{"id":44150,"date":"2026-04-06T14:16:57","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T14:16:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/44150\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T14:16:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T14:16:57","slug":"%e6%b3%95%e5%9c%8b%e8%88%88%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%ad%90%e5%85%83%e5%8d%80%e9%9d%a2%e5%b0%8d%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e8%a1%9d%e6%93%8a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/44150\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u9762\u5c0d\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u66f4\u5177\u97cc\u6027\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u8207\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5ea6\u8f03\u4f4e"},"content":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\uff08Societe Generale\uff09\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u6b63\u9762\u5c0d\u65b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u4f46\u6bd4\u904e\u53bb\u66f4\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u77f3\u6cb9\u8207\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u55ae\u4f4d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6cb9\u6c23\u7528\u91cf\uff09\u5df2\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u7528 NiGEM \u6a21\u578b\uff08\u7528\u4f86\u6a21\u64ec\u5404\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e92\u52d5\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u63a8\u7b97\uff0c\u5728\u57fa\u6e96\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6703\u8b93\u6b50\u5143\u5340 GDP\uff08\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\uff09\u5c11\u7d04 0.2\u20130.3 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff08pp\uff0cpercentage point\uff0c\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u504f\u5f31\u7684\u6642\u671f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5fa9\u7526\u6703\u8f49\u5f37\uff0c\u52d5\u80fd\u4f86\u81ea\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u3001\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u3001\u8207 AI\uff08\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\uff09\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u623f\u5e02\u56de\u6eab\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6e2c\u5728\u9810\u6e2c\u671f\u9593\uff0cGDP \u6210\u9577\u7387\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u6f5b\u5728\u6210\u9577\uff08\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u4e0d\u5f15\u767c\u660e\u986f\u901a\u81a8\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u7684\u9577\u671f\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6210\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>\u8ca1\u653f\u5c55\u671b\u8207\u8d64\u5b57<\/h3>\n\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u4f30\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u516c\u5171\u8d64\u5b57\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u6e1b\u6536\u5165\u7684\u7f3a\u53e3\uff09\u5c07\u5f9e 2024 \u5e74\u5360 GDP \u7684 3.1%\uff0c\u4e0a\u5347\u5230 2025 \u8207 2026 \u5e74\u7d04 3.4%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u8ca1\u653f\u7acb\u5834\u504f\u5bec\u9b06\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\u900f\u904e\u589e\u52a0\u652f\u51fa\u6216\u6e1b\u7a05\u4f86\u652f\u6490\u666f\u6c23\uff09\u3002\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u5171\u8d64\u5b57\u9810\u6e2c\u5c07\u5f9e 2025 \u5e74\u5360 GDP \u7684 2.4%\uff0c\u5347\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u7684 4.3%\uff1b\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u52d5\u7528\u8ca1\u653f\u7a7a\u9593\uff08\u5728\u4e0d\u660e\u986f\u60e1\u5316\u8ca1\u653f\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0b\u4ecd\u53ef\u64f4\u5f35\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u9918\u88d5\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u5011\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u81a8\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u80fd\u6e90\u8207\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u9805\u76ee\uff09\u9810\u8a08\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u7d04 2%\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u9810\u671f\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u6703\u7acb\u523b\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6e2c ECB \u6703\u5728 2026 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u8207 2027 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u5404\u5347\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08bp\uff0cbasis point\uff0c\u57fa\u9ede\uff1b25bp = 0.25 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5b58\u5728\u63d0\u524d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u65e9\u5230 6 \u6708\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; 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