{"id":45908,"date":"2026-04-24T19:56:01","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T19:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/45908\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T19:56:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T19:56:01","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%ad%89%e5%88%b8%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%b8%ab%e6%96%99%e8%8b%b1%e5%80%ab%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%80%e8%87%b4%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e6%96%bc3-75","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/45908\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e2b\u6599\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u4e00\u81f4\u7dad\u6301\u9280\u884c\u5229\u7387\u65bc3.75%\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u6578\u64da\u7e8c\u986f\u97cc\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD Securities \u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e2b\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff09\u5c07\u628a\u300c\u9280\u884c\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff08Bank Rate\uff0c\u5373\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.75%\uff0c\u4e26\u4e00\u81f4\u6295\u7968\u901a\u904e\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u4f30\u8a08\u592e\u884c\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a1\u53d6\u300c\u89c0\u671b\u300d\uff08wait-and-see\uff0c\u5373\u5148\u4e0d\u6539\u8b8a\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u66f4\u591a\u6578\u64da\u518d\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff09\u53d6\u614b\uff0c\u4ee5\u8a55\u4f30\u885d\u7a81\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u4ee5\u5916\u63a8\u9ad8\u672c\u5730\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6599\u653f\u7b56\u8072\u660e\u53ea\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u6709\u9650\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u63d0\u5230\u300c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff08CPI\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7269\u50f9\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u901a\u8139\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6703\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u51fa\u300c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f2a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u5373\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u5e36\u52d5\u5de5\u8cc7\u8207\u6210\u672c\u518d\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u81ea\u6211\u5f37\u5316\uff09\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Outlook And Projections<\/h3>\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e2b\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u986f\u793a\u7b2c 1 \u5e74\u53ca\u7b2c 2 \u5e74\u901a\u8139\u8f03\u9ad8\uff1b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff08GDP\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u6a21\uff09\u521d\u6bb5\u7565\u5f37\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u8f49\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u4f30\u8a08\u7b2c 2 \u5e74\u901a\u8139\u6703\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc 2%\uff0c\u8f03\u4e4b\u524d\u9810\u6e2c\u7684 1.8% \u70ba\u9ad8\uff1b\u4ea6\u8a8d\u70ba\u7b2c 3 \u5e74\u901a\u8139\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc 2 \u6708\u9810\u6e2c\u7684 2.0%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u300c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u300d\uff08MPC\uff0c\u5373\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff09\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u66f4\u5f37\u8abf\u300c\u60c5\u5883\u5206\u6790\u300d\uff08scenario analysis\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u5047\u8a2d\u63a8\u6f14\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u60c5\u5883\u662f\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u66f4\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u8139\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001GDP \u589e\u9577\u66f4\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Implications For Rates Markets<\/h3>\n<p>\u53bb\u5e74\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u9577\u6642\u9593\u9ad8\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u5927\u81f4\u6210\u771f\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5176\u5f8c\u653f\u7b56\u5927\u5e45\u6536\u7dca\u3002\u82f1\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08Office for National Statistics\uff09\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u82f1\u570b CPI \u4ecd\u70ba 2.4%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc 2% \u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u660e\u986f\u5f31\u65bc\u65e9\u524d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u5b63\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u64f4\u5f35\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u5f62\u52e2\u4e0b\uff0c\u300c\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u300d\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u8cc7\u7522\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u6389\u671f\u3001\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u61c9\u805a\u7126\u300c\u8ca8\u5e63\u5bec\u9b06\u300d\uff08monetary easing\uff0c\u5373\u6e1b\u606f\u7b49\u653e\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8207\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u5728\u62bc\u6ce8\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u6216\u518d\u52a0\u606f\uff1b\u76ee\u524d\u300cSONIA \u671f\u8ca8\u300d\uff08SONIA futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u82f1\u938a\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6578\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u7387 SONIA \u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u53cd\u6620\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u516d\u500b\u6708\u5167\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u8981\u90e8\u7f72\u5728\u9019\u500b\u8f49\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u300c\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\u300d\uff08swaps\uff0c\u4ea4\u63db\u56fa\u5b9a\u8207\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u53ca\u300c\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff08options\uff0c\u8ce6\u4e88\u5728\u6307\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u570d\u7e5e\u4eca\u5e74\u8f03\u5f8c\u6642\u9593\u7684 MPC \u6703\u8b70\u65e5\u671f\u4f86\u8a2d\u8a08\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u60c5\u5883\u5206\u6790\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4ecd\u9ad8\uff0c\u70ba\u4ea4\u6613\u300c\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d\uff08volatility\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u5728\u901a\u8139\u504f\u9ad8\u3001GDP 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volatility\uff0c\u5373\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8f03\u9069\u5408\u63a1\u7528\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u4e0a\u4e0b\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u55ae\u62bc\u67d0\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e2b\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u5c07\u4e00\u81f4\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u73873.75%\u3002\u82f1\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u7e8c\u986f\u97cc\u6027\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u95dc\u6ce8\u5f8c\u7e8c\u53e3\u98a8\u6703\u5426\u8f49\u9df9\uff0c\u82f1\u938a\u53ca\u50b5\u606f\u6216\u73fe\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45908"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45908\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}