{"id":47651,"date":"2026-05-18T20:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T20:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/47651\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T20:27:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T20:27:54","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b30%e5%b9%b4%e6%9c%9f%e5%9c%8b%e5%82%b5%e5%ad%b3%e6%81%af%e7%8e%87%e4%bc%81%e7%a9%a95%e5%8e%98%e4%bb%a5%e4%b8%8a%e3%80%80%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%82%b5%e5%b8%82%e6%8b%8b%e5%94%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/47651\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b30\u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4f01\u7a695\u5398\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3000\u5168\u7403\u50b5\u5e02\u62cb\u552e\u52a0\u5287\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u5728\u5468\u4e94\u5168\u7403\u50b5\u5e02\u62cb\u552e\u4e0b\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e26\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u718a\u5e02\u9661\u5ced\u5316\u300d\uff08bear steepening\uff1a\u5728\u50b5\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\uff0c\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u5347\u5f97\u8f03\u77ed\u5e74\u671f\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u4ee4\u5b73\u606f\u66f2\u7dda\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u659c\uff09\u8d70\u52e2\uff1b\u6cb9\u50f9\u4ea6\u540c\u6b65\u4e0a\u63da\u300230\u5e74\u671f\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u9023\u7e8c\u56db\u65e5\u4f01\u7a695%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u70ba2007\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u6642\u9810\u671f\u57282026\u5e747\u6708\u81f32027\u5e746\u6708\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07\u300c\u6536\u7dca\u300d\uff08tightening\uff1a\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7d0432\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bp\uff1a\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c1bp=0.01\u5398\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u8a72\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5927\u7d04\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u591a\u4e00\u9ede\u3002\u7126\u9ede\u6b63\u8f49\u5411\uff1a\u5728\u73fe\u6c34\u5e73\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u8cb7\u76e4\u6703\u5426\u5165\u5e02\u627f\u63a5\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u672a\u4f86\u95dc\u9375\u50ac\u5316\u56e0\u7d20<\/h3>\n<p>\u5468\u4e09\u7684\u7f8e\u570b20\u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u62cd\u8ce3\uff0c\u6599\u5728\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u50b5\u5238\u6025\u8dcc\u5f8c\u6210\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u3002\u5468\u4e00\u5c07\u516c\u5e03TIC\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\uff08TIC flows\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u8de8\u5883\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u8207\u5916\u8cc7\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u570b\u8b49\u5238\u6578\u64da\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8a55\u4f30\u5916\u8cc7\u5c0d3\u6708\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u65e5\u7a0b\u8f03\u6e05\u6de1\uff0c\u5468\u4e09\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\uff08minutes\uff1a\u6703\u5f8c\u7d00\u8981\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u59d4\u54e1\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5167\u5bb9\uff09\u6599\u70ba\u7126\u9ede\u3002\u8a72\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u7684\u8072\u660e\u63aa\u8fad\u51fa\u73fe\u4e09\u540d\u504f\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff1a\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u3001\u5f37\u8abf\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u610f\u898b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u5916\uff0cWaller\u3001Paulson\u53caBarr\u4ea6\u5c07\u767c\u8868\u8b1b\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u6b63\u898b\u5230\u9577\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u5927\u5e45\u62cb\u552e\uff0c\u4ee430\u5e74\u671f\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u5347\u7a7f5%\uff0c\u70ba2007\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u3002\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u6025\u5347\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08derivatives\uff1a\u5176\u50f9\u503c\u8ddf\u96a8\u6a19\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u5982\u50b5\u5238\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u532f\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u61c9\u7559\u610f\u50b5\u5e02\u53ca\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6216\u64f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>\n<p>\u9ad8\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u8207\u901a\u8139\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u6700\u65b04\u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u7269\u50f9\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u4ecd\u53473.7%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u672a\u9000\u3002\u76f8\u8f032025\u5e74\u5e95\u5e02\u5834\u539f\u5148\u61a7\u61ac\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6e1b\u606f\uff08cutting rates\uff1a\u4e0b\u8abf\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u88ab\u8feb\u91cd\u65b0\u8a08\u5165\uff1a\u6700\u9072\u81f3\u660e\u5e746\u6708\u524d\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u50b5\u5e02\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u6307\u6a19MOVE\u6307\u6578\uff08MOVE Index\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u671f\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd12025\u5e74\u521d\u5730\u5340\u9280\u884c\u58d3\u529b\u6642\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u5229\u7528\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7372\u5229\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff1a\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u6295\u8cc7\u65bc\u4e3b\u8981\u50b5\u5238ETF\uff08ETF\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u3002\u5468\u4e0920\u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u62cd\u8ce3\uff0c\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0b\u662f\u5426\u9858\u610f\u627f\u63a5\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6e2c\u8a66\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u4ea6\u5229\u597d\u7f8e\u5143\uff1a\u8f03\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u5438\u5f15\u6d77\u5916\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u7e8c\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u76f8\u5c0d\u300c\u504f\u9d3f\u6d3e\u300d\uff08dovish\uff1a\u50be\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\u3001\u91cd\u8996\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff09\u7684\u592e\u884c\u6240\u5c6c\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u65e5\u5713\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u90e8\u7f72\u4e0a\uff0c\u505a\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u65e5\u5713\uff08long USD\/JPY\uff1a\u9810\u671f\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5c0d\u65e5\u5713\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u6216\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80a1\u5e02\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u9577\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\u5c0d\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8207\u589e\u9577\u80a1\u6253\u64ca\u8f03\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u4f30\u503c\u4f9d\u8cf4\u8f03\u9060\u671f\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4ee5\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff1a\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff1a\u7528\u76f8\u53cd\u5009\u4f4d\u6e1b\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u504f\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u6307\u6578\u7d44\u5408\u3002\u672c\u5468\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u5c07\u5099\u53d7\u6ce8\u8996\uff0c\u82e5\u78ba\u8a8d\u5167\u90e8\u504f\u9df9\u5206\u6b67\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u6216\u518d\u89f8\u767c\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u80a1\u4efd\u7684\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u570b30\u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u7a69\u5b885\u5398\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f15\u7206\u5168\u7403\u50b5\u5e02\u518d\u6380\u62cb\u552e\u6f6e\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7e8c\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u9577\u50b5\u58d3\u529b\u52a0\u6df1\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u8f49\u5411\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":125,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/125"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47651\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}