{"id":46165,"date":"2026-04-28T22:26:26","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T22:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46165\/"},"modified":"2026-04-28T22:26:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T22:26:26","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%ad%89%e5%88%b8%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e5%b1%80%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e4%bb%8d%e4%bb%a5%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e7%82%ba%e4%b8%bb%e5%b0%8e%ef%bc%8c%e6%9c%9d%e4%b8%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46165\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u4ee5\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u4e3b\u5c0e\uff0c\u671d\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u9081\u9032\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u6297\u901a\u8139\u5de5\u5177\u6599\u96e3\u6539\u8b8a\u524d\u666f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD Securities \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u5c07\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d Kevin Warsh \u652f\u6301\u5f15\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u901a\u8139\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u300c\u4fee\u526a\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u300d\uff08trimmed mean\uff09\u8861\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5373\u628a\u50f9\u683c\u5347\u8dcc\u6700\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u5254\u9664\u5f8c\uff0c\u518d\u8a08\u7b97\u5e73\u5747\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u66f4\u8cbc\u8fd1\u300c\u6838\u5fc3\u300d\u901a\u8139\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u52d5\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u5927\u6578\u64da\u50f9\u683c\u9805\u76ee\u300d\uff08big-data price project\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u7db2\u4e0a\u53ca\u4ea4\u6613\u6578\u64da\u3001\u66f4\u5bc6\u96c6\u5730\u8ffd\u8e64\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u65b0\u589e\u5de5\u5177\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u77ed\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8a72\u884c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5b98\u54e1\u672c\u8eab\u5df2\u8ffd\u8e64\u591a\u7a2e\u901a\u8139\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u4e26\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u82e5\u8981\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u6709\u6e05\u6670\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a\u300c\u57fa\u790e\u901a\u8139\u300d\uff08underlying inflation\uff0c\u5373\u6487\u9664\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\u6b63\u56de\u5fa9\u6b63\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Easing Bar Remains High<\/h3>\n<p>TD Securities \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u653e\u5bec\u653f\u7b56\uff08policy easing\uff0c\u5373\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff09\u7684\u9580\u6abb\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u63d0\u5230\u90e8\u5206\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u5c6c\u77ed\u66ab\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8a72\u884c\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53d6\u614b\u662f\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002\u5b83\u9810\u671f\u5230 9 \u6708\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff0c\u5373\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8ca0\u8cac\u5236\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u6703\u8b70\uff09\u6642\uff0c\u8b49\u64da\u5c07\u8db3\u4ee5\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u9010\u6b65\u8d70\u5411\u300c\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u300d\uff08neutral setting\uff0c\u5373\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u3001\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u6703\u52a0\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u901a\u8139\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u8def\u5f91\u4ecd\u662f\u7b49\u5f85\u3002\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5169\u500b\u6708\u6e1b\u606f\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5728\u6709\u660e\u78ba\u8b49\u64da\u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u6b63\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\uff08normalizing\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u8f03\u63a5\u8fd1\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u89c0\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u7a2e\u5be9\u614e\u7acb\u5834\u4ea6\u6709\u6578\u64da\u652f\u6301\uff1a2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u6700\u65b0\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u5373\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u9054 3.1%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u670d\u52d9\u8207\u4f4f\u623f\uff08shelter\uff0c\u5373\u79df\u91d1\u53ca\u81ea\u4f4f\u4f4f\u5c4b\u6210\u672c\u7b49\uff09\u6210\u672c\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\u6240\u63a8\u52d5\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u96e3\u4ee5\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u5408\u7406\u5316\u653e\u5bec\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u5c0d 9 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u5b9a\u50f9\u4e0d\u8db3 20%\uff08\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u4ea4\u6613\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9810\u671f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Market Implications For Traders<\/h3>\n<p>\u56de\u9867 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u539f\u5148\u9810\u671f 2026 \u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u6642\u9593\u8868\u5df2\u5ef6\u5f8c\u30022026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u65b0\u589e 24 \u842c\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6301\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4fdd\u6301\u8010\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u61c9\u653e\u5728\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u9810\u671f\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u5e45\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u4f4e\uff0cVIX \u6307\u6578\uff08\u5373\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u6a19\u666e 500 \u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u6216\u5f98\u5f8a\u65bc 14 \u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u4f8b\u5982\u300c\u8ce3\u51fa\u77ed\u5e74\u671f\u671f\u6b0a\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u300d\uff08selling short-dated options to collect premium\uff0c\u5373\u8ce3\u51fa\u5feb\u5230\u671f\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\u4f5c\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u590f\u672b\u524d\u7a81\u7136\u8f49\u5411\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u8d85\u9810\u671f\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6216\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u6253\u7834\u5e73\u975c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5229\u7387\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u65b9\u9762\uff08interest rate derivatives\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u503c\u53d7\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u5316\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u671f\u6b0a\u3001\u6389\u671f\u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u8f03\u9060\u671f\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u53cd\u6620 9 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u9644\u8fd1\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u800c\u975e 6 \u6708\u6216 7 \u6708\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u62ec\u4f7f\u7528 SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff08SOFR futures options\uff1bSOFR \u5373\u300c\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u70ba\u7f8e\u5143\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1b\u5176\u671f\u8ca8\u53ca\u671f\u6b0a\u70ba\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u6f5b\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\uff08policy pivot\uff0c\u5373\u7531\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u8f49\u70ba\u6e1b\u606f\uff09\u62bc\u6ce8\u5728\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u300c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\u5728\u8f03\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u505c\u7559\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\uff09\u7684\u53d6\u614b\uff0c\u5c0d\u589e\u9577\u578b\u80a1\u4efd\uff08growth\uff0c\u5373\u4f30\u503c\u4f9d\u8cf4\u672a\u4f86\u589e\u9577\u7684\u80a1\u4efd\uff09\u69cb\u6210\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u8f03\u5be9\u614e\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u7528\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u4f5c\u9632\u5b88\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165\u5927\u5e02\u6307\u6578\u7684\u4fdd\u8b77\u6027\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08protective puts\uff0c\u5373\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\u70ba\u73fe\u6709\u6301\u80a1\u5c0d\u6c96\u4e0b\u8dcc\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u5e02\u5834\u56e0\u806f\u5132\u5ef6\u5f8c\u884c\u52d5\u800c\u51fa\u73fe\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u6307\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7e8c\u5949\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u572d\u81ec\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u6eab\u548c\u6536\u7dca\u9081\u5411\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6c83\u4ec0\u796d\u51fa\u6297\u901a\u8139\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ea6\u96e3\u626d\u8f49\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5b9c\u63d0\u9632\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- 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content=\"\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u4ee5\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u4e3b\u5c0e\uff0c\u671d\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u9081\u9032\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u6297\u901a\u8139\u5de5\u5177\u6599\u96e3\u6539\u8b8a\u524d\u666f - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u6307\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7e8c\u5949\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u572d\u81ec\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u6eab\u548c\u6536\u7dca\u9081\u5411\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6c83\u4ec0\u796d\u51fa\u6297\u901a\u8139\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ea6\u96e3\u626d\u8f49\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5b9c\u63d0\u9632\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/46165\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-28T22:26:26+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-28T22:26:26+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta 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