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TD Securities \u7684\u5168\u7403\u7b56\u7565\u5718\u968a\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\uff08RBNZ\uff09\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5b98\u65b9\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Official Cash Rate\uff0cOCR\uff1b\u5373\u592e\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u3001\u7528\u4ee5\u5f71\u97ff\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u62c6\u606f\u53ca\u6574\u9ad4\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff09\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8a72\u5718\u968a\u9810\u6599\uff0cRBNZ \u7684\u6e9d\u901a\u91cd\u9ede\u6703\u653e\u5728\u300c\u8010\u5fc3\u300d\u61c9\u5c0d\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\uff08supply shocks\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u904b\u8f38\u6216\u9032\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u7a81\u7136\u4e0a\u5347\u5c0e\u81f4\u7269\u50f9\u77ed\u671f\u62bd\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u76ee\u524d\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5728\u7522\u80fd\u4e0d\u8db3\uff08below capacity\uff1b\u5373\u5be6\u969b\u7522\u51fa\u4f4e\u65bc\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u72c0\u614b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8a72\u5718\u968a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\uff08pricing in\uff1b\u5373\u5f9e\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u3001\u6389\u671f\u7b49\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\uff092026 \u5e74\u903e 75 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bps\uff1b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u7b49\u65bc 0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002\u5b83\u5f62\u5bb9\u9019\u7a2e\u5b9a\u50f9\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e26\u8a08\u5283\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\uff08Minutes\uff1b\u5373\u592e\u884c\u6703\u8b70\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u6458\u8981\uff09\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u4efb\u4f55\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u65e9\u6536\u7dca\u653f\u7b56\uff08earlier tightening\uff1b\u5373\u66f4\u65e9\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u8f49\u5411\u66f4\u504f\u7dca\u7684\u5229\u7387\u53d6\u5411\uff09\u7684\u7dda\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65b0\u897f\u862d\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u524d\u666f<\/h3>\n

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\u592e\u884c\u504f\u5be9\u614e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u56e0\u8fd1\u671f\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u7d93\u6fdf\u75b2\u5f31\u30022025 \u5e74\u5e95\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff1b\u5373\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u5167\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e3d\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u8f49\u70ba\u8f15\u5fae\u8ca0\u589e\u9577 -0.1%\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\uff08unemployment rate\uff1b\u5373\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u6c92\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e26\u6b63\u5728\u6c42\u8077\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u5347\u81f3 4.8%\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\uff08sticky inflation\uff1b\u6307\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\u3001\u8f03\u96e3\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u81f3 3.1%\uff0cRBNZ \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6216\u66f4\u91cd\u8996\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u58d3\u4f4e\u9019\u90e8\u5206\u901a\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\uff08derivative traders\uff1b\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\u7b49\u5408\u7d04\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u63a8\u7b97\u6c34\u5e73\u30022025 \u5e74\u4ea6\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u4e00\u5ea6\u8d70\u5728\u592e\u884c\u884c\u52d5\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0d\u6703\u6025\u901f\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u53cd\u800c\u53d7\u60e0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\uff08interest rate swaps\uff1b\u96d9\u65b9\u4ea4\u63db\u5229\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u5e38\u898b\u70ba\u300c\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u5c0d\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff09\u4e2d\u300c\u6536\u56fa\u5b9a\u300d\uff08receiving fixed\uff1b\u5373\u6536\u53d6\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u606f\u3001\u652f\u4ed8\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9810\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u6216\u4e0d\u5347\u6642\u8f03\u6709\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u5c6c\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u9078\u9805\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u9304\u91cd\u9ede<\/h3>\n

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