{"id":46855,"date":"2026-05-06T17:19:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T17:19:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46855\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T17:19:45","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T17:19:45","slug":"adp%e9%a1%af%e7%a4%ba4%e6%9c%88%e7%a7%81%e4%ba%ba%e5%83%b1%e5%93%a1%e6%96%b0%e5%a2%9e10-9%e8%90%ac%e4%ba%ba%e3%80%80%e9%a2%a8%e9%9a%aa%e5%81%8f%e5%a5%bd%e5%9b%9e%e5%8d%87%e4%b8%8b%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46855\/","title":{"rendered":"ADP\u986f\u793a4\u6708\u79c1\u4eba\u50f1\u54e1\u65b0\u589e10.9\u842c\u4eba\u3000\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u597d\u56de\u5347\u4e0b\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u8dcc\u7a7f98"},"content":{"rendered":"

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ADP\u6307\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u53ca\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u696d\u62db\u8058\u8868\u73fe\u8f03\u5f37\uff0c\u4e2d\u578b\u4f01\u696d\u8868\u73fe\u504f\u5f31\u3002ADP\u300a\u5c31\u696d\u8b8a\u52d5\u5831\u544a\u300b\uff08\u4f30\u7b97\u79c1\u4eba\u4f01\u696d\u65b0\u589e\u6216\u6e1b\u5c11\u8077\u4f4d\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff09\u65bcGMT 12:15\u516c\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n

Adp April Jobs Surprise<\/h3>\n

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ADP\u5831\u544a\u5e38\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u89c0\u5bdf\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u4e26\u70ba\u5169\u65e5\u5f8c\u901a\u5e38\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u300a\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u300b\uff08NFP\uff0c\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u524d\u77bb\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5169\u8005\u7d50\u679c\u53ef\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u986f\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u504f\u597d\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff08risk-on\uff0c\u5373\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u8f03\u9858\u610f\u8cb7\u5165\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u3001\u6e1b\u6301\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u7684\u6c23\u6c1b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u7e8c\u53d7\u58d3\uff0c\u8dcc\u7a7f98.00\u3002\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u6c34\u5e73\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u963b\u529b\u898b99.00\u201399.20\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u70ba100.00\u53ca100.20\uff1b\u652f\u6301\u4f4d\u572897.60\u201397.70\u53ca96.50\u3002<\/p>\n

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e26\u6709\u4e09\u540d\u5b98\u54e1\u652f\u6301\u628a\u8072\u660e\u4e2d\u7684\u300c\u5bec\u9b06\u50be\u5411\u300d\uff08easing bias\uff0c\u5373\u504f\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u63aa\u8fad\uff09\u522a\u9664\u3002CME Group FedWatch Tool\uff08\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6e1b\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4f30\u8a08\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u884c\u52d5\u6216\u8981\u52302027\u5e74\u4e2d\u624d\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

Market Implications And Fed Outlook<\/h3>\n

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\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u7559\u610f\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u9ede\uff0c\u662fADP\u8207NFP\u9577\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u80cc\u96e2\uff08divergence\uff0c\u5373\u5169\u5957\u6578\u64da\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff09\u3002\u82e54\u6708NFP\u986f\u793a\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5de5\u8cc7\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\u6216\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c07\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u7684\u53d6\u6368\u66f4\u68d8\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u5df2\u75312025\u5e74\u7684\u300c\u504f\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\u300d\u8f49\u70ba\u62bc\u6ce82027\u5e74\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u8207SOFR\u639b\u920e\u7684\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08SOFR\u70ba\u300c\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff1b\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u6307\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u6389\u671f\u7b49\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u6216\u6295\u6a5f\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u6b63\u53cd\u6620\u300c\u9ad8\u606f\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u5f8c\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u51fa\u73fe\u8f03\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u5347\u8dcc\u5e45\u5ea6\u52a0\u5927\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u901a\u8139\u672a\u5982\u9810\u671f\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u7acb\u5834\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f37\u52c1\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u5f31\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u8ca8\u5e63\u671f\u6b0a\uff08currency options\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u532f\u7387\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u3001\u8ce6\u4e88\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6b0a\u5229\u4f46\u975e\u7fa9\u52d9\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u64cd\u4f5c\u7a7a\u9593\u3002DXY\u8dcc\u7a7f98.00\u652f\u6301\u4f4d\u5177\u6280\u8853\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u7528\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u6a19\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u5c0d\u6c96\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u518d\u8dcc\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u82e5\u4e2d\u6771\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u6a19\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u53ef\u7528\u4f5c\u6355\u6349\u7f8e\u5143\u77ed\u7dda\u6025\u5f48\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53d7\u5730\u7de3\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5404\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u6240\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u30022022\u5e74\u521d\u4fc4\u70cf\u885d\u7a81\u6642\u4ea6\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0cVIX\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u80a1\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff09\u591a\u6b21\u9ad8\u65bc30\u3002\u671f\u6b0a\u4fdd\u8cbb\u5728\u9ad8\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e0b\u901a\u5e38\u8f03\u6602\u8cb4\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4fe1\u7528\u50f9\u5dee\uff08credit spreads\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u53ca\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u57f7\u884c\u50f9\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u4e26\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u9650\u5236\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7bc4\u570d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

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