{"id":44917,"date":"2026-04-14T17:05:45","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T17:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44917\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T17:05:45","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T17:05:45","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e8%98%ad%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%ab%e6%96%99%e5%a2%a8%e8%a5%bf%e5%93%a5%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c5%e6%9c%88%e5%88%9d%e6%b8%9b%e6%81%af25%e9%bb%9e%e5%ad%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44917\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u862d\u5408\u4f5c\u9280\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u6599\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u592e\u884c5\u6708\u521d\u6e1b\u606f25\u9ede\u5b50\uff0c\u5e74\u5e95\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f36.50%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rabobank \u9810\u671f\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u592e\u884c\uff08Banxico\uff09\u5c07\u5728 2026 \u5e74 5 \u6708 7 \u65e5\u7684\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u518d\u6e1b\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08\u5373 0.25 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u975e 6 \u6708\u3002\u9019\u5c07\u4ee4\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u7531 6.75% \u964d\u81f3 6.50%\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>Banxico \u7684\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4ee5\u591a\u6578\u8868\u6c7a\uff0c\u628a\u9694\u591c\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u62c6\u606f\u76ee\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8abf 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f3 6.75%\u3002\u7d00\u9304\u7a31\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u5c6c\u300c\u9650\u5236\u6027\u300d\uff08\u5373\u5229\u7387\u504f\u9ad8\u3001\u7528\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u901a\u8139\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u75b2\u5f31\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u7522\u80fd\u9592\u7f6e\uff08slack\uff0c\u6307\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee4\u8cc7\u6e90\u672a\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4e3b\u8981\u8207\u300c\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u300d\uff08transitory relative-price shocks\uff0c\u6307\u500b\u5225\u5546\u54c1\u6216\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u77ed\u671f\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\uff09\u6709\u95dc\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u7d00\u9304\u7a31\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6c7a\u7b56\u5c07\u8996\u4e4e\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8207\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u3002Banxico \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u671f\u5167\u4ee4\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u6307\u5305\u542b\u98df\u54c1\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u7e3d\u901a\u8139\uff09\u56de\u843d\u4e26\u9760\u8fd1 3% \u76ee\u6a19\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>Rabobank \u6307\u51fa\uff0cBanxico \u6703\u8b70\u5728 3 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4.5%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc 3% \u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee4\u6c7a\u7b56\u66f4\u56f0\u96e3\u3002\u7269\u50f9\u56de\u843d\u6162\uff08\u5373\u901a\u8139\u300c\u9ecf\u6027\u300d\u8f03\u9ad8\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u592e\u884c\u9078\u64c7\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3001\u800c\u975e\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ea6\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u901a\u8139\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u5347\u5f8c\uff0cBanxico \u66ab\u505c\u6e1b\u606f\u5468\u671f\u3002\u9019\u53cd\u6620\u592e\u884c\u300c\u8996\u6578\u64da\u800c\u5b9a\u300d\uff08data-dependent\uff0c\u5373\u6309\u6700\u65b0\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u8abf\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff09\uff0c\u82e5\u6182\u616e\u300c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f2a\u901a\u8139\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u6307\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u5f15\u767c\u5de5\u8cc7\u8207\u50f9\u683c\u9023\u9396\u4e0a\u8abf\uff0c\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u81ea\u6211\u5f37\u5316\uff09\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u5f80\u5f8c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u592e\u884c\u662f\u5426\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u6642\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u5c6c\u77ed\u66ab\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u6307\u8cb7\u8ce3\u671f\u6b0a\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u70ba\u4e00\u65e6\u6e1b\u606f\u5c0e\u81f4\u62ab\u7d22\u8f49\u5f31\u4f5c\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u62ab\u7d22\uff08USD\/MXN\uff09\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call 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\u65e5\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u78ba\u53cd\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8377\u862d\u5408\u4f5c\u9280\u884c\u6599\u58a8\u592e\u884c5\u6708\u521d\u6e1b\u606f25\u9ede\u5b50\uff0c\u70ba\u5bec\u9b06\u9031\u671f\u6380\u5e8f\u5e55\uff1b\u96a8\u901a\u8139\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5e74\u5e95\u6216\u964d\u81f36.50%\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u52e2\u518d\u5b9a\u50f9\u58a8\u50b5\u8207\u62ab\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" 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