{"id":45189,"date":"2026-04-16T21:02:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T21:02:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/45189\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T21:02:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T21:02:06","slug":"%e5%a8%81%e5%bb%89%e5%a7%86%e6%96%af%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e6%b0%b4%e5%b9%b3%e9%81%a9%e5%90%88%e8%bc%83%e9%ab%98%e9%a2%a8%e9%9a%aa%e7%9a%84%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e7%92%b0%e5%a2%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/45189\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u9069\u5408\u8f03\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u5f71\u97ff\u50f9\u683c\u53ca\u5546\u54c1\u4f9b\u61c9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>John Williams\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u984d\u5916\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u5c6c\u5408\u9069\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6230\u4e8b\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u6311\u6230\u8b8a\u5f97\u65b0\u589e\u4e14\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u7a31\uff0c\u6230\u722d\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u4e0d\u50c5\u5f71\u97ff\u7269\u50f9\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\uff08\u5982\u539f\u6cb9\u3001\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u3001\u91d1\u5c6c\u8207\u8fb2\u7522\u54c1\u7b49\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u6750\u6599\uff09\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u91cf\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u53c8\u6307\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u5e02\u5834\u97cc\u6027\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u5347\u885d\u64ca\uff08\u6cb9\u50f9\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5373\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u58d3\u529b\uff09\u7684\u627f\u53d7\u5ea6\u8f03\u4ee5\u5f80\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Fed Policy On Hold<\/h3>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\uff08\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u5bb6\u5ead\u3001\u4f01\u696d\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u901a\u8139\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u4fdd\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u6708\u901a\u8139\u5c07\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc3%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7db2\u7d61\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u9ed1\u5ba2\u5165\u4fb5\u3001\u7cfb\u7d71\u7671\u7613\u7b49\u5c0d\u91d1\u878d\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u9020\u6210\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u95dc\u6ce8\u9ede\u3002\u4ed6\u7a31\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u4ecd\u5f37\u8207\u6230\u4e8b\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u62c9\u92f8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u885d\u7a81\u62d6\u5f97\u8d8a\u4e45\uff0c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u6642\u4e0d\u9069\u5408\u7531\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u63d0\u4f9b\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff08forward guidance\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u5c31\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\u4f5c\u51fa\u6e05\u6670\u627f\u8afe\u6216\u8a0a\u865f\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u900f\u904e\u52a0\u6e1b\u606f\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u64cd\u4f5c\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u4f4d\u7f6e\u6070\u7576\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9451\u65bc\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u91cb\u653e\u300c\u66ab\u505c\u4e0d\u52d5\u300d\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4e0d\u61c9\u9810\u671f\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08federal funds rate\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u9694\u591c\u62c6\u501f\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\uff095.25%\u81f35.50%\u51fa\u73fe\u8b8a\u52d5\u3002\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6e05\u6670\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u610f\u5473SOFR\u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u4ee5SOFR\u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff1bSOFR\u70ba\u300c\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u570b\u4ee5\u570b\u50b5\u4f5c\u62b5\u62bc\u7684\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u6210\u672c\uff09\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff08premium\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u671f\u6b0a\u6240\u652f\u4ed8\/\u6536\u53d6\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u6216\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u66f4\u53d7\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u800c\u975e\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8868\u614b\u5e36\u52d5\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u9700\u7559\u610f\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f2a\u901a\u8139\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u516c\u5e03\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u6025\u5287\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Market Volatility Strategies<\/h3>\n<p>\u901a\u8139\u6599\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4ecd\u300c\u9ecf\u6027\u300d\u504f\u9ad8\uff08sticky inflation\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u7de9\u6162\u3001\u8f03\u96e3\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u6708\u7dad\u6301\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc3%\u3002\u6700\u65b02026\u5e743\u6708CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u986f\u793a\u5347\u81f33.6%\uff0c\u82072025\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6642\u9593\u7684\u901a\u8139\u653e\u7de9\u8da8\u52e2\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u62bc\u6ce8\u5373\u5c07\u6e1b\u606f\u672a\u5fc5\u5408\u7406\u3002\u901a\u8139\u6389\u671f\u5e02\u5834\uff08inflation swaps\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4ee5\u5408\u7d04\u4ea4\u63db\u56fa\u5b9a\u901a\u8139\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u901a\u8139\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u5c0d\u6c96\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u901a\u8139\uff09\u4ea6\u53cd\u6620\u300c\u9ad8\u606f\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u4ecd\u662f\u6700\u5927\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u4f86\u6e90\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5e36\u4f86\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u4f9b\u61c9\u77ed\u7f3a\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u56e0\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u54bd\u5589\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u5e72\u64fe\u800c\u4e00\u5ea6\u5347\u7a7f\u6bcf\u6876115\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u539f\u6cb9\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u90e8\u7f72\u61c9\u5c0d\u5c40\u52e2\u5347\u7d1a\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u6b63\u7531\u300c\u6210\u672c\u300d\u8f49\u5411\u300c\u53ef\u5426\u4f9b\u61c9\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u52a0\u4e0a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8VIX\uff08\u6a19\u666e500\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u65bc\u7d0424\u6c34\u5e73\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8cb7\u5165\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08buying volatility\uff0c\u5373\u900f\u904e\u671f\u6b0a\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\u62bc\u6ce8\/\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u6216\u6210\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6301\u6709VIX\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u6307\u7684\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money puts\uff0c\u5373\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u4f4e\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u8f03\u4f4e\u4f46\u9700\u66f4\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\u624d\u7372\u5229\uff09\u53ef\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u7a81\u767c\u885d\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5728\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5177\u97cc\u6027\u300d\u8207\u5916\u570d\u98a8\u96aa\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u66ab\u6642\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u6216\u4ee4\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u6307\u51fa\u73fe\u53cd\u8986\u3001\u5340\u9593\u4e0a\u843d\uff08range-bound\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u9ad8\u4f4e\u4f4d\u4e4b\u9593\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728SPX\uff08\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u671f\u6b0a\u5e38\u7528\u4ee3\u865f\uff09\u4e0a\u904b\u7528\u9435\u79c3\u9df9\u7b56\u7565\uff08iron condor\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e00\u7d44\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u6cbd\u4e26\u8cb7\u5165\u66f4\u9060\u50f9\u5916\u671f\u6b0a\u4f5c\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u8cfa\u53d6\u6642\u9593\u503c\u6d41\u5931\uff09\u6216\u6709\u52a9\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u6b0a\u6642\u9593\u503c\uff08premium decay\uff0c\u671f\u6b0a\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u63a8\u79fb\u50f9\u503c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u63d0\u53ca\u7db2\u7d61\u98a8\u96aa\u4ea6\u610f\u5473\u9700\u63d0\u9632\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u300d\uff08black swan\uff0c\u6975\u7f55\u898b\u4f46\u885d\u64ca\u5de8\u5927\u4e14\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6599\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff09\u7a81\u7136\u6253\u7834\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u5132\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u7576\u524d\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u5207\u5408\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u7d93\u6fdf\u74b0\u5883\uff1b\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u6216\u63a8\u9ad8\u7269\u50f9\u3001\u64fe\u4e82\u5546\u54c1\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u63d0\u9632\u901a\u8139\u518d\u5347\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5287\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One 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