{"id":44591,"date":"2026-04-10T02:31:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T02:31:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44591\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T02:31:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T02:31:28","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%b0%b1%e6%a5%ad%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e7%96%b2%e5%bc%b1%e6%8b%96%e7%b4%af%e7%be%8e%e5%82%b5%e5%ad%b3%e6%81%af%e5%9b%9e%e8%90%bd%ef%bc%8c%e6%83%9fpce%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e9%bb%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44591\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u75b2\u5f31\u62d6\u7d2f\u7f8e\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u60dfPCE\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\u504f\u9ad8\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u56de\u843d\u81f398.80\u9644\u8fd1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08DXY\uff09\u5728\u7f8e\u570bPCE\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u300c\u9ecf\u6027\u300d\uff08\u5373\u901a\u8139\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\u3001\u5bb9\u6613\u53cd\u8986\uff09\u5f8c\uff0c\u8dcc\u81f3\u7d0498.80\u3002\u901a\u8139\u672a\u898b\u660e\u986f\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u4fdd\u6301\u5be9\u614e\u3002\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\uff08Initial Jobless Claims\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u6bcf\u5468\u65b0\u589e\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u7533\u8acb\uff0c\u5c6c\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u5373\u6642\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u610f\u5916\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u62d6\u7d2f\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6d88\u606f\u7565\u70ba\u964d\u6eab\u3002\u6709\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u5b98\u54e1\u7a31\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u65b9\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c0d\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u6216\u53ef\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u653e\u7de9\uff1b\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u4ea6\u91cb\u51fa\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u6216\u5c31\u771f\u4e3b\u9ee8\u89e3\u9664\u6b66\u88dd\uff08disarmament\uff0c\u5373\u653e\u4e0b\u53ca\u4ea4\u51fa\u6b66\u5668\uff09\u8207\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u5c55\u958b\u76f4\u63a5\u8ac7\u5224\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u4ecd\u5728\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u5340\u5167\u98a8\u96aa\u4f9d\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Major Fx Moves And Market Tone<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u56de\u843d\u53ca\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\u7a0d\u70ba\u6539\u5584\u4e0b\uff0cEUR\/USD\u4e0a\u8a661.1700\u9644\u8fd1\uff1bGBP\/USD\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u8f49\u5f31\u4e0b\u56de\u5347\u81f31.3430\u9644\u8fd1\u3002USD\/JPY\u5728159.00\u9644\u8fd1\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0c\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4ee4\u300c\u5957\u606f\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\uff08carry trade\uff0c\u5373\u501f\u5165\u4f4e\u606f\u8ca8\u5e63\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u9ad8\u606f\u8cc7\u7522\u4ee5\u8cfa\u53d6\u606f\u5dee\uff09\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\uff1bAUD\/USD\u5fae\u5347\u81f30.7080\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>WTI\u539f\u6cb9\uff08West Texas Intermediate\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u4f46\u8d70\u52e2\u8f49\u7a69\uff0c\u56e0\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5373\u6642\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u7684\u6182\u616e\u964d\u6eab\uff1b\u4e0d\u904e\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u4ecd\u70ba\u6cb9\u50f9\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6301\u3002\u91d1\u50f9\u5728\u7d044,771\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u4f01\u7a69\uff0c\u53d7\u60e0\u7f8e\u5143\u8f49\u5f31\u3001\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u672a\u9664\u3002<\/p>\n<p>4\u670810\u65e5\uff08\u5468\u4e94\uff09\u6578\u64da\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5fb7\u570bHICP\uff08Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices\uff0c\u6b50\u76df\u7d71\u4e00\u53e3\u5f91\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u3001\u7f8e\u570bCPI\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff09\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u5de5\u5ee0\u8a02\u55ae\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b78\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6578\u3001\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b781\u5e74\u53ca5\u5e74\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u6708\u5ea6\u8ca1\u653f\u9810\u7b97\u5831\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n<p>WTI\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u51fa\u7522\u7684\u8f15\u8cea\u4f4e\u786b\u539f\u6cb9\uff08light, sweet 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Inflation Labor Market Tradeoffs<\/h3>\n<p>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u76ee\u524d\u5de6\u53f3\u70ba\u96e3\uff1a\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8da8\u52e2\u57282025\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u9010\u6b65\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u5373\u6263\u9664\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\uff09\u5e73\u5747\u4ecd\u90543.1%\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6bcf\u5468\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u7533\u8acb\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5347\u81f315\u500b\u6708\u9ad8\u4f4d245,000\u3002\u5169\u8005\u77db\u76fe\u4ee4\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u5411\u66f4\u96e3\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u62bc\u6ce8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u98a8\u96aa\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u51fa\u73fe\u8f03\u5927\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u570d\u7e5e\u4eca\u65e5\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u7f8e\u570bCPI\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u53d7\u60e0\u300c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u300d\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u80a1\u6307\u671f\u8ca8\u6216\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\uff08\u5982EUR\/USD\uff09\u505a\u300c\u9577\u8de8\u5f0f\u300d\uff08long straddle\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u53ca\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff0c\u8cfa\u53d6\u5927\u6ce2\u5e45\u800c\u4e0d\u9700\u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u6025\u8b8a\u6642\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u6bcb\u9808\u731c\u4e2d\u5347\u8dcc\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u53cd\u6620\u6216\u8f03\u65e9\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u9019\u60c5\u6cc1\u985e\u4f3c2024\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u7576\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u521d\u73fe\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u66fe\u9023\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u90e8\u7f72\u7f8e\u5143\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u5c0d\u8c61\u70ba\u7531\u8f03\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u5373\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u8f03\u91cd\u8996\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff09\u592e\u884c\u652f\u6301\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u6cb9\u5e02\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u8207\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u6216\u964d\u6eab\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u66ab\u6642\u9650\u5236WTI\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u5340\u5167\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u4ecd\u70ba\u6cb9\u50f9\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6490\u3002OPEC+\uff08OPEC\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\uff09\u4e0a\u6708\u7dad\u6301\u6e1b\u7522\uff0c\u4ee4\u652f\u6301\u529b\u5ea6\u66f4\u7a69\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u5340\u9593\u4e0a\u843d\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8ce3\u51fa\u300c\u50f9\u5916\u300d\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money 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