{"id":44815,"date":"2026-04-13T19:06:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T19:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44815\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T19:06:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T19:06:04","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%ad%89%e5%88%b8%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%ab%e7%a8%b1%ef%bc%8c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e7%99%bc%e5%b1%95%e3%80%81%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e5%8f%8a%e7%b6%93","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44815\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u7a31\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52e2\u767c\u5c55\u3001\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6578\u64da\u5c07\u5de6\u53f3\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9810\u671f\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u5b8f\u89c0\u8da8\u52e2"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities \u7b56\u7565\u5e2b Oscar Munoz \u53ca Eli Nir \u5c07\u7f8e\u570b\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u74b0\u5883\u53ca\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff09\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u9023\u7e6b\u5230\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52e2\u3001\u8fd1\u671f\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6578\u64da\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u53ca\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u589e\u52a0\u300c\u6eef\u8139\u300d\uff08stagflation\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\u751a\u81f3\u505c\u6eef\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u901a\u8139\u504f\u9ad8\uff09\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee4\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7dad\u6301\u504f\u7dca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u4e00\u76f4\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u81f3 2026 \u5e74 9 \u6708\uff0c\u671f\u9593\u8a55\u4f30\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52e2\u53ca\u5176\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4ea6\u4f30\u8a08\u5c46\u6642\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u9032\u5c55\u6703\u91cd\u65b0\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u9010\u6b65\u8d70\u5411\u8f03\u300c\u4e2d\u6027\u300d\uff08neutral stance\uff1a\u65e2\u4e0d\u523b\u610f\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u4e5f\u4e0d\u523b\u610f\u58d3\u6291\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n

Higher Oil Prices Raise Stagflation Risks<\/h3>\n

\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6e2c 2026 \u5e74\u5408\u5171\u6e1b\u606f 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bps\uff0cbasis points\uff1a\u57fa\u9ede\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u5728 9 \u6708\u53ca 12 \u6708\u5404\u6e1b 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u4ea6\u9810\u8a08 2027 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u518d\u6e1b 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Fed funds rate\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u9694\u591c\u62c6\u501f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u964d\u81f3 3.00%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u5167\u5bb9\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08Artificial Intelligence\uff1a\u4ee5\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u8655\u7406\u53ca\u751f\u6210\u5167\u5bb9\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u6280\u8853\uff09\u5354\u52a9\u4e0b\u88fd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e26\u7531\u7de8\u8f2f\u5be9\u95b1\uff1b\u4ea6\u6307\u672a\u4f86\u6c7a\u7b56\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u4e4b\u5f8c\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6578\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9451\u65bc\u8fd1\u65e5\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff1a\u4e2d\u6771\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u904b\u901a\u9053\uff09\u9644\u8fd1\u5c40\u52e2\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e0a\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u7684 3 \u6708 CPI\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff1a\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u8139\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u5347\u5e45\u9054 3.1%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u4fdd\u6301\u8010\u6027\u3002\u592e\u884c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728 9 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ee5\u8a55\u4f30\u4e0a\u8ff0\u767c\u5c55\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u9019\u689d\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f91\u5c07\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u6578\u64da\u6703\u5426\u8feb\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6539\u8b8a\u7acb\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u904e\u65e9\u62bc\u6ce8\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Fed funds futures\uff1a\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u986f\u793a 7 \u6708\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u63a5\u8fd1 40%\uff0c\u5728\u73fe\u6642\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u904e\u65bc\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u300c\u504f\u9df9\u5f0f\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u300d\uff08hawkish hold\uff1a\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4f46\u7acb\u5834\u504f\u5411\u6297\u901a\u8139\u3001\u4e0d\u6025\u65bc\u653e\u5bec\uff09\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6cbd\u51fa\u8fd1\u6708 SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\uff08SOFR futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u6709\u62b5\u62bc\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\u4f5c\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u5176\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08puts\uff1a\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

Positioning For Volatility And Defensive Trades<\/h3>\n

\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u52a0\u4e0a\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\u504f\u9ad8\uff08sticky inflation\uff1a\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u7de9\u6162\u3001\u5bb9\u6613\u53cd\u5f48\uff09\u610f\u5473\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002VIX \u6307\u6578\uff08VIX\uff1a\u4ee5\u6a19\u666e 500 \u671f\u6b0a\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u56de\u5347\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1 19\uff0c\u8f03\u5be9\u614e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u6301\u6709\u9632\u8b77\uff0c\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u7a81\u767c\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u8cb7\u5165 VIX \u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff1a\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u76f8\u95dc ETF\uff08exchange-traded fund\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff1a\u4ee5\u76f8\u53cd\u90e8\u4f4d\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6eef\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u8996\u3002WTI \u539f\u6cb9\uff08West Texas Intermediate\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u57fa\u6e96\u539f\u6cb9\uff09\u73fe\u6642\u7a69\u5b88\u6bcf\u6876 98 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u6211\u5011\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u300d\uff08geopolitical risk premium\uff1a\u56e0\u6230\u4e8b\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u4ee4\u50f9\u683c\u984d\u5916\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u4ee4\u770b\u597d\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u5229\u7528\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u50f9\u5dee\uff08call spreads\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u3001\u6cbd\u51fa\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u6700\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u6216 USO ETF\uff08\u8ffd\u8e64\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u754c\u5b9a\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0b\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u6f5b\u5728\u5347\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56de\u9867\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u66fe\u91cb\u51fa\u66f4\u6709\u8010\u6027\u7684\u53d6\u614b\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u901a\u8139\u6bd4\u9810\u6e2c\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u65e9\u524d\u61a7\u61ac 2026 \u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u591a\u6b21\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u5efa\u57fa\u65bc\u901a\u8139\u6301\u7e8c\u56de\u843d\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u4f46\u8a72\u8da8\u52e2\u73fe\u5df2\u505c\u6eef\u3002\u9019\u6bb5\u6b77\u53f2\u652f\u6301\u6211\u5011\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u73fe\u6642\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u958b\u59cb\u653e\u5bec\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9580\u6abb\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u4f01\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u504f\u7dca\u53ef\u80fd\u64e0\u58d3\u5229\u6f64\u7387\uff08margins\uff1a\u4f01\u696d\u8cfa\u53d6\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\uff0c\u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u8b70\u5229\u7528\u671f\u6b0a\u5728\u5c0d\u589e\u9577\u8f03\u654f\u611f\u7684\u6307\u6578\uff08growth-sensitive indices\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\u6642\u66f4\u6613\u53d7\u58d3\u7684\u677f\u584a\/\u6307\u6578\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7d0d\u65af\u9054\u514b 100 \u6307\u6578\uff08Nasdaq 100\uff1a\u4ee5\u5927\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u53ca\u589e\u9577\u80a1\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1\u6307\u6578\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u9632\u5b88\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u6cbd\u50f9\u5dee\uff08put spreads\uff1a\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\u3001\u6cbd\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u6cbd\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u6216\u6cbd\u51fa\u50f9\u5916\u8a8d\u8cfc\u50f9\u5dee\uff08out-of-the-money call spreads\uff1a\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u4f46\u9650\u5236\u4e0a\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u590f\u5b63\u671f\u9593\u70ba\u6f5b\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4f5c\u4e00\u5b9a\u4fdd\u8b77\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u9053\u660e\u8b49\u5238\u6307\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52e2\u5347\u6eab\u3001\u901a\u8139\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u5c07\u727d\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5de6\u53f3\u7f8e\u570b\u5b8f\u89c0\u8d70\u52e2\uff1b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5b9c\u7dca\u76ef\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u8b66\u60d5\u6ce2\u52d5\u6025\u589e\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44815\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}