{"id":46752,"date":"2026-05-05T21:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T21:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46752\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T21:45:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T21:45:00","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e8%98%ad%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%ef%bc%88rabobank%ef%bc%89jane-foley%ef%bc%9adxy%e5%be%98%e5%be%8a%e6%96%bc%e9%97%9c%e9%8d%b5%e7%a7%bb%e5%8b%95%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e7%b7%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46752\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u862d\u5408\u4f5c\u9280\u884c\uff08Rabobank\uff09Jane Foley\uff1aDXY\u5f98\u5f8a\u65bc\u95dc\u9375\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u4e0b\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7336\u8c6b\u52a0\u78bc\u7f8e\u5143\u9577\u5009"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rabobank \u7684 Jane Foley \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u6b63\u63a5\u8fd1\u5176 100 \u65e5\u53ca 200 \u65e5**\u7c21\u55ae\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda**\uff08SMA\uff0c\u4ee5\u904e\u53bb\u6307\u5b9a\u65e5\u6578\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u50f9\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u89c0\u5bdf\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u5728 98.479 \u53ca 98.568\u3002\u5979\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6c34\u5e73\u6b63\u5f62\u6210**\u963b\u529b\u4f4d**\uff08\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\u8f03\u96e3\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u5340\u57df\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u504f\u5be9\u614e\uff0c\u4e0d\u6025\u65bc\u589e\u52a0**\u7f8e\u5143\u9577\u5009**\uff08\u770b\u597d\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6301\u5009\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Foley \u7e8c\u7a31\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u7f8e\u5143\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0a\u5347\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd1\u671f\u5347\u5e45\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u56de\u5410\u3002\u5979\u628a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684**\u907f\u96aa**\u89d2\u8272\uff08\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u5347\u6eab\u6642\u8cc7\u91d1\u50be\u5411\u6d41\u5165\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u5176\u9ad8**\u6d41\u52d5\u6027**\uff08\u5bb9\u6613\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3001\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u5927\u3001\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5dee\u50f9\u8f03\u7d30\uff09\u53ca\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u5ee3\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Dollar Outlook And Market Positioning<\/h3>\n<p>Rabobank \u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4eca\u5e74\u4ecd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u6216\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86 3 \u81f3 6 \u500b\u6708\u5167\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u6b50\u5143\u6eab\u548c\u8f49\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Rabobank \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e0d\u9810\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6b50\u5143\u9577\u5009\u6703\u56de\u5230\u53bb\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u53c8\u6307\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74 EUR\/USD\uff08\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u5373\u4f7f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u529b\u5ea6\u672a\u5fc5\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u5728\u7d04 98.50 \u9644\u8fd1\u53d7 100 \u65e5\u53ca 200 \u65e5\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u6240\u9650\u3002\u7576\u6642\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u4e0d\u592a\u9858\u610f\u628a\u7f8e\u5143\u63a8\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u5143\u6191\u85c9\u5176\u7121\u53ef\u6bd4\u64ec\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u4ecd\u6709\u8f49\u5f37\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u5f8c\u8d70\u52e2\u4ea6\u5370\u8b49\u4e0a\u8ff0\u89c0\u9ede\uff0cDXY \u73fe\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u5347\u81f3\u7d04 105.20\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6e1b\u606f\u88ab**\u901a\u8139\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u9ad8**\u6240\u62d6\u6162\uff1b\u6700\u65b0 2026 \u5e74 4 \u6708 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u8139\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u5347\u5e45\u610f\u5916\u56de\u5347\u81f3 3.1%\u3002\u9019\u8feb\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u91cd\u65b0\u8abf\u6574\u9810\u671f\uff1a\u7531\u539f\u5148\u4f30\u8a08\u4eca\u5e74\u6e1b\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\uff0c\u6539\u70ba\u50c5\u9810\u671f\u4e00\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Implications For Derivatives And Hedging<\/h3>\n<p>\u5c0d**\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177**\uff08\u50f9\u503c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u57fa\u790e\u8cc7\u7522\u5982\u532f\u7387\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143**\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a**\uff08call option\uff0c\u65bc\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8cb7\u5165 EUR\/USD \u7b49\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u7684**\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a**\uff08put option\uff0c\u65bc\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u4ecd\u5c6c\u53ef\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u91cb\u51fa\u300c\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u671f\u6b0a\u7684**\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45**\uff08\u5e02\u5834\u5f9e\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5728 3 \u500b\u6708\u5408\u7d04\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u7d04 7.5%\u3002\u9019\u985e\u74b0\u5883\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u5143\u7e8c\u5f37\u6216\u6b50\u5143\u518d\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8a8d\u70ba\u9700\u8981\u589e\u52a0\u6b50\u5143\u9577\u5009\u3002EUR\/USD \u76ee\u524d\u5728 1.0550 \u4e4b\u4e0a\u7ad9\u7a69\u4ecd\u6709\u56f0\u96e3\uff0c\u53cd\u5f48\u6599\u96e3\u6301\u4e45\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528**\u9060\u671f\u5408\u7d04**\uff08forward contract\uff0c\u96d9\u65b9\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u4ea4\u6536\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u9396\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u70ba\u6b50\u5143**\u61c9\u6536\u6b3e**\uff08receivables\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u5c07\u6536\u53d6\u7684\u6b3e\u9805\uff09\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u6216\u7dad\u6301 EUR\/USD \u7684**\u671f\u8ca8**\uff08futures\uff0c\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3001\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u77ed\u5009\uff08\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u6703\u8f03\u5be9\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u70ba\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u722d\u7aef\u53ca\u5730\u5340\u4e0d\u7a69\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u5c24\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u9019\u5730\u4f4d\u4e3b\u8981\u6e90\u65bc\u5176\u6df1\u539a\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u8ca8\u5e63\u96e3\u4ee5\u6bd4\u64ec\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u57fa\u790e\u512a\u52e2\u70ba\u7f8e\u5143\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u5373\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65e5\u5f8c\u8f49\u5411\u5bec\u9b06\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u6216\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8377\u862d\u5408\u4f5c\u9280\u884cJane 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