{"id":50472,"date":"2026-05-22T11:21:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T11:21:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/47922\/"},"modified":"2026-05-22T11:21:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T11:21:07","slug":"%e8%8b%b1%e9%8e%8a%e5%9c%a81-3440%e9%99%84%e8%bf%91%e6%95%b4%e5%9b%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%96%b2%e5%bc%b1pmi%e5%8f%8a%e8%8b%b1%e5%9c%8b%e6%8e%89%e6%9c%9f%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%ae%9a%e5%83%b9%e6%86%82%e6%85%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/50472\/","title":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u938a\u57281.3440\u9644\u8fd1\u6574\u56fa\uff0c\u75b2\u5f31PMI\u53ca\u82f1\u570b\u6389\u671f\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\u6182\u616e\u62d6\u7d2f\u524d\u666f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u82f1\u938a\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u5728 1.3440 \u9644\u8fd1\u6574\u56fa\u3002\u82f1\u938a\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea\u5169\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u82f1\u570b\u300c\u6389\u671f\uff08swaps\uff0c\u6307\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u63db\u53d6\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u300d\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5de5\u9ee8\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u5411\u66f4\u5de6\u7ffc\u7acb\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u570b 5 \u6708\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff08PMI\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u91cf\u5ea6\u4f01\u696d\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u64f4\u5f35\u6216\u6536\u7e2e\uff1b\u9ad8\u65bc 50 \u4ee3\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc 50 \u4ee3\u8868\u6536\u7e2e\uff09\u986f\u793a\u79c1\u71df\u90e8\u9580\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u7d9c\u5408 PMI \u4e0b\u8dcc 4.1 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u81f3 48.5\uff0c\u70ba 13 \u500b\u6708\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u8dcc\u7a7f 50\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u6e2c\u7684 51.6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u570b\u6d3b\u52d5\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u4e0b\u884c<\/h3>\n

\u670d\u52d9\u696d PMI \u4e0b\u8dcc 4.8 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u81f3 47.9\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u7684 51.7\uff0c\u70ba 2021 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u88fd\u9020\u696d PMI \u7dad\u6301\u65bc 53.7\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u7684 53.0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u628a\u672a\u4f86 12 \u500b\u6708\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\uff08BOE\uff09\u52a0\u606f\u9810\u671f\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3 57 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bps\uff0c\u57fa\u9ede\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede = 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u70ba 75 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u300c\u7522\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3\uff08output gap\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7522\u51fa\u4e4b\u5dee\uff09\u300d\u70ba\u8ca0\uff0c\u4ecb\u4e4e\u6f5b\u5728 GDP \u7684 -1.5% \u81f3 -1.7%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u938a\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u5728 1.3440 \u9644\u8fd1\u6574\u56fa\uff0c\u4f46\u8d70\u52e2\u504f\u5f31\u3002\u4e0a\u5468 5 \u6708\u670d\u52d9\u696d PMI \u610f\u5916\u8dcc\u81f3 47.9\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u6162\uff0c\u4ee4\u82f1\u938a\u77ed\u7dda\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u5546\u696d\u6d3b\u52d5\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4ea6\u8207\u6700\u65b0 4 \u6708\u901a\u8139\u5831\u544a\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u6574\u9ad4 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u8139\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u8dcc\u81f3 1.8%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u52a0\u4e0a\u9996\u5b63 GDP \u589e\u9577\u4ea6\u4e0b\u4fee\u81f3 0.1%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6b63\u5728\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u6642\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86 BOE \u518d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u504f\u9032\u53d6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u6cbb\u53ca\u5229\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\u62d6\u7d2f\u82f1\u938a<\/h3>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\u5de5\u9ee8\u653f\u5e9c\u81ea 2024 \u5e74\u672b\u5927\u9078\u4e0a\u53f0\u5f8c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u50b3\u51fa\u4e0b\u4efd\u9810\u7b97\u6848\u6216\u8f49\u5411\u63d0\u9ad8\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7a05\u53ca\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52d9\u958b\u652f\uff1b\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u58d3\u6291\u82f1\u938a\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6389\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u53ea\u628a BOE \u52a0\u606f\u9810\u671f\u8f15\u5fae\u4e0b\u8abf\uff0c\u73fe\u4f30\u8a08\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5e74\u7d2f\u8a08\u52a0\u606f 57 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002\u56de\u9867 2025 \u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u6162\u6642\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u66fe\u66f4\u5feb\u88ab\u91cd\u4f30\uff1b\u914d\u5408 BOE \u5c0d\u8ca0\u7522\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u9810\u671f\u6216\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u88ab\u8fc5\u901f\u62b9\u8d70\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u70ba\u62bc\u6ce8\u6e1b\u606f\uff08\u5373\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8abf\uff09\u4e26\u4e0d\u610f\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n

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