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\u6211\u5011\u57282025\u5e744\u670810\u65e5\u7684\u7e8c\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\u6578\u64da\u5df2\u770b\u5230\u65e9\u671f\u8b66\u865f\uff1a\u5be6\u969b\u6578\u5b57\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u3002182.1\u842c\u53cd\u6620\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\uff08\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u958b\u59cb\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u4e26\u5f62\u6210\u7de9\u6162\u4f46\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5176\u5f8c\u5168\u5e74\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u524d\u9019\u500b\u8da8\u52e2\u66f4\u70ba\u660e\u986f\uff1a\u6700\u65b0\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u7e8c\u9818\u4eba\u6578\u5df2\u5347\u81f3195\u842c\u3002\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u555f\u52d5\u6e1b\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff08rate-cutting cycle\uff0c\u5373\u9010\u6b65\u4e0b\u8abf\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\uff09\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u5df2\u6e1b\u606f\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08federal funds rate\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u9694\u591c\u62c6\u501f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u964d\u81f34.50%\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u5728\u6d88\u5316\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u65b0\u73fe\u5be6\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63GDP\uff08\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e3d\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u50c5\u589e\u95771.8%\uff0c\u8868\u73fe\u75b2\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u90e8\u7f72\u4ea6\u61c9\u8ddf\u96a8\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff08monetary policy\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u900f\u904e\u5229\u7387\u8207\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Fed funds futures\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u53cd\u66209\u6708FOMC\uff08\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u6c7a\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6703\u8b70\uff09\u518d\u5ea6\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u8d85\u904e60%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8207\u5229\u7387\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u50f9\u503c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u7522\/\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options on Treasury bond futures\uff0c\u5373\u4ee5\u570b\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u4ea4\u6613\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u504f\u9d3f\u7acb\u5834\uff08dovish stance\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u6e1b\u606f\u3001\u8f03\u91cd\u8996\u652f\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u5411\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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