{"id":44303,"date":"2026-04-07T19:28:41","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T19:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44303\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T19:28:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T19:28:41","slug":"%e5%8c%97%e6%ad%90%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%b8%ab%e6%96%99%e6%ad%90%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%87%e6%8f%90%e5%89%8d%e5%8a%a0%e5%bf%ab%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af%e6%ad%a5%e4%bc%90%ef%bc%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44303\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5317\u6b50\u9280\u884c\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u6599\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u63d0\u524d\u52a0\u5feb\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u512a\u5148\u904f\u6291\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u56e0\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u63a8\u5347\u50f9\u683c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nordea \u5206\u6790\u5e2b Jan von Gerich\u3001Tuuli Koivu \u53ca Anders Svendsen \u9810\u671f\uff0c\u82e5\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u6301\u7e8c\u4e26\u63a8\u9ad8\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u5c07\u66f4\u8457\u91cd\u901a\u8139\uff08\u7269\u50f9\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u800c\u975e\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6e2c\u81ea 6 \u6708\u8d77\u52a0\u606f\u56db\u6b21\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff080.25 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u3002\u6309\u6b64\u63a8\u7b97\uff0cECB \u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\uff08deposit rate\uff1a\u9280\u884c\u628a\u8cc7\u91d1\u5b58\u653e\u5728\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u7372\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u5c07\u65bc 10 \u6708\u5347\u81f3 3%\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Deposit Rate Outlook Through 2027<\/h3>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3% \u76f4\u81f3 2027 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u51fa\u98a8\u96aa\u5728\u65bc\u52a0\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u65e9\u958b\u59cb\u6216\u5e45\u5ea6\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u4ea6\u63d0\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u689d\u8def\u5f91\uff1aECB \u6216\u6703\u5728 4 \u6708\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u540c\u6642\u8003\u616e 6 \u6708\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u65bc 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4ee5 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u70ba\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8d77\u6b65\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5011\u628a\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u6642\u9593\u8207\u885d\u7a81\u53ca\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u639b\u920e\uff1b\u800c\u5176\u5f8c\u52a0\u606f\u6b21\u6578\u8207\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u5247\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u66f4\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u53ca\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u884c\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u4f5c\u51fa\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Market Pricing Versus ECB Reality<\/h3>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u6b50\u5143\u5340 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63 GDP\uff08\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e3d\u7522\u51fa\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u589e\u9577\u63a5\u8fd1\u505c\u6eef\uff1b\u5fb7\u570b\u6700\u65b0 PMI\uff08\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff1a\u4ee5\u8abf\u67e5\u53cd\u6620\u4f01\u696d\u666f\u6c23\uff0c\u901a\u5e38 50 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u4ee3\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4ee3\u8868\u6536\u7e2e\uff09\u8dcc\u81f3 48.5 \u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6536\u7e2e\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u589e\u9577\u653e\u6162\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\uff08core inflation\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u9577\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4f01\u65bc 3.6%\uff0c\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc ECB 2% \u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee4\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u9858\u91cb\u653e\u6e1b\u606f\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u901a\u8139\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\uff08futures market\uff1a\u4ee5\u5408\u7d04\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u73fe\u6642\u62bc\u6ce8\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u81f3\u5c11\u6e1b\u606f\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u73fe\u6709\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u4e0b\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u9810\u671f\u504f\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u90e8\u7f72\u5b73\u606f\u7387\uff08yield\uff1a\u50b5\u5238\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u8207\u50b5\u50f9\u53cd\u5411\uff09\u300c\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7dad\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5229\u7528\u671f\u6b0a\uff08options\uff1a\u652f\u4ed8\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u5f8c\u53d6\u5f97\u8cb7\u5165\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u6b0a\u5229\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u62bc\u6ce8\u5fb7\u570b 2 \u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0d\u6703\u6025\u8dcc\u3002\u53d7\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u5f71\u97ff\uff0cEURIBOR\uff08\u6b50\u5143\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u62c6\u606f\uff1a\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u671f\u6b0a\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u7531\u671f\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5347\u81f3\u81ea 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u628a\u63e1\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u843d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u6216\u8f03\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6389\u671f\u5e02\u5834\uff08swaps market\uff1a\u4ee5\u4e92\u63db\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u8207\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u4f5c\u5c0d\u6c96\u6216\u6295\u6a5f\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u8207\u592e\u884c\u53d6\u614b\u7684\u843d\u5dee\u5e36\u4f86\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u82e5 ECB \u5728 2026 \u5e74\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u3001\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u504f\u9d3f\uff08dovish\uff1a\u50be\u5411\u5bec\u9b06\u3001\u652f\u6301\u6e1b\u606f\uff09\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u65bc 2 \u5e74\u6216 3 \u5e74\u5229\u7387\u6389\u671f\u300c\u6536\u56fa\u5b9a\u300d\uff08receiving fixed\uff1a\u5728\u6389\u671f\u4e2d\u6536\u53d6\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u3001\u652f\u4ed8\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8f03\u6709\u5229\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u6b64\u5009\u4f4d\u7b49\u540c\u62bc\u6ce8\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u7d93\u6fdf\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u901a\u8139\u9ecf\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u8feb\u4f7f ECB 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