\u5916\u532f\u5e02\u5834\u57284\u670828\u65e5\u300a\u6230\u722d\u6b0a\u529b\u6c7a\u8b70\u300b\uff08War Powers Resolution\uff09\u671f\u9650\u524d\uff0c\u5df2\u9032\u5165\u6574\u56fa\uff08consolidation\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u5340\u9593\u5167\u4e0a\u843d\u3001\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u660e\uff09\u968e\u6bb5\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\uff08USD\/CNY\uff09\u5728\u8f03\u65e9\u524d\u300c\u9b06\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u5f0f\u53cd\u5f48\u300d\uff08relief rally\uff0c\u5373\u58de\u6d88\u606f\u66ab\u6642\u672a\u64f4\u5927\u800c\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u77ed\u66ab\u56de\u5347\uff09\u5f8c\u8da8\u65bc\u5e73\u7a69\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ea4\u6613\u8f49\u8da8\u5be9\u614e\uff1b\u672c\u6708\u8f03\u65e9\u524d\u53cd\u5f48\u904e\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u660e\u78ba\u62bc\u6ce8\u55ae\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff08firm directional positions\uff0c\u5373\u91cd\u5009\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u3001\u660e\u986f\u770b\u5347\u6216\u770b\u8dcc\uff09\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u671f\u7684\u671f\u9650\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u885d\u64ca\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u6b63\u5f71\u97ff\u592e\u884c\u524d\u666f\uff1b\u591a\u5bb6\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u65bc\u4e0b\u5468\u8b70\u606f\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rates\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5b98\u54e1\u76e3\u5bdf\u6eef\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\uff08stagflation\uff0c\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\u4f46\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u9ad8\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u4e9e\u6d32\uff0c\u5c0d\u6cb9\u50f9\u654f\u611f\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff08oil-sensitive currencies\uff0c\u5373\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u6703\u52a0\u91cd\u9032\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u3001\u62d6\u7d2f\u532f\u50f9\uff09\u5982\u5370\u5ea6\u76e7\u6bd4\uff08INR\uff09\u3001\u97d3\u571c\uff08KRW\uff09\u53ca\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u62ab\u7d22\uff08PHP\uff09\uff0c\u6599\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8ddf\u96a8\u6cb9\u50f9\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u7576\u5730\u7576\u5c40\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u96a8\u6642\u51fa\u624b\u7684\u59ff\u614b\uff0c\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u532f\u50f9\u55ae\u908a\u8d70\u5f31\uff08one-way moves towards depreciation\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u53ea\u62bc\u6ce8\u8cb6\u503c\u3001\u5f62\u6210\u5931\u8861\u8d70\u52e2\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u96a8\u77404\u670828\u65e5\u671f\u9650\u903c\u8fd1\uff0c\u5916\u532f\u5e02\u5834\u9032\u5165\u504f\u7dca\u5f35\u7684\u6574\u56fa\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u8f49\u5e73\u3002\u6b64\u7336\u8c6b\u53cd\u6620\u672c\u6708\u8f03\u65e9\u524d\u77ed\u66ab\u53cd\u5f48\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u4e0d\u9858\u5728\u5f62\u52e2\u672a\u660e\u4e0b\u4f5c\u51fa\u660e\u986f\u65b9\u5411\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u9677\u5165\u89c0\u671b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8f03\u53ef\u53d6\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08volatility\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u800c\u975e\u62bc\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u5df2\u5be6\u73fe\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08realized volatility\uff0c\u5373\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5be6\u969b\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u5168\u7403\u5916\u532f\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08J.P. Morgan Global FX Volatility Index\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\uff09\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4f01\u65bc\u7d048.5%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u70ba\u6f5b\u5728\u885d\u64ca\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\u3002\u904b\u7528\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u63db\u53d6\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\/\u8ce3\u51fa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u5982\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u770b\u6f32\u8207\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u5bec\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff0c\u5373\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\u52a0\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u671f\u9650\u904e\u5f8c\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u6642\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u5347\u8dcc\u90fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u53d7\u60e0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u4f0a\u5c0d\u5cd9\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u5468\u4fdd\u6301\u89c0\u671b\u3002\u5f9e\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\uff08futures market\uff0c\u5373\u8cb7\u8ce3\u672a\u4f86\u4ea4\u6536\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u4f30\u8a08\u4e3b\u8981\u592e\u884c\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u903e90%\u3002\u9019\u52a0\u6df1\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u51f8\u986f\u6eef\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u9700\u7559\u610f\u4f9d\u8cf4\u9032\u53e3\u539f\u6cb9\u7684\u4e9e\u6d32\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5370\u5ea6\u76e7\u6bd4\u53ca\u97d3\u571c\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u6e96\u6cb9\u50f9\uff09\u9577\u671f\u4f01\u65bc\u6bcf\u687695\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee4\u76f8\u95dc\u8ca8\u5e63\u66f4\u6613\u53d7\u7a81\u767c\u6d88\u606f\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u50f9\u5916\uff08out-of-the-money\uff0c\u5373\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u5c0d\u8cb7\u65b9\u4e0d\u5229\u3001\u4f46\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u8f03\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff09\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u532f\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u5982USD\/INR\uff0c\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u6210\u672c\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u7b46\u4ea4\u6613\u62b5\u6d88\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u5347\u5f15\u767c\u532f\u5e02\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56de\u98672025\u5e74\u56e0\u8cbf\u6613\u722d\u7aef\u5347\u7d1a\u800c\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u932f\u914d\uff08market dislocations\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u8fc5\u901f\u504f\u96e2\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8b8a\u5dee\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45\u6642\u671f\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u7a81\u7136\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u9019\u652f\u6301\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\u512a\u5148\u63a1\u7528\u53ef\u63a7\u98a8\u96aa\u7b56\u7565\uff08defined-risk strategies\uff0c\u5373\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u4e8b\u5148\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982\u8cb7\u5165\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u3002\u8207\u5176\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5728\u6beb\u7121\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e0b\u88ab\u8feb\u627f\u53d7\u6025\u901f\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u5148\u4ed8\u51fa\u8f03\u5c0f\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u4f5c\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DBS Research\u7684Philip Wee\u7a31\uff0c\u300a\u6230\u722d\u6b0a\u529b\u6cd5\u300b\u671f\u9650\u5c07\u81f3\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u89c0\u671b\u5347\u6eab\uff1b\u4e9e\u6d32\u8ca8\u5e63\u5be9\u614e\u6574\u56fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u5927\u81f4\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u805a\u7126\u5f8c\u7e8c\u653f\u7b56\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45824"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45824\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}