{"id":44385,"date":"2026-04-08T06:32:22","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T06:32:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44385\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T06:32:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T06:32:22","slug":"%e4%ba%9e%e6%b4%b2%e6%99%82%e6%ae%b5%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e5%85%83%e5%85%8c%e7%b4%90%e5%85%83%e8%b7%8c%e8%bf%91-1-2150%ef%bc%8c%e6%ad%a4%e5%89%8d%e7%b4%90%e5%84%b2%e8%a1%8c%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%ae%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44385\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\uff0c\u6fb3\u5143\u514c\u7d10\u5143\u8dcc\u8fd1 1.2150\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u7d10\u5132\u884c\u7dad\u6301\u5b98\u65b9\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6fb3\u5143\u514c\u7d10\u5143\uff08AUD\/NZD\uff09\u5468\u4e09\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\u5728 1.2170 \u9644\u8fd1\u5f98\u5f8a\uff0c\u7d50\u675f\u81ea 3 \u6708 30 \u65e5\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u9023\u5347\u3002\u7d10\u897f\u862d\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08RBNZ\uff0c\u7d10\u897f\u862d\u592e\u884c\uff09\u5728 4 \u6708\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u628a\u5b98\u65b9\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Official Cash Rate\uff0cOCR\uff1b\u5373\u592e\u884c\u8a2d\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u9280\u884c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u53ca\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 2.25% \u4e0d\u8b8a\u5f8c\uff0c\u532f\u50f9\u8f15\u5fae\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u81f4\u5df2\u9810\u671f\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\uff0c\u7406\u7531\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u8207\u901a\u8139\uff08\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5e45\uff09\u524d\u666f\u4ecd\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u4ee4\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5176\u5f8c\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411 RBNZ \u884c\u9577 Anna Breman \u535a\u58eb\u5728\u6703\u5f8c\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u7684\u8b1b\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e9\u524d\u5347\u52e2\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\u56e0\u7d20<\/h3>\n

\u65e9\u524d\u4ea4\u53c9\u76e4\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u6fb3\u5143\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\u6539\u5584\u4e0b\u8d70\u5f37\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u66ab\u505c\u5c0d\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u5169\u5468\u3002\u65b9\u6848\u5305\u62ec\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u91cd\u958b\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff1b\u4e2d\u6771\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u822a\u9053\uff0c\u82e5\u53d7\u963b\u53ef\u63a8\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\uff09\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u300c\u96d9\u5411\u505c\u706b\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u505c\u706b\u6216\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u6fb3\u6d32\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08RBA\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff09\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u66fe\u62bc\u6ce8 5 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u5229\u7387\u6216\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f3 4.35%\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6d77\u5cfd\u95dc\u9589\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n

RBNZ \u6bcf\u5e74\u8209\u884c\u4e03\u6b21\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u6703\u6c7a\u5b9a OCR\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u6709\u5229\u7d10\u5143\u504f\u5f37\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u5247\u4ee4\u7d10\u5143\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u592e\u884c\u516c\u5e03\u5f8c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u6709\u6703\u5f8c\u7c21\u5831\u6216\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u63d0\u4f9b\u6307\u5f15\u3002<\/p>\n

\u622a\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff082026 \u5e74 4 \u6708 8 \u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230 AUD\/NZD \u5728\u8f03\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73 1.0950 \u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6295\uff0c\u8f03 2025 \u5e74\u540c\u671f 1.2170 \u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u660e\u986f\u56de\u843d\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u5f37\u52e2\u90e8\u5206\u7531\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e36\u52d5\uff0c\u800c\u76f8\u95dc\u56e0\u7d20\u5176\u5f8c\u5df2\u6d88\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u7126\u9ede<\/h3>\n

\u73fe\u6642\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5169\u570b\u901a\u8139\u524d\u666f\u51fa\u73fe\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u6fb3\u6d32 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5b63\u5ea6\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.8%\uff1b\u7d10\u897f\u862d\u5247\u964d\u81f3 3.1%\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473 RBA \u8f03\u6709\u7406\u7531\u7dad\u6301\u300c\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u300d\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff08hawkish\uff1b\u5373\u50be\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u58d3\u901a\u8139\uff09\uff0c\u800c RBNZ \u7acb\u5834\u76f8\u5c0d\u672a\u5fc5\u540c\u6a23\u5f37\u786c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u540c\u65bc 2025 \u5e74\u7f8e\u4f0a\u505c\u706b\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u77ed\u66ab\u7d13\u7de9\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u53d7 OPEC+\uff08\u77f3\u6cb9\u8f38\u51fa\u570b\u7d44\u7e54\u53ca\u76df\u53cb\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u6e1b\u7522\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6e1b\u7522\u70ba\u6cb9\u50f9\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e95\u90e8\uff0c\u4e26\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9ad8\u6fb3\u6d32\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\uff08sticky inflation\uff1b\u5373\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u8f03\u6162\uff09\uff0c\u4ee4 RBA \u8f03\u96e3\u8003\u616e\u653e\u5bec\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u5206\u6b67\u4e0b\uff0c\u5169\u570b\u5229\u5dee\uff08interest rate differential\uff1b\u5373\u5169\u5730\u5229\u7387\u5dee\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u53ca\u532f\u50f9\uff09\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u6216\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u6fb3\u5143\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165 AUD\/NZD \u770b\u6f32\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff1b\u5373\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u62bc\u6ce8\u532f\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u53ef\u9078 2026 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u6216 7 \u6708\u3002\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u5728\u628a\u63e1\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u9593\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6e05\u6670\u754c\u5b9a\u6700\u5927\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u901a\u5e38\u70ba\u5df2\u4ed8\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u5e45\uff08implied volatility\uff1b\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u73fe\u8655\u4e2d\u7b49\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u671f\u6b0a\u91d1\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u6602\u8cb4\uff0c\u5165\u5834\u6210\u672c\u76f8\u5c0d\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u9069\u5408\u5728\u5169\u9593\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f91\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u5206\u5316\u524d\u5efa\u7acb\u504f\u9577\u5009\u4f4d\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4ea6\u53ef\u628a\u5009\u4f4d\u8a2d\u8a08\u70ba\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u532f\u50f9\u9010\u6b65\u4e0a\u884c\uff08gradual grind higher\uff1b\u5373\u7de9\u6162\u4f46\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u671f\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u95dc\u6ce8\u6fb3\u6d32\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u8139\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u6578\u64da\u53ca RBA \u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u4ee5\u78ba\u8a8d\u5176\u504f\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u7684\u53d6\u614b\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u986f\u793a\u6fb3\u6d32\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5747\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u63a8\u52d5 AUD\/NZD \u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u5291\uff0c\u4ea6\u5c07\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5468\u8abf\u6574\u5009\u4f4d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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