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\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u57282026\u5e74\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u8ad6\u58c7\uff08ECB Forum on Central Banking\uff09\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c07\u4e0d\u6703\u63d0\u4f9b\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5fc5\u9808\u300c\u958b\u95e2\u65b0\u8def\u7dda\u300d\uff08chart a new course\uff09\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002Warsh\u5c07\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u5b9a\u4f4d\u70ba\u6838\u5fc3\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u7a31\u5b98\u54e1\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u6642\u50f9\u683c\u300c\u904e\u9ad8\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u91cd\u7533\u4e0d\u6703\u63a5\u53d7\u901a\u8139\u9577\u671f\u9ad8\u65bc2%\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07\u5224\u65b7\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u662f\u5426\u5177\u901a\u8139\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5f62\u5bb9AI\u71b1\u6f6e\u9996\u5148\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u300c\u975e\u5e38\u986f\u8457\u300d\u5730\u6d6e\u73fe\uff0c\u4e14\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u767c\u5c55\u65e9\u671f\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u63d0\u5230\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u4fdd\u6301\u7a69\u5065\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u7aef\u57fa\u790e\u624e\u5be6\uff0c\u4e26\u88dc\u5145\u904e\u53bb\u56db\u5468\u7684\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u5df2\u56de\u843d\u3001\u901a\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u6709\u6240\u7de9\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u53ca\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u555f\u793a<\/h3>\n

\u9451\u65bc\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u62d2\u7d55\u63d0\u4f9b\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u95dc\u9375\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u5f8c\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u57287\u670810\u65e5\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\uff08Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP\uff09\u524d\u90e8\u7f72\u8cb7\u5165\u671f\u6b0a\u5c6c\u8f03\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08CBOE VIX\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u5f98\u5f8a\u65bc13.1\u7684\u591a\u5e74\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\u76f8\u5c0d\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u727d\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u524d\u4f5c\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n

Warsh\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6578\u64da\u6539\u5584\u4e0b\u4ecd\u5f37\u786c\u634d\u885b2%\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u300c\u9ad8\u606f\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u7684\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u6216\u5c07\u5ef6\u7e8c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u95dc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08short-term interest rate futures\uff09\u76f8\u95dc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u62bc\u6ce8\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u6703\u57282026\u5e74\u5927\u5e45\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f\u3002CME FedWatch Tool\u6700\u65b0\u8b80\u6578\u4ea6\u652f\u6301\u6b64\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u986f\u793a12\u6708\u524d\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5df2\u753150%\u964d\u81f3\u4e0d\u8db325%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u677f\u584a\u6a5f\u9047\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u5c55\u671b<\/h3>\n

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07AI\u8996\u70ba\u91cd\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u672a\u78ba\u5b9a\u5176\u901a\u8139\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u70ba\u500b\u5225\u884c\u696d\u5e36\u4f86\u7368\u7279\u6a5f\u9047\u3002\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u584a\u53ef\u5ef6\u7e8c\u5f37\u52e2\uff0c\u4ee4\u4ee5\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6bd4\u91cd\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u6307\u6578\u76f8\u95dc\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff09\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u6b64\u89c0\u9ede\u4ea6\u53d7\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u5de5\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u6578\u64da\u652f\u6301\uff1a\u9996\u5b63\u975e\u8fb2\u4f01\u696d\u751f\u7522\u529b\u6309\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u9577\u90543.4%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u79d1\u6280\u5e36\u52d5\u7684\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u53ca\u7a69\u5065\u4f9b\u61c9\u7aef\u7684\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53ef\u5728\u6bcb\u9808\u904e\u5ea6\u6182\u616e\u77ed\u671f\u8870\u9000\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u964d\u4f4e\u5373\u6642\u914d\u7f6e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u5927\u7bc4\u570d\u9632\u5b88\u6027\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff09\u7684\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u4f7f\u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u53ef\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u5177\u91dd\u5c0d\u6027\u3001\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9ad8\u5ea6\u300c\u8996\u6578\u64da\u800c\u5b9a\u300d\uff08data-dependent\uff09\u4e14\u6ce2\u52d5\u504f\u4f4e\u7684\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u7576\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u5927\u5e45\u504f\u96e2\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6642\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u89f8\u767c\u6025\u5287\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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