{"id":46730,"date":"2026-05-05T15:41:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T15:41:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46730\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T15:41:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T15:41:13","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8bredbook%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8%e6%8c%89%e5%b9%b4%e5%8d%87%e8%87%b37-8%ef%bc%8c%e8%bc%83%e5%89%8d%e5%80%bc7-7%e7%95%a5%e7%82%ba%e4%b8%8a%e5%8d%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46730\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570bRedbook\u6307\u6578\u6309\u5e74\u5347\u81f37.8%\uff0c\u8f03\u524d\u503c7.7%\u7565\u70ba\u4e0a\u5347"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u570b Redbook \u6307\u6578\uff08\u6309\u5e74\uff095\u6708\u5347\u81f37.8%\uff0c\u524d\u503c\u70ba7.7%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Redbook \u6307\u6578\u5347\u81f37.8%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6d88\u8cbb\u4ecd\u7136\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u5730\u5f37\u97cc\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u5236\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u77ed\u671f\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u53d7\u6311\u6230\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u4e00\u500b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u5f37\u52c1\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u66f4\u300c\u9ecf\u6027\u300d\uff08\u5373\u901a\u8139\u8f03\u96e3\u56de\u843d\u3001\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u6642\u9593\u66f4\u9577\uff09\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u898b\u904e\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u9019\u8feb\u4f7f\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u62bc\u6ce8\u5373\u5c07\u653e\u5bec\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5373\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u653e\u6162\u6536\u7dca\u6b65\u4f10\uff09\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Implications For Fed Policy<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u6578\u64da\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u590f\u5b63\u6e1b\u606f\u300d\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u660e\u986f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8207\u6578\u5468\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u6d41\u770b\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u7559\u610f\u8207\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u639b\u920e\u7684\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08\u5373\u7531\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u884d\u751f\u3001\u7528\u4f5c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u4ee5\u300c\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u300d\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f\u5ef6\u5f8c\uff0c\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\u4e00\u822c\u6703\u5411\u4e0b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u628a\u300c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u8a08\u5165\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u63a8\u9072\u81f32026\u5e74\u5e95\u751a\u81f32027\u5e74\u3002\u829d\u5546\u6240\uff08CME\uff09FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\uff08\u4ee5\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u8b70\u606f\u7d50\u679c\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u6578\u64da\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u7d71\u8a08\u5df2\u986f\u793a\uff0c7\u6708\u6e1b\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u5728\u4e00\u5468\u5167\u753160%\u964d\u81f3\u4e0d\u8db345%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6d88\u8cbb\u6d3b\u52d5\u6301\u7e8c\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u4ee4\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5927\u3002VIX\uff08\u6a19\u666e500\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6a19\u300d\uff09\u65e9\u524d\u5728\u7d0416\u7684\u4f4e\u4f4d\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0c\u6216\u9762\u81e8\u4e0a\u884c\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u4ee4\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff08\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\/\u6ea2\u50f9\uff09\u8b8a\u8cb4\u3002\u5c0d\u6c96\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u964d\u4f4e\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165 SPDR \u6a19\u666e500 ETF\uff08SPY\uff09\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8cb7\u5165 VIX \u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u5347\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u300c\u5229\u7387\u9577\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\u300d\uff08higher-for-longer\uff0c\u6307\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u66f4\u4e45\uff09\u7684\u6182\u616e\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u96f6\u552e\u8868\u73fe\u5f37\u901a\u5e38\u5229\u597d\u975e\u5fc5\u9700\u6d88\u8cbb\u80a1\uff08consumer discretionary\uff0c\u5373\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u65c5\u904a\u3001\u53ef\u9078\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u7b49\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u597d\u6642\u8f03\u53d7\u60e0\u7684\u677f\u584a\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u5c0d\u5927\u5e02\u53ef\u80fd\u69cb\u6210\u58d3\u529b\u30022025\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u53ef\u84cb\u904e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u589e\u9577\u677f\u584a\u3002\u7db2\u4e0a\u641c\u5c0b\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\uff08recession risk\uff0c\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff09\u7684\u641c\u5c0b\u91cf\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u4e0a\u534715%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u6182\u616e\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6216\u9700\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7dca\uff08tighter policy\uff0c\u5373\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u4ee5\u51b7\u537b\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Market Positioning Considerations<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u570bRedbook\u96f6\u552e\u6307\u6578\u6309\u5e74\u5347\u81f37.8%\uff0c\u8f03\u524d\u503c7.7%\u5fae\u5347\uff1b\u6d88\u8cbb\u52d5\u529b\u7e8c\u5f37\uff0c\u6216\u652f\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\u97cc\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u6e1b\u606f\u9810\u671f\u518d\u6dfb\u8b8a\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46730\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}