{"id":46582,"date":"2026-05-04T14:29:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T14:29:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46582\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T14:29:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T14:29:10","slug":"%e5%8d%b0%e5%b0%bc4%e6%9c%88%e6%8c%89%e6%9c%88%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e6%94%be%e7%b7%a9%e8%87%b30-13%ef%bc%8c%e8%bc%83%e5%89%8d%e5%80%bc0-41%e5%9b%9e%e8%90%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46582\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5370\u5c3c4\u6708\u6309\u6708\u901a\u8139\u653e\u7de9\u81f30.13%\uff0c\u8f03\u524d\u503c0.41%\u56de\u843d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5370\u5c3c4\u6708\u6309\u6708\u901a\u8139\uff08month-on-month inflation\uff0c\u5373\u300c\u8207\u4e0a\u6708\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5e45\u300d\uff09\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u7531\u4e0a\u4e00\u671f\u76840.41%\u964d\u81f30.13%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\uff08consumer prices\uff0c\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u65e5\u5e38\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u6309\u6708\u5347\u5e45\u8f03\u4e0a\u6708\u66f4\u5c0f\u3002\u5831\u544a\u672a\u6709\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u7d30\u7bc0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>4\u6708\u901a\u8139\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u6539\u8b8a\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5370\u5c3c\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u901a\u8139\u75310.41%\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u843d\u81f30.13%\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u56e0\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\uff08consensus estimates\uff0c\u5373\u591a\u6578\u5206\u6790\u54e1\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\u539f\u672c\u63a5\u8fd10.30%\u3002\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u662f\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u592e\u884c\uff08Bank Indonesia\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31BI\uff09\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6d88\u5931\uff1b\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u6536\u7dca\u5468\u671f\u300d\uff08tightening cycle\uff0c\u5373\u900f\u904e\u52a0\u606f\u7b49\u63aa\u65bd\u6536\u7dca\u91d1\u878d\u74b0\u5883\uff09\u63a5\u8fd1\u544a\u4e00\u6bb5\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u5e74\u901a\u8139\uff08year-on-year inflation\uff0c\u5373\u300c\u8207\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5e45\u300d\uff09\u73fe\u964d\u81f32.9%\uff0c\u5df2\u56de\u5230BI 1.5%\u81f33.5%\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u3002\u9019\u4ee4\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u7531\u504f\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u8f03\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u8f49\u70ba\u300c\u4e2d\u6027\u300d\uff08neutral\uff0c\u5373\u66ab\u4e0d\u6025\u65bc\u52a0\u6216\u6e1b\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u504f\u5411\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u300c\u6e1b\u606f\u300d\uff08easing\uff0c\u5373\u4e0b\u8abf\u5229\u7387\u6216\u653e\u5bec\u91d1\u878d\u74b0\u5883\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u4f5c\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u900f\u904e\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff08interest rate swaps\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u628a\u300c\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u300d\u8207\u300c\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u300d\u4e92\u63db\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u9032\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u300c\u6536\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff08receive the fixed rate\uff0c\u5373\u6536\u53d6\u56fa\u5b9a\u3001\u652f\u4ed8\u6d6e\u52d5\uff1b\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9810\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u8f03\u6709\u5229\uff09\u7684\u5009\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u5916\u532f\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\uff08Rupiah\uff0c\u4ee3\u865fIDR\uff09\u8d70\u52e2\u66f4\u70ba\u8907\u96dc\u3002\u7a69\u5b9a\u901a\u8139\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u672a\u4f86BI\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08US Fed\uff09\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u57284.75%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5169\u5730\u606f\u5dee\u6216\u4ee4IDR\u53d7\u58d3\u3002\u8f03\u5be9\u614e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u8cb7\u5165\u77ed\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08short-dated USD\/IDR put options\uff1a\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\u5373\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u6cbd\u51fa\u7f8e\u5143\uff0f\u8cb7\u5165\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff1b\u77ed\u5e74\u671f\u5373\u5230\u671f\u6642\u9593\u8f03\u77ed\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u628a\u63e1\u5370\u5c3c\u76fe\u521d\u6bb5\u8f49\u5f37\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u4e2d\u9577\u7dda\u65b9\u5411\u4fdd\u6301\u4fdd\u5b88\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u8a18\u5f97BI\u57282025\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6642\u9593\u63a1\u53d6\u8f03\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u52a0\u606f\uff08aggressive rate hikes\uff0c\u5373\u5feb\u901f\u53ca\u5e45\u5ea6\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u52a0\u606f\uff09\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4e26\u66fe\u63a8\u9ad8\u50b5\u5238\u5b73\u606f\u7387\uff08bond yields\uff0c\u5373\u50b5\u5238\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u50b5\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u5247\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u3002\u4eca\u6b21\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u8a72\u8f2a\u5468\u671f\u6216\u5df2\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u50f9\u683c\u6709\u671b\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u5efa\u7acb\u5370\u5c3c10\u5e74\u671f\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff0810-year government bond futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u672a\u4f86\u4ea4\u6536\u768410\u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u4f5c\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u5316\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u7684\u300c\u9577\u5009\u300d\uff08long positions\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4ea6\u5229\u597d\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u56e0\u52a0\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff08borrowing costs\uff0c\u5373\u4f01\u696d\u53ca\u5c45\u6c11\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u5370\u5c3c\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u5229\uff08corporate earnings\uff0c\u5373\u516c\u53f8\u5229\u6f64\uff09\u6599\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u8f03\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff08monetary policy\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u900f\u904e\u5229\u7387\u53ca\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u7ba1\u7406\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u5370\u5c3c\u7d9c\u5408\u6307\u6578\uff08IDX Composite\uff0c\u5373\u5370\u5c3c\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u5e02\u57fa\u6e96\u6307\u6578\uff09\u6216\u6709\u4e0a\u884c\u52d5\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5370\u5c3c4\u6708\u6309\u6708\u901a\u8139\u964d\u81f30.13%\uff0c\u8f03\u524d\u503c0.41%\u986f\u8457\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u964d\u6eab\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u95dc\u6ce8\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5229\u7387\u53d6\u5411\u53ca\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u6216\u73fe\u8b8a\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46582\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}