{"id":44327,"date":"2026-04-07T22:43:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T22:43:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44327\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T22:43:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T22:43:08","slug":"%e4%b8%89%e8%8f%b1%e6%97%a5%e8%81%af%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%ef%bc%88mufg%ef%bc%89derek-halpenny%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e6%9d%b1%e7%b7%8a%e5%bc%b5%e5%b1%80%e5%8b%a2%e6%8e%a8%e9%ab%98%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e9%80%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44327\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e09\u83f1\u65e5\u806f\u91d1\u878d\uff08MUFG\uff09Derek Halpenny\uff1a\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u63a8\u53473\u6708CPI\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u6307\u6a19\u8f49\u5f31"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u53d7\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ca\u6c7d\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u9810\u6599\u6703\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\uff1b3\u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff0c\u5373\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5831\u544a\u5c07\u65bc\u5468\u4e94\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u64da\u5831\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u822a\u9053\uff09\u901a\u884c\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u6216\u9650\u5236\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u4e26\u8207\u300c\u9006\u50f9\u5dee\u300d\uff08backwardation\uff1a\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd1\u6708\u5408\u7d04\u50f9\u683c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9060\u6708\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53cd\u6620\u73fe\u8ca8\u4f9b\u61c9\u504f\u7dca\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u9700\u6c42\u8f03\u5f37\uff09\u6709\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6574\u9ad4CPI\u6309\u6708\uff08month-on-month\uff0c\u5373\u8207\u4e0a\u6708\u6bd4\u8f03\uff09\u9810\u6599\u75312\u6708\u76840.3%\u5347\u81f33\u6708\u76841.0%\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u81ea2022\u5e746\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u55ae\u6708\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5165\u4fb5\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5f8c\u4e0d\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u8207\u71c3\u6cb9\u7684\u901a\u8139\u8a0a\u865f<\/h3>\n<p>ISM\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u300c\u50f9\u683c\u652f\u4ed8\u300d\u6307\u6578\uff08Prices Paid\uff1a\u4f01\u696d\u56de\u5831\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\uff0f\u63a1\u8cfc\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u89c0\u5bdf\u6210\u672c\u58d3\u529b\uff09\u75312\u6708\u768463.0\u5347\u81f33\u6708\u768470.7\uff0c\u70ba2022\u5e7410\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\uff1b\u55ae\u6708\u5347\u5e45\u4ea6\u662f\u81ea2012\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>AAA\u6bcf\u65e5\u6c7d\u6cb9\u96f6\u552e\u50f9\uff08\u6bcf\u52a0\u4f96\uff093\u6708\u6025\u534736.2%\uff0c\u4e26\u57284\u6708\u622a\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u6bcf\u65e5\u4e0a\u5347\u3002ISM\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\uff08\u53cd\u6620\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u589e\u8058\u6216\u88c1\u54e1\u50be\u5411\uff09\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5c31\u696d\u8f49\u5f31\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8a0a\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8ca0\u8cac\u5236\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff093\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u8981\u5c07\u65bc\u5468\u4e09\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u6216\u53cd\u6620\u5c0d\u653f\u7b56\u524d\u666f\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u9ede\u9663\u5716\u300d\uff08dot plot\uff1a\u59d4\u54e1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c2026\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u70ba3.375%\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u4eca\u5e74\u6216\u53ea\u6e1b\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4e26\u5047\u8a2d\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u518d\u73fe\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5WTI\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u5347\u7a7f\u6bcf\u687695\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u70ba\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u80fd\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u60c5\u6cc1\u985e\u4f3c2025\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u7684\u6cb9\u50f9\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6c7a\u7b56\u66f4\u68d8\u624b\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u4e4b\u8655\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u8f03\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u5ffd\u7565\u7531\u80fd\u6e90\u63a8\u52d5\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u6025\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u5e02\u5834\u90e8\u7f72\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n<p>2025\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4CPI\u6309\u6708\u66fe\u56e0\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6025\u5347\u800c\u5927\u5e45\u8df3\u5347\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u7f8e\u570b\u80fd\u6e90\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7f72\uff08EIA\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u80fd\u6e90\u6578\u64da\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5168\u570b\u6c7d\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u8fd1\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u7d2f\u5347\u8fd115%\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u90543.95\u7f8e\u5143\uff0f\u52a0\u4f96\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u61c9\u9810\u671f\u672c\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u76842026\u5e743\u6708CPI\u6703\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u900f\u904e\u901a\u8139\u6389\u671f\uff08inflation swaps\uff1a\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u901a\u8139\u7387\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u901a\u8139\u639b\u920e\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u4e92\u63db\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u901a\u8139\uff09\u6216\u5c0dTIPS ETF\u7684\u671f\u6b0a\uff08TIPS\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u4fdd\u503c\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u672c\u91d1\u96a8\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\uff1bETF\u70ba\u8ffd\u8e64\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8cb7\u8ce3\u57fa\u91d1\uff1b\u671f\u6b0a\u70ba\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4ee5\u628a\u63e1\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u518d\u5ea6\u9677\u5165\u5169\u96e3\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u653e\u7de9\u8de1\u8c61\u3002\u96a8\u7740\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8b70\u606f\u81e8\u8fd1\uff0c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\uff1bVIX\u6307\u6578\uff08\u53cd\u6620\u6a19\u666e500\u671f\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u3001\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578\u300d\uff09\u8fd1\u671f\u4eca\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u5347\u7a7f18\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff08SPX\uff09\u671f\u6b0a\u6216VIX\u671f\u8ca8\u671f\u6b0a\u4f5c\u98a8\u96aa\u5c0d\u6c96\uff0c\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u5e02\u6ce2\u5e45\u64f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6eef\u8139\uff08stagflation\uff1a\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\u540c\u6642\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\uff09\u98a8\u96aa\u8f03\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u3002\u6700\u65b0ISM\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u6307\u6578\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u6536\u7e2e\u5340\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u4f4e\u65bc50\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u82072025\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u7684\u8f49\u5f31\u8a0a\u865f\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u4ee5\u6307\u6578\u8a8d\u6cbd\u671f\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff1a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u4f5c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c0d\u6c96\uff09\u4f5c\u4e0b\u884c\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u7559\u610f\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584aETF\u7684\u8a8d\u8cfc\u671f\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff1a\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u5347\u6eab\u63a8\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\uff0cMUFG Halpenny\u8b66\u544a\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u518d\u71c3\uff0c3\u6708CPI\u6216\u4e0a\u884c\uff1b\u60df\u5c31\u696d\u6307\u6a19\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6e1b\u606f\u8def\u5f91\u66f4\u6dfb\u8b8a\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44327\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}