{"id":44706,"date":"2026-04-11T04:05:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T04:05:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44706\/"},"modified":"2026-04-11T04:05:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T04:05:52","slug":"%e4%b8%89%e8%97%a9%e5%b8%82%e8%81%af%e5%84%b2%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e8%a1%8c%e9%95%b7%e6%88%b4%e5%88%a9%e5%90%91%e8%b7%af%e9%80%8f%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%a5%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e6%8c%81%e7%ba%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44706\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e09\u85e9\u5e02\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u884c\u9577\u6234\u5229\u5411\u8def\u900f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u901a\u8139\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff1b\u5018\u885d\u7a81\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e09\u85e9\u5e02\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco\uff09\u884c\u9577\u746a\u9e97\u30fb\u6234\u5229\uff08Mary Daly\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u8fc5\u901f\u7d50\u675f\u3001\u6cb9\u50f9\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u5979\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u82e5\u901a\u8139\uff08\u7269\u50f9\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u9ad8\u4f01\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u9577\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u660e\u78ba\u898b\u5230\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6234\u5229\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u6cb9\u50f9\u885d\u64ca\u524d\uff0c\u58d3\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5df2\u5728\u63a8\u9032\uff0c\u4f46\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4ee4\u6240\u9700\u6642\u9593\u66f4\u9577\u3002\u5979\u8a8d\u70ba\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f4e\u65bc\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n

Outlook For Rates And Oil<\/h3>\n

\u5979\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u9577\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u524a\u5f31\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u5979\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u6c11\u773e\u5df2\u56e0\u64d4\u5fc3\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u51fa\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6234\u5229\u7a31\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9700\u8981\u5c07\u901a\u8139\u964d\u56de2%\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u907f\u514d\u5c0d\u5c31\u696d\u9020\u6210\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u640d\u5bb3\u3002\u5979\u5f62\u5bb9\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7a69\u5065\uff0c\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\uff08\u5c31\u696d\u8207\u5de5\u8cc7\u72c0\u6cc1\uff09\u66f4\u8da8\u5e73\u7a69\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u8207\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5927\u81f4\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5979\u8aaa\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6b63\u95dc\u6ce8\u885d\u7a81\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f01\u696d\u5982\u4f55\u628a\u6210\u672c\u8f49\u5ac1\u7d66\u5ba2\u6236\uff1b\u76ee\u524d\u770b\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u662f\u81e8\u6642\u9644\u52a0\u8cbb\uff08\u77ed\u671f\u984d\u5916\u6536\u8cbb\uff09\u800c\u975e\u6c38\u4e45\u52a0\u50f9\u3002\u5979\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u73fe\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u9650\u5236\u6027\uff08restrictive\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7387\u504f\u9ad8\u4ee5\u6291\u5236\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u7269\u50f9\uff09\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a8\u52d5\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u652f\u6301\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u4fdd\u6301\u5e73\u7a69\uff0c\u800c\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u6578\u64da\u4e0d\u6703\u4ee4\u5e02\u5834\u610f\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9451\u65bc\u6700\u65b0\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u6642\u9593\u53ef\u80fd\u8f03\u539f\u5148\u4f30\u8a08\u66f4\u9577\u30022026\u5e743\u6708\u6700\u65b0CPI\u70ba3.8%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc2%\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee4\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u653e\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff08policy easing\uff0c\u5373\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff09\u66f4\u70ba\u56f0\u96e3\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u4e4b\u8def\u88ab\u62c9\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n

\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff09\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u518d\u8d77\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5WTI\u539f\u6cb9\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\uff09\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876\u63a5\u8fd198\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u70ba2024\u5e74\u5e95\u77ed\u66ab\u98c6\u5347\u5f8c\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u6cb9\u50f9\u9577\u671f\u9ad8\u4f01\u6703\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u58d3\u6291\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u6368\u66f4\u68d8\u624b\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc\u6e1b\u606f\u6216\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n

Volatility And Market Positioning<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u8ce6\u4e88\u8cb7\u8ce3\u67d0\u8cc7\u7522\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6216\u9700\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u6301\u7e8c\u6ce2\u52d5\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\u3002CBOE\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff08VIX\uff0c\u53c8\u7a31\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u6a19\u666e500\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u7a7f19\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u53ca\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u62bc\u6ce8\u55ae\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u8f03\u9069\u5408\u63a1\u7528\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5e02\u5834\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u7b49\u4f5c\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4ea6\u53cd\u6620\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff1a\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Fed Funds futures\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u5df2\u57fa\u672c\u6392\u9664\u590f\u5b63\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d2026\u5e7412\u6708\u524d\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u964d\u81f340%\uff0c\u76f8\u5c0d\u5e74\u521d\u4ecd\u53cd\u6620\u5169\u6b21\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u986f\u8f49\u5411\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u7dd2\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5b63\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u822a\u7a7a\u80a1\u56e0\u6182\u616e\u51fa\u884c\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u5f31\u53ca\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u53d7\u58d3\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u7559\u610f\u4f01\u696d\u63a8\u51fa\u81e8\u6642\u9644\u52a0\u8cbb\uff0c\u9019\u5f80\u5f80\u4ee3\u8868\u5229\u6f64\u7387\uff08margin\uff09\u53d7\u58d3\uff0c\u4f46\u4f01\u696d\u672a\u5fc5\u9858\u610f\u4f5c\u6c38\u4e45\u52a0\u50f9\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u4f01\u696d\u8f49\u5ac1\u6210\u672c\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8a0a\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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