\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884c\uff08Commerzbank\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u589e\u9577\u524d\u666f\u6b63\u88ab\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u53d7\u5c0d\u5916\u8cbf\u6613\u58d3\u529b\u53ca\u6539\u9769\u4e0d\u8db3\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u9053\uff09\u95dc\u9589\u6642\u9593\u5ef6\u9577\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff08recession\uff0c\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff09\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u5c07\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
Ifo \u5546\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u6307\u6578\uff08Ifo Business Climate Index\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u5fb7\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u8207\u7d93\u71df\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u7531 86.3 \u8dcc\u81f3 84.4\uff0c\u8a72\u884c\u8a8d\u70ba\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u71df\u72c0\u6cc1\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u4f30\u8a08 2026 \u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7d04 0.6%\uff1b\u82e5\u4f5c\u300c\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u8abf\u6574\u300d\uff08working-day-adjusted\uff0c\u5373\u6263\u9664\u67d0\u4e00\u5e74\u5de5\u4f5c\u5929\u6578\u7279\u5225\u591a\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8868\u9762\u589e\u9577\uff09\uff0c\u5247\u7d04\u70ba 0.3%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8a72\u884c\u7a31\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5728 5 \u6708\u5e95\u91cd\u958b\u3001\u5408\u5171\u95dc\u9589\u4e09\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u4ecd\u6703\u4f4e 0.4 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u6d77\u5cfd\u6bcf\u591a\u4e00\u5929\u672a\u80fd\u904b\u6cb9\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa\u5c31\u6703\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8a72\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u898f\u6a21\u76f8\u7576\u65bc GDP 0.8% \u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\uff08fiscal stimulus\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u52a0\u5927\u958b\u652f\u6216\u6e1b\u7a05\u4ee5\u6490\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\u5927\u81f4\u88ab\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u3001\u95dc\u7a05\u4e0a\u8abf\uff08tariff rises\uff0c\u5373\u9032\u53e3\u7a05\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ee4\u8cbf\u6613\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u53ca\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5168\u9762\u6539\u9769\u6240\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u7a31\uff0c\u56db\u5468\u524d\u5df2\u628a 2026 \u5e74\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3 0.6%\uff0c\u4e26\u91cd\u7533\u300c\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u8abf\u6574\u300d\u5f8c\u70ba 0.3%\u3002<\/p>\n
Ifo \u5546\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u6307\u6578\u6025\u8dcc\u81f3 84.4\uff0c\u6e05\u695a\u53cd\u6620\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u6b63\u56b4\u91cd\u6253\u64ca\u5fb7\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u5728\u5047\u8a2d\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u65bc 5 \u6708\u5e95\u91cd\u958b\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\u964d\u81f3\u50c5 0.6%\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u8cc7\u7522\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u53d7\u58d3\uff1b\u4efb\u4f55\u91cd\u958b\u5ef6\u8aa4\u90fd\u6703\u4ee4\u5f62\u52e2\u8f49\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u589e\u9577\u8fd1\u4e4e\u505c\u6eef\uff08stagnation\uff0c\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7121\u589e\u9577\uff09\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u770b\u6de1\uff08bearish\uff0c\u5373\u9810\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u5fb7\u570b\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u5fb7\u570b DAX \u6307\u6578\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\uff09\u662f\u8f03\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u53ef\u628a\u63e1\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u5229\u9810\u671f\u4e0b\u8abf\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u8dcc\u52e2\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u4ea6\u652f\u6301\u6b64\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u5fb7\u570b\u4e0a\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7522\u6309\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc 1.5%\uff0c\u662f\u81ea 2025 \u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u554f\u984c\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n
\u653e\u7de9\u4ea6\u5c0d\u6b50\u5143\u69cb\u6210\u660e\u986f\u963b\u529b\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u76f4\u96e3\u4ee5\u4f01\u7a69 1.05 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1b\u96a8\u7740\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7e3d\u7d71\u4e0a\u8abf\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6469\u64e6\uff08economic friction\uff0c\u5373\u8cbf\u6613\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u963b\u7919\u4ee4\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u6d3b\u52d5\u53d7\u9650\uff09\u52a0\u6df1\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0b\u884c\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u6cbd\u7a7a EUR\/USD \u671f\u8ca8\uff08futures\uff0c\u5373\u7d04\u5b9a\u65e5\u5f8c\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u6b50\u5143\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff0c\u5373\u6e1b\u4f4e\u4e0d\u5229\u8d70\u52e2\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u640d\u5931\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5c40\u52e2\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee4\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0cVSTOXX \u6307\u6578\uff08\u6b50\u6d32\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u63a5\u8fd1\u4eca\u5e74\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165 VSTOXX \u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5c01\u9396\u6bcf\u591a\u6301\u7e8c\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa\u5c31\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u50b5\u5e02\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u8feb\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u5ef6\u5f8c\u5c0d\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5229\u597d\u5fb7\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u300210 \u5e74\u671f\u5fb7\u570b\u570b\u50b5\uff08Bund\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u767c\u884c\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u5b73\u606f\u7387\uff08yield\uff0c\u5373\u50b5\u5238\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff09\u672c\u6708\u5728\u907f\u96aa\uff08flight to safety\uff0c\u5373\u8cc7\u91d1\u8f49\u5411\u8f03\u5b89\u5168\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u5e36\u52d5\u4e0b\u4e0b\u8dcc 20 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff0c1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u3002\u56de\u9867 2011 \u5e74\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\uff08sovereign debt crisis\uff0c\u5373\u591a\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u5f15\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u76ea\uff09\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u4ea6\u66fe\u5448\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u8d70\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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