{"id":48244,"date":"2026-03-04T03:48:41","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:48:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/39082\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T03:48:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:48:41","slug":"%e7%be%a9%e5%a4%a7%e5%88%a9%e7%b6%93%e6%ad%90%e7%9b%9f%e7%b5%b1%e4%b8%80%e8%aa%bf%e5%92%8c%e7%9a%84%e5%b9%b4%e5%ba%a6%e6%b6%88%e8%b2%bb%e8%80%85%e7%89%a9%e5%83%b9%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8%ef%bc%88cpi-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/48244\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u7d93\u6b50\u76df\u7d71\u4e00\u8abf\u548c\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff09\u65bc2\u6708\u5347\u81f31.6%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u76841.1%"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u7684\u300c\u6b50\u76df\u7d71\u4e00\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08EU-harmonised consumer price index\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 HICP\uff1b\u610f\u601d\u662f\u7528\u6b50\u76df\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u8861\u91cf\u7269\u50f9\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5728 2 \u6708\u5e74\u589e 1.6%\u3002\n\n\u7d50\u679c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u7684 1.1%\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5c0d ECB \u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>\n\u9019\u6b21\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u901a\u81a8\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u5b83\u8868\u793a\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7b2c\u4e09\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7684\u300c\u57fa\u790e\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u300d\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8f03\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u77ed\u671f\u56de\u843d\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u529b\u91cf\uff09\u6bd4\u5e02\u5834\u60f3\u50cf\u66f4\u96e3\u964d\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u6aa2\u8996\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u300d\uff08European Central Bank\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 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\u66f4\u4e45\u7dad\u6301\u300c\u504f\u7dca\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u300d\uff08restrictive monetary policy\uff1b\u7528\u8f03\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6291\u5236\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u58d3\u4f4e\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u300c\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u300d\uff08short-term interest rate, STIR futures\uff1b\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u6e96\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u51fa\u73fe\u53cd\u61c9\uff1a2026 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u7684\u300cEuribor \u5408\u7d04\u300d\uff08Euribor contracts\uff1b\u4ee5\u6b50\u5143\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u62c6\u501f\u5229\u7387\u4f5c\u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u4fee\u4eca\u5e74\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u616e\u8ce3\u51fa\u9019\u4e9b\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u5176\u300c\u8ce3\u6b0a\u300d\uff08put options\uff1b\u4e00\u7a2e\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff0c\u5141\u8a31\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u505a\u907f\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u81f3\u5c11\u6392\u9664\u300c\u4e00\u6b21\u5b8c\u6574\u7684 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u964d\u606f\u300d\uff0825 basis point cut\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u662f 0.01%\uff0c25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u5c31\u662f 0.25%\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u504f\u9ad8\u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u7684 FTSE MIB \u6307\u6578\u3002\u5229\u7387\u300c\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6a94\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff1b\u5229\u7387\u9577\u6642\u9593\u4e0d\u964d\uff09\u6703\u64e0\u58d3\u4f01\u696d\u5229\u6f64\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230 VSTOXX\uff08\u6b50\u6d32\u4e3b\u8981\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6a19\u300dvolatility gauge\uff1b\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6578\uff09\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u9031\u4e0a\u5347\u63a5\u8fd1 8%\uff0c\u4f86\u5230 15 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u6b50\u6d32\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u907f\u96aa\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u77ed\u671f\u56de\u6a94\u3002\n\n<h3>\u6b50\u5143\u8207\u7f8e\u5143\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67<\/h3>\n\u5728\u5916\u532f\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u9019\u8b93\u6b50\u5143\u66f4\u6709\u652f\u6490\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08US Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31 Fed\uff1b\u5236\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u7684\u592e\u884c\uff09\u4ecd\u8868\u793a\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u665a\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u7406\u7531\u662f\u4e0a\u6708\u85aa\u8cc7\u6210\u9577\u6578\u64da\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u9019\u6703\u5f62\u6210\u300c\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\uff08policy divergence trade\uff1b\u5229\u7528\u5169\u500b\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u532f\u7387\uff09\u3002\u6211\u5011\u504f\u5411\u5e03\u5c40 EUR\/USD \u8d70\u5f37\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u300c\u8cb7\u6b0a\u300d\uff08call 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