{"id":44526,"date":"2026-04-09T19:31:53","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T19:31:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44526\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T19:31:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T19:31:53","slug":"%e5%be%b7%e5%9c%8b%e5%95%86%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84antje-praefcke%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e7%91%9e%e5%85%b8%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%87%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e4%b8%8d%e8%ae%8a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44526\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884c\u7684Antje Praefcke\u9810\u671f\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u8f49\u5f31"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u745e\u51783\u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u521d\u503c\u5f31\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u3002\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\uff08Headline inflation\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u5347\u5e45\u964d\u81f31.6%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u76842.2%\uff1b\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\uff08Core inflation\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u9805\u76ee\u5982\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u98df\u54c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u53cd\u6620\u9577\u671f\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\uff09\u70ba1.1%\uff0c\u4ea6\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u76841.5%\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u504f\u8edf\u6578\u64da\u8207\u300c\u57fa\u6578\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08Base effects\uff0c\u5373\u53bb\u5e74\u6bd4\u8f03\u57fa\u6578\u9ad8\u4f4e\u4ee4\u6309\u5e74\u589e\u901f\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u6216\u58d3\u4f4e\uff09\u53ca\u745e\u5178\u514b\u6717\uff08krona\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u8ca8\u5e63SEK\uff09\u53bb\u5e74\u5347\u503c\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\uff08Riksbank\uff09\u73fe\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\u5df2\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u5169\u500b\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8dcc\u81f3\u660e\u986f\u4f4e\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u6c34\u5e73\u3002  <\/p>\n<h3>Inflation Outlook And Key Drivers<\/h3>\n<p>\u4e0b\u6708\u64ec\u8b70\u4e0b\u8abf\u589e\u503c\u7a05\uff08VAT\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7a05\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\uff09\u6216\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u58d3\u4f4e\u7269\u50f9\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u5c6c\u98a8\u96aa\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u57283\u6708\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u91cd\u7533\uff0c\u505c\u706b\u5f8c\u885d\u7a81\u5f62\u52e2\u4ecd\u5728\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u76e3\u5bdf\u76f8\u95dc\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u672a\u986f\u793a\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\u9700\u8981\u6539\u8b8a\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u5f62\u5bb9\u745e\u5178\u514b\u6717\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u5168\u7403\u98a8\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\uff08global risk sentiment\uff0c\u5373\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5c0d\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u504f\u597d\/\u907f\u96aa\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u8b8a\u5316\uff08interest rate expectations\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u4e26\u975e\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u52d5\u56e0\u7d20\u3002  <\/p>\n<h3>Implications For Rates And Volatility<\/h3>\n<p>\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08policy rate\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff09\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u7dad\u6301\u57283.75%\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u53cd\u6620\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u6211\u5011\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6578\u6389\u671f\uff08OIS\uff0cOvernight Index Swaps\uff1b\u4ee5\u9694\u591c\u5229\u7387\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u4f30\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u592e\u884c\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c6\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u52a0\u606f\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u5df2\u8d85\u904e60%\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u745e\u5178\u514b\u6717\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u4ee4\u671f\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\uff08options traders\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5916\u532f\u671f\u6b0a\u4ee5\u62bc\u6ce8\u65b9\u5411\u6216\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u9762\u5c0d\u8f03\u8907\u96dc\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u4e0a\u5347\u7406\u61c9\u6709\u5229\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u4f46\u514b\u6717\u4ecd\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u98a8\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u514b\u6717\uff08EUR\/SEK\uff0c\u5916\u532f\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7528\u591a\u5c11\u514b\u6717\u514c\u63db1\u6b50\u5143\uff09\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u5fb7\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u6578\u64da\u504f\u5f31\u5f8c\u51fa\u73fe\u514b\u6717\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u8d70\u52e2\u4ecd\u53d7\u6b50\u6d32\u6574\u9ad4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u727d\u52d5\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u672c\u5730\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u8207\u5916\u570d\u98a8\u96aa\u56e0\u7d20\u62c9\u626f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u90e8\u7f72\u4ee5\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u70ba\u4e3b\u984c\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u628a\u63e1EUR\/SEK\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5287\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u505a\u591a\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08long volatility\uff0c\u5373\u62bc\u6ce8\u50f9\u683c\u5c07\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u800c\u975e\u55ae\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u5305\u62ec\u8cb7\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u76f8\u540c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u53ca\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u6216\u5bec\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u76f8\u540c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u8f03\u9060\u884c\u4f7f\u50f9\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u8207\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff09\u3002\u9019\u985e\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728\u592e\u884c\u7acb\u5834\u504f\u9df9\uff08hawkish surprise\uff0c\u5373\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u5f15\u767c\u532f\u50f9\u6025\u5347\uff0c\u6216\u98a8\u96aa\u80c3\u7d0d\u7a81\u7136\u8f49\u5f31\u5c0e\u81f4\u532f\u50f9\u4e0b\u632b\u6642\uff0c\u722d\u53d6\u56de\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u901a\u8139\u964d\u6eab\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u7dca\u76ef\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884cAntje Praefcke\u6599\u7576\u5c40\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u95dc\u6ce8\u5f8c\u7e8c\u6307\u5f15\u8207\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\u8d70\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u901a\u8139\u964d\u6eab\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u7dca\u76ef\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884cAntje 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