\u767d\u9280\u5468\u4e8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5831\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f8\u7d0478.20\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u65e5\u5167\u8dcc1.88%\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5728Kevin Warsh\u51fa\u5e2d\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u78ba\u8a8d\u807d\u8b49\u3001\u7372\u63d0\u540d\u9818\u5c0e\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31\u300c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u300d\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u524d\u4fdd\u6301\u5be9\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n
Warsh\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5728\u53c3\u8b70\u9662\u9280\u884c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4f5c\u8b49\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u5728\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u5982\u4f55\u5f15\u5c0e\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5373\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u900f\u904e\u5229\u7387\u8207\u8cb7\u8ce3\u8cc7\u7522\u5f71\u97ff\u901a\u8139\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff08\u5373\u4e0d\u53d7\u653f\u5e9c\u76f4\u63a5\u5e72\u9810\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u80fd\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b70\u7a0b\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728CNBC\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5Warsh\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u4e0d\u8fc5\u901f\u6e1b\u606f\uff08\u4e0b\u8abf\u5229\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u6703\u611f\u5230\u300c\u5931\u671b\u300d\u3002\u8a00\u8ad6\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u805a\u7126\uff1a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5426\u9762\u81e8\u653f\u6cbb\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n
Warsh\u7684\u63d0\u540d\u8207\u767d\u9280\u65e9\u524d\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6709\u95dc\u30021\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u767d\u9280\u5728\u89f8\u53ca\u7d04121.60\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u7d2f\u8dcc\u903e30%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\u4ea6\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u5143\uff08US Dollar\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u5f37\uff09\u4e26\u62d6\u7d2f\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c\u30023\u6708\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\uff08Retail Sales\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u958b\u652f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u589e\u95771.7%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u76841.4%\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e02\u5834\u4ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u4f0a\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\uff1b\u6709\u5831\u9053\u6307\u5fb7\u9ed1\u862d\u6216\u9858\u610f\u91cd\u555f\u8207\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u8ac7\u5224\u3002\u767d\u9280\u5f8c\u5e02\u8d70\u5411\u6216\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bcWarsh\u807d\u8b49\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n
\u503c\u5f97\u56de\u9867\u53bb\u5e74\u5e02\u5834\u5c0dKevin Warsh\u78ba\u8a8d\u807d\u8b49\u7684\u5be9\u614e\u60c5\u7dd2\uff0c\u5c0d\u4eca\u65e5\u5e02\u5834\u5177\u53c3\u8003\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u767d\u9280\u57282025\u5e74\u521d\u81ea\u7d04121\u7f8e\u5143\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6025\u632b30%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u5c0d\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u50be\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u606f\u4ee5\u58d3\u901a\u8139\uff09\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53d6\u614b\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a81\u986f\uff1a\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u8a8d\u70ba\u653f\u7b56\u66f4\u5229\u597d\u5f37\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f37\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u6642\uff0c\u767d\u9280\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u6703\u986f\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ee52026\u5e744\u670821\u65e5\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6c92\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u63d0\u540d\u5f15\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u56e0\u7d20\u4ecd\u5728\u767c\u9175\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c3\u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0cCPI\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u91cf\u5ea6\u901a\u8139\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u4ecd\u90543.5%\uff1b\u540c\u6642\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d30.3\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u5747\u52dd\u9810\u671f\u3002\u504f\u5f37\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u8feb\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u5ef6\u5f8c\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8868\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5c0d\u767d\u9280\u69cb\u6210\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u60c5\u6cc1\u8207\u53bb\u5e74Warsh\u56e0\u7d20\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u76f8\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5c0d\u4ea4\u6613\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u503c\u7531\u6a19\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u884d\u751f\u800c\u4f86\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u74b0\u5883\u610f\u5473\u50f9\u683c\u53d7\u58d3\u8207\u6ce2\u5e45\u504f\u9ad8\u6216\u6301\u7e8c\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u767d\u9280\u671f\u8ca8\uff08futures\uff0c\u5373\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u7d66\u4e88\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u300c\u718a\u5e02\u8a8d\u6cbd\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08bear put spread\uff0c\u5373\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u3001\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4e26\u9650\u5b9a\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u56de\u5831\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u65e2\u6709\u9577\u5009\uff08long positions\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u597d\u3001\u6301\u6709\u8cb7\u5165\u90e8\u4f4d\uff09\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u6025\u8dcc\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u63d0\u9192\u5e02\u5834\uff1a\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8a00\u8ad6\u51fa\u73fe\u524d\uff0c\u61c9\u9810\u5099\u4fdd\u8b77\u6027\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n
\u767d\u9280\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5728\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08Federal Open Market Committee\uff0cFOMC\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u5236\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff09\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6599\u4fdd\u6301\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u6216\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u8ce3\u51fa\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff08option premium\uff0c\u5373\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\/\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4ee5\u5be6\u7269\u767d\u9280\u6216\u76f8\u95dcETF\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u4f5c\u57fa\u790e\u8ce3\u51fa\u5099\u514c\u8a8d\u8cfc\uff08covered call\uff0c\u5373\u6301\u6709\u6a19\u7684\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff1b\u4e0a\u5347\u6536\u76ca\u53d7\u9650\u4f46\u53ef\u90e8\u5206\u62b5\u92b7\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u986f\u793a\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u53ef\u7a81\u7136\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u8f03\u6709\u4e0a\u9650\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff08defined-risk\uff0c\u5373\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u9810\u5148\u53ef\u8a08\u7b97\uff09\u4e00\u822c\u6bd4\u6c92\u6709\u5c0d\u6c96\u7684\u6301\u5009\u66f4\u5408\u9069\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ea6\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u4f8b\u59821980\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4fdd\u7f85\u30fb\u6c83\u723e\u514b\uff08Paul Volcker\uff09\u5927\u5e45\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u7d50\u675f\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c\u4e0a\u4e00\u8f2a\u725b\u5e02\u3002\u9019\u6bb5\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a2025\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u53cd\u6620\uff1a\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u662f\u5f71\u97ff\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u61c9\u7dad\u6301\u5be9\u614e\uff0c\u4e26\u904b\u7528\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u7ba1\u7406\u8207\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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