{"id":48359,"date":"2026-03-04T20:00:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T20:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39216\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T20:00:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T20:00:17","slug":"%e6%a0%b9%e6%93%9a-gdp-%e5%8d%b3%e6%99%82%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%ef%bc%8cdbs-%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6-fy25-%e6%9c%83%e8%a8%88%e5%b9%b4%e5%ba%a6%e7%ac%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/48359\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6839\u64da GDP \u5373\u6642\u9810\u6e2c\uff0cDBS \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\u5370\u5ea6 FY25 \u6703\u8a08\u5e74\u5ea6\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u7684\u5f37\u52c1\u6210\u9577\u5c07\u65bc 2026 \u5e74\u521d\u964d\u6eab"},"content":{"rendered":"DBS \u96c6\u5718\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u300cGDP \u5373\u6642\u63a8\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u300d\uff08Nowcast\uff1a\u7528\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u9ad8\u983b\u6578\u64da\u5feb\u901f\u63a8\u7b97\u7576\u5b63 GDP\uff09\u4f86\u8ffd\u8e64\u5370\u5ea6\u300c\u5be6\u8cea GDP\u300d\uff08Real GDP\uff1a\u6263\u9664\u901a\u81a8\u5f8c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u8d70\u52e2\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u986f\u793a\uff0c2025 \u8ca1\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\uff08FY25 4Q\uff09\u6210\u9577\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5728 2026 \u8ca1\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff081Q26\uff09\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\n\n\u6839\u64da\u5370\u5ea6\u300c\u91cd\u65b0\u57fa\u671f\u5f8c\u7684 GDP\u300d\uff08Rebased GDP\uff1a\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5e74\u91cd\u7b97 GDP\uff0c\u8b93\u6578\u64da\u66f4\u8cbc\u8fd1\u73fe\u6cc1\uff09\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c2025 \u5e74 10\u201312 \u6708\uff08FY25 4Q\uff09\u5be6\u8cea GDP \u5e74\u589e 7.8%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc 2025 \u5e74 7\u20139 \u6708\u7684 8.4%\u3002\u8a72\u5b63\u5ea6\u8207\u300c\u9593\u63a5\u7a05\u300d\uff08Indirect tax\uff1a\u5982\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u7a05\u7b49\uff0c\u975e\u76f4\u63a5\u5c0d\u500b\u4eba\u6240\u5f97\u8ab2\u7a05\uff09\u7684\u8abf\u6574\u3001\u7bc0\u6176\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u6d3b\u52d5\u56de\u6eab\u8207\u8fb2\u6751\u8fb2\u4f5c\u60c5\u6cc1\u6539\u5584\u6709\u95dc\u3002\n\n<h3>Growth Momentum And Nowcast Signal<\/h3>\n\u5c0d FY26 \u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u57fa\u671f\u5f8c\u7684\u6578\u5217\u986f\u793a\u5be6\u8cea GDP \u6210\u9577\u7387\u4e0a\u4fee\u81f3 7.6%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u521d\u6b65\u9810\u4f30\u7684 7.4%\u3002\u9019\u63a5\u8fd1\u5831\u544a\u63d0\u5230\u7684 7.7% \u9810\u6e2c\u3002\n\nNowcast \u6a21\u578b\u9810\u4f30 1Q26 \u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u81f3 7.2%\u3002\u8f49\u5f31\u8207\u5de5\u696d\u6d3b\u52d5\u8f03\u5f31\u3001\u8ca8\u904b\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e58\u7528\u8eca\u8207\u5546\u7528\u8eca\u92b7\u552e\u653e\u6162\u6709\u95dc\u3002\n\n\u5c31 2026 \u66c6\u5e74\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5168\u5e74\u6210\u9577\u9810\u4f30\u70ba 6.5%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc 7.8%\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\u9019\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0a\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\n\n\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u5f37\u52c1\u6210\u9577\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\u964d\u6eab\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u9810\u6e2c\u986f\u793a 2026 \u5e74 1\u20133 \u6708\u671f\u9593\u53ef\u80fd\u653e\u7de9\u5230\u7d04 7.2%\u3002\u9019\u8868\u793a\u5148\u524d\u7684\u9ad8\u6210\u9577\u52d5\u80fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u904e\u9ad8\u9ede\u3002\n\n<h3>Portfolio Hedging And Volatility Positioning<\/h3>\n\u9810\u671f\u7684\u653e\u7de9\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u5e02\u5834\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08Volatility\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9707\u76ea\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u3002India VIX\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5df2\u5f9e 2025 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u7d04 12 \u7684\u4f4e\u9ede\u5347\u81f3 14.5\u3002\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u9577\u5929\u671f\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u300d\uff08Long-dated options\uff1a\u5230\u671f\u6642\u9593\u8f03\u9060\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u66f4\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u300c\u8de8\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\u300d\uff08Straddle\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u76f8\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u800c\u975e\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u3002\n\n\u57fa\u65bc\u6574\u9ad4\u5c55\u671b\uff0c\u61c9\u8003\u616e\u70ba\u9577\u671f\u6301\u80a1\u90e8\u4f4d\u505a\u300c\u907f\u96aa\u300d\uff08Hedging\uff1a\u7528\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\u964d\u4f4e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u3002\u8cb7\u5165 Nifty 50 \u7684\u300c\u8ce3\u6b0a\u300d\uff08Put options\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u7372\u5229\u3001\u7528\u4f86\u9632\u8dcc\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u9078 2026 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u6216 5 \u6708\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8f03\u7701\u6210\u672c\u7684\u7de9\u885d\uff0c\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u6f5b\u5728\u56de\u6a94\u3002\u8a72\u6307\u6578\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u5927\u6f32\u5f8c\u8d70\u52e2\u8f49\u70ba\u505c\u6eef\uff0c\u82e5\u8dcc\u7834\u76ee\u524d\u300c\u652f\u6490\u4f4d\u300d\uff08Support\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u6b62\u8dcc\u7684\u5340\u9593\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\n\n\u653e\u7de9\u5728\u6c7d\u8eca\u8207\u7269\u6d41\u7b49\u7522\u696d\u7279\u5225\u660e\u986f\u30022026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u5546\u7528\u8eca\u92b7\u91cf\u5e74\u6e1b 4%\uff0c\u5370\u8b49\u9810\u6e2c\u6240\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u8ca8\u904b\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u90e8\u5206\u6c7d\u8eca\u8207\u7269\u6d41\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u6c7d\u8eca\u6307\u6578\u63a1\u53d6\u300c\u504f\u7a7a\u671f\u8ca8\u90e8\u4f4d\u300d\uff08Bearish futures\uff1a\u7528\u671f\u8ca8\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5de5\u696d\u8207\u51fa\u53e3\u5c0e\u5411\u80a1\u7968\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u5f8c\u7e8c\u4e5f\u8f03\u8106\u5f31\u30022026 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u300c\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7522\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08IIP\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u88fd\u9020\u3001\u63a1\u7926\u8207\u516c\u7528\u4e8b\u696d\u7522\u51fa\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u986f\u793a\u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u81f3 3.5%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u4f4e\u65bc 2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u8d85\u904e 5% \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u5728\u6f32\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u696d\u80a1\u4e0a\u300c\u8ce3\u51fa\u5099\u514c\u8cb7\u6b0a\u300d\uff08Covered call\uff1a\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u6703\u9650\u5236\u4e0a\u6f32\u7a7a\u9593\uff09\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u9650\u5236\u4e0a\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u540c\u6642\u589e\u52a0\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u6536\u5165\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5370\u5ea6\u6210\u9577\u898b\u9802\uff1fDBS Nowcast \u6307FY25 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