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ING\u8868\u793a\uff0cEUR\/GBP\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u300d\uff08political risk premium\uff1a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u56e0\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u7a69\u800c\u8981\u6c42\u984d\u5916\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u532f\u50f9\uff09\u3002\u5176\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u82f1\u938a\u7d04\u67090.3%\u7684\u300c\u9ad8\u4f30\u300d\uff08overvaluation\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u9ad8\u65bc\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u503c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u6cbb\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u7684\u82f1\u938a\u524d\u666f<\/h3>\n

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\u82f1\u938a\u4ea6\u56e0\u5831\u9053\u6307\u5b89\u8fea\u00b7\u822c\u54b8\uff08Andy Burnham\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u722d\u53d6\u570b\u6703\u8b70\u5e2d\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u7af6\u9010\u9ee8\u9b41\u800c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u5831\u9053\u628a\u6b64\u8209\u8207\u5916\u754c\u6182\u616e\u300c\u653e\u68c4\u8ca1\u653f\u898f\u5247\u300d\u53ca\u5176\u5c0d\u82f1\u570b\u516c\u5171\u8ca1\u653f\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u76f8\u9023\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u518d\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u82f1\u938a\u53d7\u58d3\uff0c\u65e9\u65bc2025\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6eab\u3002GBP\/USD\u300c\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u671f\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d\uff08one-month implied volatility\uff1a\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u3001\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u672a\u4f86\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u81f39.5%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc\u4eca\u5e74\u8f03\u65e9\u6642\u7d046.2%\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u70ba\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\uff0c\u56e0\u9996\u76f8\u9818\u5c0e\u5730\u4f4d\u518d\u6b21\u53d7\u5230\u8cea\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u8207\u5c0d\u6c96\u8003\u616e<\/h3>\n

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EUR\/GBP\u4ecd\u662f\u7126\u9ede\uff0c\u6b63\u59822025\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u9818\u5c0e\u6182\u616e\u6642\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u8a72\u4ea4\u53c9\u76e4\u73fe\u6b63\u6e2c\u8a660.8800\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe\u6b63\u5f0f\u9818\u5c0e\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u89f8\u767c\u532f\u50f9\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u7834\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u77ed\u5e74\u671fEUR\/GBP\u300c\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff08call options\uff1a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u53ef\u63a7\u4e0b\u62bc\u6ce8\u82f1\u938a\u8868\u73fe\u843d\u5f8c\u3002<\/p>\n

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