{"id":46659,"date":"2026-05-05T01:11:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T01:11:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46659\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T01:11:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T01:11:46","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e6%9d%b1%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e6%93%be%e4%ba%82%e4%be%9b%e6%87%89%e3%80%80%e8%8d%b7%e8%98%ad%e8%a3%bd%e9%80%a0%e6%a5%ad%e5%9b%a0%e4%bc%81%e6%a5%ad%e5%9b%a4%e8%b2%a8%e6%93%b4%e5%bc%b5%e3%80%80ne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46659\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u64fe\u4e82\u4f9b\u61c9\u3000\u8377\u862d\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u56e0\u4f01\u696d\u56e4\u8ca8\u64f4\u5f35\u3000Nevi PMI\u5347\u81f32022\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u8377\u862d\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u7522\u51fa\u6b63\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0cNevi \u8377\u862d\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff08PMI\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u554f\u5377\u65b9\u5f0f\u8861\u91cf\u65b0\u8a02\u55ae\u3001\u751f\u7522\u3001\u5c31\u696d\u3001\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u4ea4\u8ca8\u6642\u9593\u53ca\u5eab\u5b58\u7b49\u666f\u6c23\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5347\u81f3 2022 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u56e0\u61c9\u8207\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u53d7\u963b\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u5099\u8ca8\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7d93\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u91cd\u8981\u822a\u904b\u54bd\u5589\u3001\u77f3\u6cb9\u8207\u8ca8\u7269\u904b\u8f38\u8981\u9053\uff09\u822a\u904b\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8377\u862d\u88fd\u9020\u8ca8\u54c1\u9700\u6c42\u4ee5\u8fd1\u5169\u5e74\u6700\u5feb\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5916\u4f86\u9700\u6c42\u50c5\u6eab\u548c\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u589e\u9577\u4e3b\u8981\u8207\u672c\u5730\u4f01\u696d\u56e4\u8ca8\uff08\u5373\u70ba\u9632\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u800c\u63d0\u524d\u589e\u52a0\u5eab\u5b58\uff09\u6709\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n

Rising Output And Working Capital<\/h3>\n

\u672c\u5730\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u9ad8\u53ca\u5eab\u5b58\u589e\u52a0\u63a8\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u3002\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u4ee4\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u5c0d\u71df\u904b\u8cc7\u91d1\uff08working capital\uff0c\u5373\u65e5\u5e38\u71df\u904b\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u70ba\u6d41\u52d5\u8cc7\u7522\u6e1b\u6d41\u52d5\u8ca0\u50b5\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u73fe\u91d1\u3001\u61c9\u6536\u5e33\u3001\u5b58\u8ca8\u7b49\uff09\u9700\u6c42\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f01\u696d\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86 12 \u500b\u6708\u7522\u91cf\u7684\u9810\u671f\u50c5\u8f15\u5fae\u6539\u5584\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u5f62\u52e2\uff08\u5373\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u8207\u50f9\u683c\u72c0\u6cc1\uff09\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u5ef6\u7e8c\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u7dd2\u4ecd\u504f\u5be9\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5831\u9053\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8377\u862d\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u589e\u901f\u64da\u7a31\u5feb\u65bc\u5fb7\u570b\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u6839\u64da\u6a19\u666e\u5168\u7403\uff08S&P Global\uff09\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5fb7\u570b\u300c\u5feb\u5831\u300d\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff08flash PMI\uff0c\u5373\u521d\u6b65\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u63d0\u524d\u6578\u64da\uff09\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u7a31\u5728 AI \u5de5\u5177\u5354\u52a9\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4e26\u7531\u7de8\u8f2f\u5be9\u95b1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8377\u862d\u88fd\u9020\u696d PMI \u6700\u8fd1\u8df3\u5347\u81f3 54.8\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5c6c\u504f\u5229\u597d\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u4f01\u696d\u6b63\u5728\u56e4\u8ca8\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8996\u4e4b\u70ba\u77ed\u7dda\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u53ef\u7559\u610f AEX \u6307\u6578\uff08\u8377\u862d\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u5e02\u6307\u6578\uff09\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u3002AEX \u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5df2\u5347\u903e 3%\uff0c\u52d5\u529b\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u56e0\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u6182\u616e\u800c\u6025\u65bc\u5efa\u7acb\u5eab\u5b58\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n

AEX Versus DAX Divergence<\/h3>\n

\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8377\u862d\u8207\u5fb7\u570b\u8d70\u52e2\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u986f\u5206\u6b67\uff1a\u5fb7\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696d PMI \u4ecd\u8655\u6536\u7e2e\uff08contraction\uff0c\u5373\u4f4e\u65bc 50 \u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6d3b\u52d5\u840e\u7e2e\uff09\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u70ba 45.2\u3002AEX \u5e74\u521d\u81f3\u4eca\u8dd1\u8d0f\u5fb7\u570b DAX \u6307\u6578\uff08\u5fb7\u570b\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u5e02\u6307\u6578\uff09\u8fd1 8%\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u53ef\u671b\u5ef6\u7e8c\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u300c\u914d\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\uff08pairs trade\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u6cbd\u51fa\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u5f31\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u62bc\u6ce8\u8868\u73fe\u5dee\u8ddd\u64f4\u5927\u6216\u7dad\u6301\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff1a\u8cb7\u5165\u8377\u862d\u5de5\u696d\u80a1\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6cbd\u7a7a\uff08shorting\uff0c\u5373\u501f\u5165\u8ce3\u51fa\u3001\u671f\u671b\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5f8c\u518d\u8cb7\u56de\uff09\u5fb7\u570b\u540c\u985e\u80a1\u4efd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3b\u56e0\u4ecd\u662f\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u7684\u5e72\u64fe\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u6700\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u4f86\u6e90\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a18\u5f97 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u521d\u671f\u6d77\u8ecd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f8c\uff0c\u822a\u904b\u4fdd\u96aa\u8cbb\u7387\u4e00\u5ea6\u5347\u81f3\u4e09\u500d\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u6210\u672c\u4ecd\u5728\u5411\u4e0b\u6e38\u8f49\u5ac1\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u81e8\u6642\u505c\u706b\uff08provisional ceasefire\uff0c\u5373\u66ab\u6642\u6027\u505c\u706b\u5b89\u6392\uff09\u5c0d\u822a\u904b\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u5e6b\u52a9\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u6ce2\u52d5\u4ecd\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7559\u610f\u56e4\u8ca8\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u63d0\u632f\u5c6c\u77ed\u66ab\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u4f86\u81ea\u5916\u90e8\u9700\u6c42\u81ea\u7136\u56de\u5347\uff08organic foreign demand\uff0c\u5373\u975e\u9760\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u56e4\u8ca8\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3001\u800c\u662f\u7d42\u7aef\u9700\u6c42\u5be6\u8cea\u589e\u52a0\uff09\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u60c5\u7dd2\u4ecd\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u7a81\u7136\u7de9\u548c\uff0c\u65b0\u8a02\u55ae\u53ef\u80fd\u6025\u8dcc\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4ee5 AEX \u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedging\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u76f8\u53cd\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u4efb\u4f55\u504f\u597d\u770b\u5347\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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