\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u958b\u5e02\u6642\u4ecd\u7136\u4f01\u7a69\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u540c\u6642\u51fa\u73fe\u5169\u9805\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a\u6d89\u53caKevin Warsh\u7684\u807d\u8b49\u6703\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u76f8\u95dc\u3001\u70ba\u671f\u5169\u5468\u7684\u505c\u706b\u5230\u671f\u3002\u505c\u706b\u5931\u6548\u5f8c\uff0c\u6575\u5c0d\u8a00\u8ad6\u518d\u8d77\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c01\u9396\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u4f0a\u6717\u672a\u6709\u5c55\u958b\u8ac7\u5224\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5176\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u4ee3\u8868\u5468\u4e94\u8f03\u70ba\u300c\u6709\u5229\u5e02\u5834\u300d\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff08\u5373\u4ee4\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u8f03\u5b89\u5fc3\u3001\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u597d\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u88ab\u66f4\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u9650\u5236\u7acb\u5834\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002\u5831\u9053\u4ea6\u63d0\u5230\u5404\u65b9\u6b63\u70ba\u885d\u7a81\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u71c3\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\u3002<\/p>\n
Warsh\u807d\u8b49\u6703\u4e26\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4e8b\u524d\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5316\uff08\u5373\u672a\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff09\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u6642\u6bb5\u5167\u8f49\u70ba\u300c\u907f\u96aa\u300d\uff08risk-off\uff1a\u6e1b\u5c11\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u3001\u8f49\u8cb7\u8f03\u5b89\u5168\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f2a\u8ac7\u5224\u4ea6\u672a\u6709\u9032\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5176\u5f8c\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u5ef6\u9577\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u6578\u5206\u9418\u5167\u8f49\u56de\u300c\u5192\u96aa\u300d\uff08risk-on\uff1a\u589e\u52a0\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u5230\u6536\u5e02\u4ecd\u4fdd\u7559\u65e9\u524d\u907f\u96aa\u5347\u5e45\u7d04\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u8a18\u61b6\u7336\u65b0\uff1a\u53bb\u5e74\uff082025\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u66fe\u56e0\u4f0a\u6717\u6d88\u606f\u53ca\u505c\u706b\u5ef6\u9577\u7684\u6a19\u984c\u65b0\u805e\u800c\u5287\u70c8\u300c\u904e\u5c71\u8eca\u300d\u3002\u6a19\u666e500\u53ef\u56e0\u7e3d\u7d71\u4e00\u53e5\u8aaa\u8a71\u5728\u6578\u5206\u9418\u5167\u53cd\u8f49\u3002\u9019\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u300c\u975e\u6230\u975e\u548c\u300d\u5c40\u9762\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a19\u984c\u65b0\u805e\u98a8\u96aa\uff08headline risk\uff1a\u7a81\u767c\u6d88\u606f\u5f15\u767c\u5373\u5e02\u6025\u5347\u6025\u8dcc\uff09\u662f\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5373\u5e02\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n
\u540c\u985e\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u6b63\u5728\u91cd\u73fe\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u5831\u9053\u986f\u793a\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u9644\u8fd1\u6d77\u8ecd\u529b\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6cb9\u8f2a\u822a\u904b\u64da\u5831\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u5468\u5df2\u653e\u6162\u903e10%\u3002\u9019\u4ee4\u4eba\u60f3\u8d772025\u5e74\u66fe\u898b\u7684\u5c01\u9396\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u4ea6\u6b63\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u5834\uff1aWTI\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u5373\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u7d1a\u539f\u6cb9\u4f5c\u57fa\u6e96\u3001\u7528\u5408\u7d04\u5f62\u5f0f\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u4ea4\u6536\u6cb9\u50f9\uff09\u73fe\u6642\u4f01\u65bc\u6bcf\u687692\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002CBOE\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08VIX\uff0c\u4fd7\u7a31\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u91cf\u5ea6\u6a19\u666e500\u671f\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u3001\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u4ea6\u7531\u5341\u591a\u6c34\u5e73\u5347\u81f321\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u70ba\u4eca\u5e74\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u4fdd\u8b77\u300d\uff08\u5373\u7528\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u7a81\u767c\u885d\u64ca\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9451\u65bc2025\u5e74\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u77ac\u9593\u53cd\u8f49\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u7528\u671f\u8ca8\u4f5c\u55ae\u5411\u62bc\u6ce8\uff08\u5373\u53ea\u8ced\u5347\u6216\u53ea\u8ced\u8dcc\uff09\u98a8\u96aa\u6975\u9ad8\u3002\u8f03\u53ef\u53d6\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u900f\u904e\u671f\u6b0a\u8cb7\u5165\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u300c\u6703\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u5224\u65b7\u5347\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728SPY\u6216QQQ\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u5e73\u50f9\u8de8\u5f0f\u300d\uff08at-the-money straddle\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\u8207\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff1b\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u843d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u908a\u5747\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u7372\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u7a81\u7136\u7684risk-on\u6216risk-off\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c0d\u5df2\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u9577\u5009\uff08\u5373\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u53d7\u60e0\u4e0a\u5347\u4f46\u6015\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\u5c24\u5176\u9700\u8981\u5c0d\u6c96\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u300c\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff08out-of-the-money put\uff1a\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u4f4e\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u5927\u8dcc\u4fdd\u96aa\uff09\u662f\u8f03\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u300c\u4fdd\u96aa\u300d\u3002\u4ea6\u53ef\u7528\u300c\u8a8d\u6cbd\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08put debit spread\uff1a\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u8a8d\u6cbd\u3001\u540c\u6642\u6cbd\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff1b\u53ef\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u9650\u5236\u5c0d\u6c96\u6536\u76ca\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u5148\u9396\u5b9a\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6ce2\u52d5\u4ea6\u8207\u901a\u8139\u56e0\u7d20\u4ea4\u7e54\u3002\u4e0a\u6708CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u8139\uff09\u7565\u9ad8\uff0c\u58313.2%\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u5f8c\u7684\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\u66f4\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\uff08\u5373\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u6162\u3001\u8f03\u96e3\u964d\u81f3\u76ee\u6a19\uff09\u4ee4\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\u518d\u52a0\u4e00\u5c64\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u6b50\u5143\u5df2\u5347\u81f3\u516d\u5468\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u975c\u9ed8\u907f\u96aa\u300d\uff08\u5373\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5927\u5e45\u62cb\u552e\uff0c\u4f46\u8cc7\u91d1\u9010\u6b65\u8f49\u5411\u8f03\u5b89\u5168\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u6a19\u666e500\u958b\u5e02\u4ecd\u898b\u97cc\u6027\uff0c\u60df\u51f1\u6587\u30fb\u6c83\u4ec0\u8d74\u570b\u6703\u4f5c\u8b49\u6380\u653f\u7b56\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u505c\u706b\u671f\u9650\u5c46\u6eff\u4ea6\u63a8\u9ad8\u5730\u7de3\u98a8\u96aa\uff1b\u5e02\u5834\u5c4f\u606f\u89c0\u671b\uff0c\u6ce2\u5e45\u6216\u518d\u64f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45688\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}