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\u7f8e\u570b RealClearMarkets\/TIPP \u7d93\u6fdf\u6a02\u89c0\u6307\u6578\uff08Economic Optimism Index\uff0c\u91cf\u5ea6\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff095 \u6708\u5347\u81f3 42.6\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u7684 42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6307\u6578\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc 50\uff0850 \u70ba\u300c\u6a02\u89c0\u300d\u8207\u300c\u60b2\u89c0\u300d\u7684\u5206\u754c\u7dda\uff09\u30025 \u6708\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u60c5\u7dd2\u96d6\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u504f\u60b2\u89c0\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a02\u89c0\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027<\/h3>\n

5 \u6708\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a02\u89c0\u6307\u6578\u70ba 42.6\uff0c\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u53cd\u6620\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u660e\u986f\u60b2\u89c0\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u5f37\uff0c\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u300c\u672a\u6709\u66f4\u5dee\u5f97\u90a3\u9ebc\u5feb\u300d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9019\u5c6c\u65bc\u300c\u5187\u5481\u5dee\u300d\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6216\u53ef\u6e1b\u8f15\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u77ed\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6182\u616e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8ce3\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08\u5373\u900f\u904e\u671f\u6b0a\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5e02\u5834\u77ed\u671f\u4e0d\u6703\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u3002\u5728 VIX\uff08\u6ce2\u52d5\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86 30 \u65e5\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u7d04 18 \u5f98\u5f8a\u4e0b\uff0c\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u7684\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money puts\uff0c\u5373\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u4f4e\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u6cbd\u51fa\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u53ef\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff0c\u57fa\u65bc\u77ed\u671f\u6025\u8dcc\u6a5f\u6703\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002\u6211\u5011\u66fe\u898b\u5230 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u300c\u8870\u9000\u6050\u614c\u300d\u672a\u51fa\u73fe\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u5e45\u6025\u8dcc\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u6216\u662f\u8f03\u5c0f\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n

\u55ae\u4e00\u6578\u64da\u672a\u5fc5\u6539\u8b8a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff09\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f 4 \u6708\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u504f\u7dca\uff08tight labor market\uff0c\u5373\u8077\u4f4d\u9700\u6c42\u9ad8\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4f4e\uff09\uff0c\u65b0\u589e 19 \u842c\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u9019\u7a0d\u70ba\u964d\u4f4e\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u300c\u5927\u5e45\u6e1b\u606f\u300d\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6703\u8abf\u6574\u5229\u7387\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u6301\u5009\uff08interest rate derivatives\uff0c\u5982\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\u7b49\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u9df9\u7acb\u5834\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u8f03\u8457\u91cd\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\u3001\u50be\u5411\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u914d\u5408\u4e0a\u6708\u6838\u5fc3 PCE \u901a\u8139\uff08core PCE\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u958b\u652f\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u70ba\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u95dc\u9375\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4ecd\u504f\u9ecf\u6027\uff08sticky\uff0c\u5373\u56de\u843d\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\uff09\u65bc 2.9%\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u60c5\u7dd2\u6578\u64da\u5f37\u5316\u300c\u589e\u9577\u504f\u6162\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709\u97cc\u6027\u300d\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u3002\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u8f03\u9069\u5408\u5340\u9593\u5e02\u7b56\u7565\uff08range-bound market\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u4e0a\u843d\uff09\u800c\u975e\u55ae\u908a\u5927\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba SPX\uff08\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u671f\u6b0a\u5e38\u7528\u4ee3\u865f\uff09\u7684\u9435\u5140\u9df9\u7b56\u7565\uff08iron condor\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u6cbd\u3001\u4e26\u4ee5\u66f4\u50f9\u5916\u671f\u6b0a\u4f5c\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u7dad\u6301\u5340\u9593\uff09\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u6216\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u70ba\u5340\u9593\u5e02\u4f5c\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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