{"id":45190,"date":"2026-04-16T21:07:22","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T21:07:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/45190\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T21:07:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T21:07:22","slug":"%e6%98%9f%e5%b1%95%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8cradhika-rao%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e6%88%b0%e5%be%8c%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e9%a1%af%e7%a4%ba%e6%89%b9%e7%99%bc%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e4%b8%8a%e5%8d%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/45190\/","title":{"rendered":"\u661f\u5c55\u9280\u884cRadhika Rao\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u6230\u5f8c\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u6279\u767c\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\u3001CPI\u7565\u70ba\u56de\u5347\uff0cWPI\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6500\u5347"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u885d\u7a81\u5f8c\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6279\u767c\u901a\u8139\uff08Wholesale inflation\uff09\u66f4\u8da8\u5805\u633a\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e00\u822c\u5e02\u6c11\u6d88\u8cbb\u7c43\u5b50\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u5247\u6eab\u548c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6279\u767c\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08WPI\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5de5\u5ee0\u51fa\u5ee0\u50f9\u53ca\u6279\u767c\u5c64\u9762\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u53ca\u9032\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u8b8a\u5316\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9810\u6599\u5728\u300c\u57fa\u6578\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08Base effects\uff1a\u56e0\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u57fa\u6578\u9ad8\u4f4e\u800c\u4ee4\u540c\u6bd4\u5347\u5e45\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u6216\u6536\u7a84\uff09\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u77ed\u671f\u5167\uff0c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u6703\u5927\u65bc\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u95dc\u9375\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u6301\u7e8c\u591a\u4e45\u3002\u52302026\u8ca1\u5e74\uff08FY26\uff09\uff0c\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u88ab\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u670d\u52d9\u51fa\u53e3\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u4ee4\u5168\u5e74\u7d93\u5e38\u5e33\u8d64\u5b57\uff08Current account deficit\uff1a\u8ca8\u7269\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u6536\u5165\u7b49\u5c0d\u5916\u6536\u652f\u7684\u6de8\u8d64\u5b57\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728GDP\u7684\u7d04-0.6%\u81f3-0.7%\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Bond Yields Outlook<\/h3>\n<p>\u9810\u671f\u5370\u5ea6\u50b5\u606f\uff08Bond yields\uff1a\u50b5\u5238\u5229\u7387\uff09\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5340\u9593\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u529b\u91cf\u4e92\u76f8\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u672a\u518d\u5347\u7d1a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u50b5\u606f\u6599\u7dad\u6301\u57286.8%\u81f37.0%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9280\u884c\u9ad4\u7cfb\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff08Liquidity\uff1a\u8cc7\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u5145\u8db3\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u592e\u884c\uff08RBI\uff09\u900f\u904e\u884c\u653f\u63aa\u65bd\u6e1b\u6162\u76e7\u6bd4\u55ae\u908a\u8cb6\u503c\uff1b\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u5370\u5ea6\u76e7\u6bd4\uff08USD\/INR\uff09\u5728\u9031\u4e2d\u7dad\u6301\u65bc93.00\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e9\u524d3\u6708\u66fe\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d95.0\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ea6\u6709\u5831\u9053\u6307\u76f8\u95dc\u63aa\u65bd\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\uff08Portfolio flows\uff1a\u5916\u8cc7\u8cb7\u8ce3\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u7b49\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u9032\u51fa\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7126\u9ede\u662f\uff0c\u6279\u767c\u7269\u50f9\u901a\u8139\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6bd4\u6d88\u8cbb\u901a\u8139\u5347\u5f97\u66f4\u5feb\u3002\u6700\u65b02026\u5e743\u6708\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793aWPI\u70ba5.8%\uff0c\u78ba\u8a8d\u4e86\u6b64\u8da8\u52e2\u30022025\u5e74\u521d\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u5347\uff08Commodity shocks\uff1a\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u6642\u4ea6\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e0a\u884c\u58d3\u529b\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6578\u6389\u671f\uff08OIS\uff0cOvernight Index Swaps\uff1a\u4ee5\u9694\u591c\u5229\u7387\u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u52a0\u606f\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6216\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u9632\u5099\u592e\u884c\u8f49\u8da8\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08Hawkish\uff1a\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u3001\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u7684\u7a69\u5065\u5c0d\u6c96\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9810\u671f\u5370\u5ea6\u570b\u50b5\u606f\u77ed\u671f\u4ecd\u6703\u53d7\u5236\u65bc6.8%\u81f37.0%\u7684\u7a84\u5e45\u901a\u9053\u300210\u5e74\u671f\u50b5\u606f\u73fe\u6642\u63a5\u8fd1\u5340\u9593\u9802\u90e8\u7d046.95%\uff0c\u60c5\u6cc1\u985e\u4f3c2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u7684\u7a84\u5e45\u6574\u56fa\u3002\u6b64\u985e\u74b0\u5883\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u572810\u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Bond futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u570b\u50b5\u4f5c\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4e0a\u8ce3\u51fa\u300c\u5bec\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6b0a\u300d\uff08Strangles\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8cfa\u53d6\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff08Premium\uff1a\u671f\u6b0a\u8cb7\u65b9\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Currency And Reserves<\/h3>\n<p>\u532f\u5e02\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u592e\u884c\u6b63\u4e3b\u52d5\u58d3\u5236\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u76e7\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76e7\u6bd4\u5931\u63a7\u5f0f\u8cb6\u503c\u3002\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u7531\u4e0a\u6708\u7d0495.00\u7684\u7d00\u9304\u9ad8\u4f4d\u56de\u843d\u81f393.00\u5f8c\uff0c\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d\uff08Implied volatility\uff1a\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ee4\u671f\u6b0a\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u5370\u5ea6\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\uff08Foreign exchange reserves\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5916\u5e63\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u7a69\u5b9a\u532f\u7387\u53ca\u61c9\u4ed8\u5916\u90e8\u885d\u64ca\uff09\u57282026\u5e742\u6708\u5347\u81f36,550\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee4\u592e\u884c\u6709\u5145\u8db3\u5b50\u5f48\u5ef6\u7e8c\u76f8\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u76e7\u6bd4\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08Put options\uff1a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u4f5c\u4fdd\u96aa\uff09\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u56de\u5831\uff08Risk-reward\uff1a\u6f5b\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u76f8\u5c0d\u6f5b\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u4e0a\u8f03\u5438\u5f15\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u661f\u5c55\u9280\u884cRadhika 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