{"id":46276,"date":"2026-04-29T22:24:53","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T22:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46276\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T22:24:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T22:24:53","slug":"%e5%9c%a8%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e6%96%bc2-25%e4%b8%8d%e8%ae%8a%e5%be%8c%ef%bc%8c%e9%ba%a5%e5%85%8b%e5%8b%92%e5%a7%86%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e8%bc%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46276\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u65bc2.25%\u4e0d\u8b8a\u5f8c\uff0c\u9ea5\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u8b66\u544a\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u8f03\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u66f4\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u65bc\u683c\u6797\u5a01\u6cbb\u6642\u959313:45\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57282.25%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u572814:30\u8209\u884c\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u3002\u884c\u9577\u9ea5\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\uff08Tiff Macklem\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5167\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u6709\u65e2\u5b9a\u6642\u9593\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9ea5\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u7a31\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u8a8d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u6709\u300c\u5269\u9918\u7522\u80fd\u300d\uff08slack\uff0c\u5373\u9700\u6c42\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u7528\u76e1\uff0c\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u8f03\u5c0f\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u9810\u671f\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u6703\u5f88\u5feb\u300c\u50b3\u5c0e\u300d\u81f3\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7269\u50f9\uff08pass-through\uff0c\u5373\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u662f\u5426\u8f49\u5ac1\u5230\u96f6\u552e\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u300c\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u300d\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u6c11\u53ca\u4f01\u696d\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u901a\u8139\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u52a0\u85aa\u8207\u5b9a\u50f9\uff09\u6216\u8f03\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u66f4\u96e3\u7a69\u5b9a\u5728\u76ee\u6a19\u9644\u8fd1\uff08not well anchored\uff0c\u5373\u9810\u671f\u4e0d\u518d\u7dca\u8cbc\u592e\u884c2%\u76ee\u6a19\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u592e\u884c\u300c\u516c\u4fe1\u529b\u300d\uff08credibility\uff0c\u5373\u80fd\u5426\u628a\u901a\u8139\u62c9\u56de\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff09\u672a\u6709\u53d7\u640d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Signals And Market Implications<\/h3>\n<p>\u526f\u884c\u9577\u7f85\u5091\u65af\uff08Carolyn Rogers\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8cbf\u6613\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u69cb\u6210\u7684\u4e2d\u9577\u7dda\u98a8\u96aa\u8f03\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u5979\u4ea6\u6307\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u55ae\u4e00\u901a\u8139\u6578\u5b57\u6703\u5b8c\u5168\u6539\u8b8a\u592e\u884c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u9810\u8a082026\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u95771.2%\uff081\u6708\u70ba1.1%\uff09\uff0c2027\u5e741.6%\uff0c2028\u5e741.7%\u3002\u901a\u8139\u9810\u8a082026\u5e74\u5e73\u57472.3%\uff08\u4e4b\u524d\u70ba2.0%\uff09\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c2027\u5e742.1%\uff0c2028\u5e742.0%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u4f30\u7b97\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u300c\u7522\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3\u300d\uff08output gap\uff0c\u5373\u5be6\u969b\u7522\u51fa\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u7522\u51fa\u4e4b\u5dee\uff0c\u8ca0\u6578\u4ee3\u8868\u7d93\u6fdf\u504f\u5f31\uff09\u70ba-1.5%\u81f3-0.5%\uff1b\u300c\u7d93\u5e74\u7387GDP\u589e\u9577\u300d\uff08annualised GDP growth\uff0c\u5373\u628a\u55ae\u5b63\u589e\u901f\u63db\u7b97\u6210\u5e74\u589e\u901f\uff09\u9810\u6e2c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b631.5%\u3001\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b631.5%\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u539f\u6cb9\u65bc2027\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u6bcf\u687675\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u300c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u5340\u9593\u300d\uff08neutral rate range\uff0c\u5373\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u4ea6\u4e0d\u62d6\u7d2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u70ba2.25%\u81f33.25%\uff1b\u85aa\u916c\u589e\u95773%\u81f33.5%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8b70\u606f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u52a0\u5143\uff08USD\/CAD\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u53ef\u514c\u63db\u591a\u5c11\u52a0\u5143\uff09\u5347\u7a7f1.3700\u3002\u8def\u900f\u5831\u9053\uff0c\u53d7\u8a2a\u5206\u6790\u54e1\u4e2d76%\u9810\u671f2026\u5e74\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Outlook And Key Watch Items<\/h3>\n<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u91cb\u51fa\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u66ab\u6642\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u4ee4\u52a0\u5143\u8d70\u52e2\u589e\u6dfb\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u9ea5\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u300c\u812b\u920e\u300d\uff08unanchored\uff0c\u5373\u504f\u96e2\u592e\u884c\u76ee\u6a19\u4e26\u81ea\u884c\u4e0a\u884c\uff09\u7684\u6182\u616e\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u592e\u884c\u5167\u90e8\u4ecd\u6709\u504f\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u53d6\u614b\uff08hawkish bias\uff0c\u5373\u8f03\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u3002\u300c\u89c0\u671b\u300d\uff08wait-and-see\uff09\u610f\u5473\u77ed\u671f\u6216\u4ee5\u5340\u9593\u4e0a\u843d\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u65e6\u6578\u64da\u6709\u8b8a\uff0c\u6ce2\u5e45\u53ef\u6025\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u5bc6\u5207\u7559\u610f\uff0c\u56e0\u9ea5\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u5df2\u660e\u78ba\u628a\u6f5b\u5728\u52a0\u606f\u8207\u6cb9\u50f9\u9577\u6642\u9593\u9ad8\u4f01\u639b\u920e\u3002\u53d7\u7f8e\u4f0a\u885d\u7a81\u6301\u7e8c\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\uff08WTI\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u570b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u89f8\u53ca\u6bcf\u687692\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ee4\u592e\u884c\u5047\u8a2d\u6cb9\u50f9\u56de\u843d\u81f375\u7f8e\u5143\u770b\u4f86\u66f4\u504f\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u82e5\u4f9b\u61c9\u518d\u53d7\u5e72\u64fe\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u8fc5\u901f\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u52a0\u606f\u6a5f\u6703\uff08repricing\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u5373\u6642\u8abf\u6574\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u5730\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\u504f\u5f31\uff08\u4eca\u5e74\u9810\u8a081.2%\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u7126\u9ede\u30022026\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u4f4f\u5c4b\u76f8\u95dc\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08shelter inflation\uff0c\u5373\u79df\u91d1\u3001\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u606f\u6210\u672c\u7b49\u4f4f\u5c4b\u958b\u652f\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4f016.1%\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u63a8\u9ad8\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u5373\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u7269\u50f9\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u516c\u5e03\u5c07\u5c6c\u95dc\u9375\uff1b\u82e5\u518d\u9ad8\u65bc\u592e\u884c\u5168\u5e742.3%\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u66f4\u5f37\u786c\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u614b\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6216\u5347\u6eab\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u63db\u53d6\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u90e8\u7f72\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u62bc\u6ce8\u6ce2\u5e45\u7a81\u7136\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u62bc\u6ce8\u532f\u50f9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6a6b\u884c\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u8cfc\u53ca\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff09\u6216\u5bec\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff0c\u5373\u8cb7\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u3001\u8f03\u5916\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff09\u53ef\u7528\u4f5c\u6355\u6349\u6cb9\u50f9\u6216\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u7a81\u7834\uff1b\u82e5\u9810\u671f\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u6a6b\u884c\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8ce3\u51fa\u9435\u5140\u9df9\uff08iron condor\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e00\u7d44\u8f03\u8fd1\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\/\u8a8d\u6cbd\u4e26\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9060\u50f9\u4f5c\u98a8\u96aa\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u532f\u50f9\u53d7\u9650\u6642\u8cfa\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6b67\u4ecd\u662f\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u52a0\u5143\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u57283.00%\uff0c\u8f03\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u76842.25%\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee4\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u606f\u5dee\u66f4\u6709\u5229\uff08carry\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff09\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u532f\u50f9\u7dad\u6301\u57281.3700\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u9664\u975e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u660e\u78ba\u8868\u793a\u6709\u610f\u6536\u7a84\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u52a0\u5143\u6bcf\u6b21\u56de\u843d\u6216\u4ecd\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5438\u7d0d\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7dad\u6301\u606f\u73872.25%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u884c\u9577\u9ea5\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u7a81\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u8f03\u75ab\u524d\u66f4\u5931\u9328\uff0c\u6216\u4ee4\u6e1b\u606f\u8def\u5f91\u6dfb\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9808\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u5229\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u7dad\u6301\u606f\u73872.25%\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u884c\u9577\u9ea5\u514b\u52d2\u59c6\u7a81\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u8f03\u75ab\u524d\u66f4\u5931\u9328\uff0c\u6216\u4ee4\u6e1b\u606f\u8def\u5f91\u6dfb\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9808\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u5229\u7387\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46276\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"VT Markets -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" 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