{"id":51113,"date":"2026-07-01T22:29:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T22:29:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/uncategorized\/51113\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T22:29:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T22:29:43","slug":"%e6%ad%90%e5%85%83%e5%85%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e6%94%b6%e7%aa%84%e8%b7%8c%e5%b9%85%ef%bc%8c%e7%96%b2%e5%bc%b1%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e5%8f%8a%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e8%a8%80%e8%ab%96%e6%8b%96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/51113\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u6536\u7a84\u8dcc\u5e45\uff0c\u75b2\u5f31\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u6c83\u4ec0\u8a00\u8ad6\u62d6\u7d2f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u5be9\u614e"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff08EUR\/USD\uff09\u5468\u4e09\u5728\u65e9\u6bb5\u4e0b\u632b\u5f8c\u6536\u5fa9\u90e8\u5206\u5931\u5730\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u504f\u8edf\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\u62d6\u7d2f\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u6700\u65b0\u65bc1.1387\u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u8f03\u65e5\u5167\u4f4e\u4f4d1.1361\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u5168\u65e5\u4ecd\u8dcc\u7d040.30%\u3002\u5728\u8461\u8404\u7259\u8f9b\u7279\u62c9\uff08Sintra\uff09\u8209\u884c\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u8ad6\u58c7\u4e0a\uff0cWarsh\u8868\u793a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e0d\u6703\u63d0\u4f9b\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u88dc\u5145\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u5df2\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u91cd\u7533\u6062\u5fa9\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\u65b9\u9762\uff0c6\u6708ADP\u5c31\u696d\u8b8a\u52d5\u9304\u5f97\u589e\u52a09.8\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u768411.3\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f4e\u65bc5\u6708\u768412.2\u842c\u4eba\uff1bISM\u88fd\u9020\u696dPMI\u753154\u8dcc\u81f353.3\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u768454\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff09\u7531\u65e5\u5167\u9ad8\u4f4d101.59\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u7d04101.34\u3002\u6309CME FedWatch Tool\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5b9a\u50f99\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba67%\uff0c\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411\u5468\u56db\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\uff08NFP\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u524d\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5c0dECB\u518d\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u964d\u6eab\uff1bECB\u7e3d\u88c1\u62c9\u52a0\u5fb7\uff08Christine Lagarde\uff09\u8868\u793a\u98a8\u96aa\u66f4\u8da8\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u4e26\u975e\u9677\u5165\u6eef\u8139\uff0c\u800cECB\u5c07\u63a1\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u8207\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u8a0a\u865f<\/h3>\n

\u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4f8b\u59826\u6708ADP\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u79c1\u4eba\u8077\u4f4d\u50c5\u589e\u52a09.8\u842c\u500b\uff0c\u70ba\u4ea4\u6613\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8996\u4e4b\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u964d\u6eab\u901f\u5ea6\u8f03\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u516c\u958b\u8a00\u8ad6\u6240\u6697\u793a\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u9df9\u6d3e\u63aa\u8fad\u8207\u8f49\u5f31\u6578\u64da\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u80cc\u99b3\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u53ef\u4f9b\u628a\u63e1\u7684\u5f35\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ecd\u7dca\u6263\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u7684\u5f37\u786c\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u8fd1\u671f\u6578\u64da\u66f4\u5177\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08Core PCE\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u504f\u597d\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u65bc2026\u5e745\u6708\u6309\u5e74\u964d\u81f32.8%\uff0c\u5275\u903e\u5169\u5e74\u4f4e\u4f4d\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u300c\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u78ba\u6709\u56de\u843d\u300d\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff1b\u82e5\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u958b\u59cb\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u9650\u5236\u6027\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7406\u64da\u5c07\u66f4\u96e3\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5118\u7ba1\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5b9a\u50f99\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u905467%\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u6b64\u6a5f\u7387\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002\u9019\u60c5\u6cc1\u985e\u4f3c\u904e\u5f80\u5468\u671f\uff1a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u6578\u64da\u8feb\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u524d\uff0c\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u9df9\u6d3e\u63aa\u8fad\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u5c31\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u4f5c\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u5b9a\u50f9\u82e5\u4e0b\u4fee\uff0c\u5c07\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u69cb\u6210\u986f\u8457\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u975e\u8fb2\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u8207\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n

\u9451\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u660e\u65e5\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u50be\u5411\u8cb7\u5165\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08long volatility\uff09\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165EUR\/USD\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6b0a\uff08straddle\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5728\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u532f\u50f9\u51fa\u73fe\u4efb\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u6642\u7372\u5229\u3002\u82e5\u975e\u8fb2\u65b0\u589e\u8077\u4f4d\u4f4e\u65bc12\u842c\uff0c\u6216\u5c07\u78ba\u8a8d\u65b0\u7684\u8f49\u5f31\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u4e26\u5f15\u767c\u7f8e\u5143\u6025\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u9593\u4ea6\u53d7\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7d93\u6fdf\u9762\u9650\u5236\u3002\u6b50\u76df\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08Eurostat\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u53406\u6708\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u964d\u81f32.4%\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5c0dECB\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u61a7\u61ac\u964d\u6eab\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u6211\u5011\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u61c9\u66f4\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u300c\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7f8e\u5143\u8f49\u5f31\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u55ae\u7d14\u62bc\u6ce8\u300c\u6b50\u5143\u8f49\u5f37\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u82e5\u660e\u65e5\u975e\u8fb2\u78ba\u8a8d\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u52a0\u78bc\u770b\u6de1\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u5177\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u50f9\u5916\uff08out-of-the-money\uff09\u7684EUR\/USD\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call\uff09\uff0c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u70ba2026\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u95dc\u9375\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u9ede\u64ca\u6b64\u8655<\/a>\u958b\u8a2d\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236\u3002<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u8b8a\u76e4\uff1f\u3011\u7f8e\u6578\u64da\u8f49\u5f31\u517cWarsh\u62d2\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0cEUR\/USD\u4f4e\u4f4d\u56de\u5347\u4ecd\u8dcc0.3%\uff1bFedWatch\u65999\u6708\u52a0\u606f67%\u805a\u7126NFP\u3002\u901a\u8139\u964d\u6eab\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u627f\u58d3\uff0c\u5efa\u8b70\u4f48\u5c40\u8cb7\u6ce2\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50591,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51113"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51113\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}