{"id":46267,"date":"2026-04-29T20:01:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T20:01:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46267\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T20:01:58","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T20:01:58","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%8f%83%e8%ad%b0%e9%99%a2%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e5%a7%94%e5%93%a1%e6%9c%83%e7%a2%ba%e8%aa%8d%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e6%8f%90%e5%90%8d%e7%9a%84%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e5%b1%80%e4%b8%bb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46267\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u9280\u884c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u78ba\u8a8d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9078\u51f1\u6587\uff0e\u6c83\u4ec0\uff0c\u63a8\u9032\u5176\u4efb\u547d\u7a0b\u5e8f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u51f1\u6587\u30fb\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u7372\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u51fa\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff08Federal Reserve Chair\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4efb\u547d\u5df2\u7372\u7f8e\u570b\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u9280\u884c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08Senate Banking Committee\uff09\u901a\u904e\u3002\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4ee5 13 \u7968\u5c0d 11 \u7968\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7968\u6578\u591a\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u9700\u4ea4\u7531\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u5168\u9662\u6295\u7968\u78ba\u8a8d\u3002\u82e5\u7372\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c07\u5728\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u4efb\u671f\u65bc 5 \u6708 15 \u65e5\u5c46\u6eff\u5f8c\u63a5\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6c83\u4ec0\u63d0\u540d\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5<\/h3>\n<p>\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1\u4f0a\u9e97\u838e\u767d\u30fb\u6c83\u502b\uff08Elizabeth Warren\uff09\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c\u7a31\u300c\u63a8\u9032\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u8868\u6c7a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5e6b\u52a9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63a5\u7ba1\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c83\u4ec0\u8ddd\u96e2\u638c\u8235\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u66f4\u8fd1\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u8981\u9762\u5c0d\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u5916\u754c\u666e\u904d\u8a8d\u70ba\u6c83\u4ec0\u8f03\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u66f4\u5feb\u52a0\u606f\u3001\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5feb\u4e0a\u8abf\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u3002\u300cVIX \u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08VIX\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6a19\u666e 500 \u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u5e45\uff09\u672c\u5468\u5df2\u5347\u81f3 18.5\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u5728\u5168\u9662\u78ba\u8a8d\u6295\u7968\u524d\u8003\u616e\u589e\u52a0\u300c\u5c0d\u6c96\u300d\uff08hedging\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u4ea4\u6613\u5b89\u6392\u62b5\u6d88\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u50b5\u5e02\u5df2\u5c0d\u6f5b\u5728\u4eba\u4e8b\u8b8a\u52d5\u4f5c\u51fa\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u6700\u65b0 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u8139\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6578\u64da\uff09\u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u300c\u9ecf\u6027\u300d\uff08sticky\uff0c\u5373\u56de\u843d\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\u3001\u8f03\u96e3\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u5728 3.1%\u3002\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u653f\u7b56\u7279\u5225\u654f\u611f\u7684\u300c\u5169\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u300d\uff082-year Treasury yield\uff0c\u77ed\u5e74\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u9810\u671f\u53cd\u61c9\u66f4\u5927\uff09\u81ea\u6d88\u606f\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u4e0a\u5347 15 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f3 4.85%\uff08\u57fa\u9ede basis point\uff0c1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede = 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u95dc\u6ce8\u300c\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff08options on interest rate futures\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u4f5c\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u66f4\u5f37\u786c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u8a18\u5f97 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u6025\u5287\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6536\u56de\u539f\u5148\u300c\u9d3f\u6d3e\u6307\u5f15\u300d\uff08dovish guidance\uff0c\u5373\u504f\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8a0a\u865f\uff09\u3002\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u518d\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u6b21\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81ea\u9818\u5c0e\u5c64\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u5411\u53ef\u80fd\u8f49\u8b8a\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u806f\u5132\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 2018 \u5e74\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5feb\u901f\u300c\u6536\u7dca\u300d\uff08tightening\uff0c\u5373\u52a0\u606f\u53ca\u6536\u7e2e\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff09\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u6025\u632b\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>5 \u6708\u671f\u9650\u524d\u7684\u90e8\u7f72<\/h3>\n<p>\u96a8\u7740 5 \u6708 15 \u65e5\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u4efb\u671f\u5c46\u6eff\u903c\u8fd1\uff0c5 \u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u53ca 6 \u6708\u5230\u671f\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6578\u671f\u6b0a\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u5e45\uff09\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u898b\u5230\u300c\u504f\u659c\u300d\uff08skew\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\u8207\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u5dee\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u66f4\u64d4\u5fc3\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6a19\u666e 500\uff08S&#038;P 500\uff09\u300c\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff08put\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\/\u7528\u4f5c\u4fdd\u8b77\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u9700\u6c42\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc\u300c\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff08call\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u61c9\u6aa2\u8996\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u56e0\u7531\u6c83\u4ec0\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6216\u66f4\u91cd\u8996\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u652f\u6490\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u53c3\u9662\u9280\u884c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u78ba\u8a8d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u63d0\u540d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4eba\u9078\u6c83\u4ec0\uff0c\u4efb\u547d\u7a0b\u5e8f\u518d\u63a8\u9032\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u7dca\u76ef\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u614b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u7f8e\u50b5\u3001\u80a1\u5e02\u6216\u8fce\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46267"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46267\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}