Rabobank \u9810\u671f\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u592e\u884c\uff08Banxico\uff09\u5c07\u5728 2026 \u5e74 5 \u6708 7 \u65e5\u7684\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u518d\u6e1b\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08\u5373 0.25 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u975e 6 \u6708\u3002\u9019\u5c07\u4ee4\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u7531 6.75% \u964d\u81f3 6.50%\u3002 <\/p>\n
Banxico \u7684\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4ee5\u591a\u6578\u8868\u6c7a\uff0c\u628a\u9694\u591c\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u62c6\u606f\u76ee\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8abf 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u81f3 6.75%\u3002\u7d00\u9304\u7a31\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u5c6c\u300c\u9650\u5236\u6027\u300d\uff08\u5373\u5229\u7387\u504f\u9ad8\u3001\u7528\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u901a\u8139\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u75b2\u5f31\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u7522\u80fd\u9592\u7f6e\uff08slack\uff0c\u6307\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee4\u8cc7\u6e90\u672a\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4e3b\u8981\u8207\u300c\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u300d\uff08transitory relative-price shocks\uff0c\u6307\u500b\u5225\u5546\u54c1\u6216\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u77ed\u671f\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\uff09\u6709\u95dc\u3002 <\/p>\n
\u7d00\u9304\u7a31\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6c7a\u7b56\u5c07\u8996\u4e4e\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8207\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u3002Banxico \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u671f\u5167\u4ee4\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u6307\u5305\u542b\u98df\u54c1\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u7e3d\u901a\u8139\uff09\u56de\u843d\u4e26\u9760\u8fd1 3% \u76ee\u6a19\u3002 <\/p>\n
Rabobank \u6307\u51fa\uff0cBanxico \u6703\u8b70\u5728 3 \u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5c45\u6c11\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u901a\u8139\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u5df2\u8209\u884c\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u5411\u4e0b\u884c\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u8139\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u300c\u975e\u6838\u5fc3\u9805\u76ee\u300d\uff08non-core\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u98df\u54c1\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u885d\u64ca\u63a8\u52d5\u3002 <\/p>\n
Rabobank \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u5411\u300c\u4e0d\u518d\u6e1b\u606f\u300d\uff08\u5373\u672a\u4f86\u6216\u66ab\u505c\u5bec\u9b06\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n
Rabobank \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b63\u8abf\u6574\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u628a 5 \u6708 7 \u65e5 Banxico \u6703\u8b70\u6e1b\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7d0d\u5165\u57fa\u6e96\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3 6.50%\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u5e74\u5e95\u3002\u592e\u884c\u59d4\u54e1\u4f3c\u4e4e\u9858\u610f\u5ffd\u7565\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u8f49\u5f31\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002 <\/p>\n
\u652f\u6301\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u7406\u64da\u5305\u62ec\u8fd1\u671f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6578\u64da\uff1a\u58a8\u897f\u54e5 IGAE \u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6307\u6a19\uff08\u985e\u4f3c\u300c\u6708\u5ea6 GDP\u300d\u7684\u7d9c\u5408\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u8ffd\u8e64\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\uff09\u4e0a\u6708\u8f15\u5fae\u6536\u7e2e\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u589e\u9577\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u5411\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u3002\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u4ea6\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u59d4\u54e1\u50be\u5411\u66f4\u91cd\u8996\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u3002 <\/p>\n
\u4f46\u8def\u5f91\u672a\u660e\u30023 \u6708 CPI \u901a\u8139\u70ba 4.5%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc 3% \u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee4\u6c7a\u7b56\u66f4\u56f0\u96e3\u3002\u7269\u50f9\u56de\u843d\u6162\uff08\u5373\u901a\u8139\u300c\u9ecf\u6027\u300d\u8f03\u9ad8\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u592e\u884c\u9078\u64c7\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3001\u800c\u975e\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 <\/p>\n
2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ea6\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u901a\u8139\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u5347\u5f8c\uff0cBanxico \u66ab\u505c\u6e1b\u606f\u5468\u671f\u3002\u9019\u53cd\u6620\u592e\u884c\u300c\u8996\u6578\u64da\u800c\u5b9a\u300d\uff08data-dependent\uff0c\u5373\u6309\u6700\u65b0\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u8abf\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff09\uff0c\u82e5\u6182\u616e\u300c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f2a\u901a\u8139\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u6307\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u5f15\u767c\u5de5\u8cc7\u8207\u50f9\u683c\u9023\u9396\u4e0a\u8abf\uff0c\u4ee4\u901a\u8139\u81ea\u6211\u5f37\u5316\uff09\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6703\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u5f80\u5f8c\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u592e\u884c\u662f\u5426\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u6642\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u5c6c\u77ed\u66ab\u3002 <\/p>\n
\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u6307\u8cb7\u8ce3\u671f\u6b0a\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u70ba\u4e00\u65e6\u6e1b\u606f\u5c0e\u81f4\u62ab\u7d22\u8f49\u5f31\u4f5c\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u62ab\u7d22\uff08USD\/MXN\uff09\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u67d0\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u8ca8\u5e63\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\uff1b\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u9810\u5148\u9396\u5b9a\u6700\u5927\u8667\u640d\u3002 <\/p>\n
\u7d93\u6fdf\u75b2\u5f31\u8207\u901a\u8139\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u532f\u50f9\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u6307\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u6216\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u300c\u5927\u5e45\u55ae\u908a\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u76f8\u540c\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u53ca\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u7684\u770b\u6f32\u8207\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u4e0a\u5927\u843d\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8f03\u5408\u9069\uff1b\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u62bc\u6ce8 5 \u6708 7 \u65e5\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u78ba\u53cd\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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