\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u6b50\u5143\uff08EUR\/USD\uff09\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u8ac7\u5224\u6b77\u664221\u5c0f\u6642\u4ecd\u672a\u9054\u6210\u5354\u8b70\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u907f\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\uff08risk aversion\uff0c\u5373\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u50be\u5411\u6e1b\u5c11\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u3001\u8f49\u6295\u8f03\u4fdd\u5b88\u8cc7\u7522\uff09\u5347\u6eab\u3002\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u5728\u5468\u4e00\u958b\u5e02\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u8df3\u7a7a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u300d\uff08gap down\uff0c\u5373\u958b\u5e02\u50f9\u8f03\u524d\u4e00\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u6536\u5e02\u50f9\u660e\u986f\u504f\u4f4e\u3001\u50f9\u683c\u4e2d\u9593\u51fa\u73fe\u7f3a\u53e3\uff09\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\u5f98\u5f8a\u65bc1.1670\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u526f\u7e3d\u7d71JD Vance\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u5821\u7684\u6703\u8ac7\u672a\u80fd\u9054\u6210\u96d9\u65b9\u90fd\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5354\u8b70\uff1b\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u5e0c\u671b\u7372\u5f97\u660e\u78ba\u4fdd\u8b49\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u4e0d\u6703\u63a8\u9032\u6838\u6b66\uff08nuclear weapons\uff0c\u5373\u53ef\u7528\u65bc\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6bba\u50b7\u7684\u6838\u529b\u91cf\u6b66\u5668\uff09\u8a08\u5283\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7a31\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u5c07\u958b\u59cb\u5c01\u9396\u9032\u51fa\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u9023\u63a5\u6ce2\u65af\u7063\u8207\u5916\u6d77\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u822a\u9053\uff09\u8239\u96bb\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u53f8\u4ee4\u90e8\uff08CENTCOM\uff0c\u7f8e\u8ecd\u8ca0\u8cac\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u5340\u7684\u6307\u63ee\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u90e8\u968a\u5c07\u65bc\u5468\u4e00\u7f8e\u6771\u6642\u9593\u4e0a\u534810\u6642\uff08\u683c\u6797\u5a01\u6cbb\u6642\u959314:00\uff09\u8d77\uff0c\u5c01\u9396\u6240\u6709\u9032\u51fa\u4f0a\u6717\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u6d77\u4e0a\u4ea4\u901a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f0a\u6717\u8b70\u6703\u8b70\u9577\u7a46\u7f55\u9ed8\u5fb7\u30fb\u5df4\u84cb\u723e\u30fb\u5361\u5229\u5df4\u592b\u7a31\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u672a\u80fd\u53d6\u5f97\u4f0a\u6717\u4ee3\u8868\u5718\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u76ee\u524d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6b0a\u5728\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u3002\u4f0a\u6717\u9769\u547d\u885b\u968a\uff08Revolutionary Guard\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u7cbe\u92b3\u8ecd\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff09\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u7684\u8ecd\u8266\u5c07\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u9055\u53cd\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u9762\u5c0d\u679c\u65b7\u56de\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8ac7\u5224\u7834\u88c2\u52a0\u4e0a\u7f8e\u65b9\u5c01\u9396\u5728\u5373\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u5178\u578b\u5730\u300c\u8f49\u5411\u907f\u96aa\u300d\u6d41\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\u3002EUR\/USD\u8dcc\u81f31.1670\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u4e00\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u6b50\u5143\u6216\u7e8c\u53d7\u58d3\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6b50\u6d32\u5c0d\u80fd\u6e90\u9032\u53e3\u4f9d\u8cf4\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee4\u6b50\u5143\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\u66f4\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08options traders\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u671f\u6b0a\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff09\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165EUR\/USD\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08puts\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6216\u5c0d\u6c96\uff09\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u50f9\u5916\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money calls\uff0c\u5373\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u6536\u53d6\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\u3001\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0d\u5927\u5347\uff09\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5c07\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u4e0a\u61c9\u8fc5\u901f\u8f49\u70ba\u504f\u597d\u4e0a\u5347\uff08bullish\uff0c\u5373\u770b\u597d\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u300c\u6a3d\u9838\u300d\u822a\u9053\uff08chokepoint\uff0c\u5373\u5c11\u6578\u8def\u5f91\u63a7\u5236\u5927\u91cf\u904b\u8f38\u7684\u5730\u7406\u8981\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u5176\u8655\u7406\u5168\u7403\u903e20%\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u6db2\u9ad4\u6d88\u8017\uff08petroleum liquids consumption\uff0c\u5373\u539f\u6cb9\u53ca\u76f8\u95dc\u6db2\u9ad4\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u5c01\u9396\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u660e\u986f\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\uff08supply shock\uff0c\u5373\u4f9b\u61c9\u7a81\u7136\u6e1b\u5c11\u800c\u63a8\u9ad8\u50f9\u683c\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5efa\u7acbWTI\u8207\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08futures\uff0c\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u591a\u5009\u6216\u8cb7\u5165\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u5c07\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n
2022\u5e74\u521d\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u5730\u7de3\u885d\u7a81\u4ee4WTI\u539f\u6cb9\u5728\u6578\u5468\u5167\u7531\u7d0490\u7f8e\u5143\u98c6\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876\u903e130\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u53c3\u8003\u8a72\u5148\u4f8b\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u6cb9\u50f9\u6216\u53ef\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u6311\u62302025\u5e74\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff1b\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584a\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u80a1\u5e02\u5c11\u6578\u76f8\u5c0d\u5177\u9632\u5b88\u6027\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u907f\u96aa\u5347\u6eab\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u6253\u58d3\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u5229\u597d\u300c\u505a\u6de1\u300d\uff08short side\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3001\u900f\u904e\u6cbd\u7a7a\u6216\u76f8\u95dc\u5de5\u5177\u7372\u5229\uff09\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u5730\u7de3\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u52a0\u4e0a\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u7b49\u540c\u5411\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fb5\u6536\u300c\u96b1\u6027\u7a05\u300d\uff08\u5373\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u4fb5\u8755\u9700\u6c42\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u5229\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5e02\u5834\u6307\u6578\uff08broad market indices\uff0c\u5373\u53cd\u6620\u6574\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u6307\u6578\uff09\u5982\u6a19\u666e500\u8207\u6b50\u6d32Stoxx 50\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6b0a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5929\u6025\u5347\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u751a\u9ad8\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08CBOE Volatility Index\uff0cVIX\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u6a19\u666e500\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\u3001\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff09\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u89c0\u5bdf\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u53ef\u8cb7\u5165VIX\u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff0c\u5373\u7528\u76f8\u53cd\u6216\u76f8\u95dc\u4ea4\u6613\u6e1b\u5c11\u8667\u640d\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u6050\u614c\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u56de\u98672022\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u885d\u64ca\uff0cVIX\u66fe\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u6578\u65e5\u5167\u4e0a\u5347\u903e50%\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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