{"id":43993,"date":"2026-04-02T06:54:56","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T06:54:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43993\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T06:54:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T06:54:56","slug":"%e6%8e%a5%e8%bf%91-1-1590%ef%bc%8ceur-usd-%e4%bb%8d%e7%95%a5%e4%bd%8e%e6%96%bc-1-1600%ef%bc%8c%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e5%93%a1%e7%ad%89%e5%be%85%e5%b7%9d%e6%99%ae%e5%b0%b1%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e7%99%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43993\/","title":{"rendered":"\u63a5\u8fd1 1.1590\uff0cEUR\/USD \u4ecd\u7565\u4f4e\u65bc 1.1600\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7b49\u5f85\u5ddd\u666e\u5c31\u4f0a\u6717\u767c\u8868\u8ac7\u8a71\u53ca\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u6578\u64da"},"content":{"rendered":"\u9031\u56db\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\u65e9\u76e4\uff0cEUR\/USD \u5728 1.1590 \u9644\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc 1.1600\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5510\u7d0d\u00b7\u5ddd\u666e\uff08Donald Trump\uff09\u5c07\u65bc\u683c\u6797\u5a01\u6cbb\u6642\u9593 01:00 \u767c\u8868\u3001\u5167\u5bb9\u95dc\u65bc\u4f0a\u6717\u6230\u722d\uff08\u4f0a\u6717\u76f8\u95dc\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\uff09\u7684\u6f14\u8aaa\u524d\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u504f\u4fdd\u5b88\u3002\n\n\u9019\u5834\u8ac7\u8a71\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u6700\u65b0\u8aaa\u660e\u300d\uff08update\uff09\uff0c\u767c\u751f\u5728 2 \u6708\u5e95\u9996\u6b21\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u5c0d\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u806f\u5408\u653b\u64ca\uff08\u5169\u570b\u4e00\u8d77\u767c\u52d5\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6253\u64ca\uff09\u4e4b\u5f8c\u3002\u4e00\u540d\u767d\u5bae\u5b98\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\u9810\u8a08\u6703\u63d0\u5230\u7f8e\u8ecd\u884c\u52d5\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e26\u91cd\u7533\u4ee5 2 \u5230 3 \u9031\u4f5c\u70ba\u7d50\u675f\u9019\u6b21\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8868\u3002\n\n<h3>\u91cd\u8981\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\u8207\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7126\u9ede<\/h3>\n\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\u4e5f\u53d7\u95dc\u6ce8\uff0c\u9031\u56db\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u6bcf\u9031\u300c\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8acb\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u4eba\u6578\u300d\uff08Initial Jobless Claims\uff1a\u65b0\u7533\u8acb\u5931\u696d\u88dc\u52a9\u7684\u4eba\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u89c0\u5bdf\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u8f49\u5f31\uff09\u3002\u9031\u4e94\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7f8e\u570b\u300c\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u300d\uff08Nonfarm Payrolls\uff1a\u4e0d\u542b\u8fb2\u696d\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\uff0c\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u6307\u6a19\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u6b50\u6d32\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff08European Central Bank\uff0cECB\uff1b\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u592e\u884c\uff09\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u300c\u5347\u606f\u300d\uff08tighter policy\uff1a\u628a\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\uff0c\u8b93\u8cc7\u91d1\u66f4\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u501f\u5230\u3001\u7528\u4f86\u58d3\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u3002\u8def\u900f\u793e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7d66\u51fa\u5230 2026 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u5347\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis point\uff0cbp\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede=0.01%\uff0c25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede=0.25%\uff09\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba 76%\u3002\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\uff08J.P. Morgan\uff09\u8207\u5df4\u514b\u840a\uff08Barclays\uff09\u4e5f\u66f4\u65b0\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u628a\u4eca\u5e74\u6700\u591a\u5347\u606f 3 \u6b21\u7d0d\u5165\u5047\u8a2d\u3002\n\n\u56de\u9867\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\uff0cEUR\/USD \u4e00\u76f4\u5728 1.1600 \u4e0b\u65b9\u504f\u8b39\u614e\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u7f8e\u4f0a\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u7b49\u5f85\u5ddd\u666e\u6f14\u8aaa\u8207\u95dc\u9375\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u300c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u90e8\u4f4d\u300d\uff08derivative positions\uff1a\u4f8b\u5982\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\u7b49\u4ee5\u6a19\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u6301\u5009\uff09\u504f\u5411\u4fdd\u5b88\u9632\u5b88\u3002\n\n\u5c31\u50cf 2026 \u5e74\u521d\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u7f8e\u4f0a\u885d\u7a81\u7de9\u548c\uff08\u4f9d\u7167\u90a3\u5834\u6f14\u8aaa\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8868\uff09\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u300c\u907f\u96aa\u9700\u6c42\u300d\uff08safe-haven demand\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u76f8\u5c0d\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002\u9019\u8b93 EUR\/USD \u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u6e2c\u8a66\u66f4\u9ad8\u50f9\u4f4d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52e2\u53c8\u88ab\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6301\u7e8c\u5f37\u52c1\u6240\u9650\u5236\u3002\n\n\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7684 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d 25 \u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u5171\u8b58\u9810\u4f30\u7684 19 \u842c\u4eba\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0cFed\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff09\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u91cb\u653e\u300c\u964d\u606f\u300d\uff08rate cuts\uff1a\u628a\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\uff0c\u8b93\u501f\u9322\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u3001\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u7b49\u65bc\u66ff\u7f8e\u5143\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6490\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u539f\u672c\u62bc\u6ce8\u7684\u300c\u504f\u597d\u98a8\u96aa\u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u300d\uff08risk-on, dollar-off\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u9858\u610f\u627f\u64d4\u98a8\u96aa\u6642\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\u3001\u8ce3\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u4ea4\u6613\u908f\u8f2f\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\n\n<h3>ECB \u524d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5f71\u97ff<\/h3>\n\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u7aef\uff0cECB \u7684\u8a0a\u865f\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u5340 3 \u6708\u901a\u81a8\uff08inflation\uff1a\u7269\u50f9\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 2.8%\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u6620\uff08fully priced in\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u5df2\u628a\u9019\u500b\u9810\u671f\u7b97\u9032\u53bb\uff09ECB \u5728 6 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u5347\u606f 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002\u5169\u5927\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5dee\u7570\uff08divergence\uff1a\u8d70\u5411\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u6210\u70ba\u9a45\u52d5\u6b64\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\n\n\u5728\u9019\u5169\u80a1\u76f8\u53cd\u529b\u91cf\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u3001\u63a5\u8fd1 6 \u6708 ECB \u6c7a\u8b70\u524d\uff0c\u63a1\u7528\u80fd\u53d7\u60e0\u65bc\u300c\u6ce2\u52d5\u8b8a\u5927\u300d\uff08volatility\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8d77\u4f0f\u52a0\u5287\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u50cf\u662f EUR\/USD \u7684\u300c\u8de8\u5f0f\u300d\uff08options straddle\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u8ced\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u3001\u4e0d\u8ced\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u6216\u300c\u52d2\u5f0f\u300d\uff08options strangle\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u8ced\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u3001\u901a\u5e38\u6210\u672c\u8f03\u4f4e\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e0d\u8ad6\u50f9\u683c\u5f80\u54ea\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u30026 \u6708\u5230\u671f\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u8d77\u4f0f\u3002\n\n\u4e5f\u61c9\u5bc6\u5207\u6ce8\u610f\u5169\u5bb6\u592e\u884c\u7684\u300c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u300d\uff08forward guidance\uff1a\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u53e3\u982d\u6307\u5f15\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u653f\u7b56\u5dee\u7570\u5c07\u88fd\u9020\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u82e5\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u610f\u5916\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08hawkish\uff1a\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u5347\u606f\u3001\u5c0d\u6297\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u6216 ECB \u610f\u5916\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u300c\u9d3f\u6d3e\u300d\uff08dovish\uff1a\u66f4\u50be\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u5bec\u9b06\u3001\u652f\u6301\u6210\u9577\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u76ee\u524d\u90e8\u4f4d\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u8f49\u3002\u73fe\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u91cd\u62bc\u55ae\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u66f4\u5408\u7406\u7684\u662f\u7528\u7b56\u7565\u53bb\u300c\u5c0d\u6c96\u300d\uff08hedging\uff1a\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u4f86\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u8d70\u52e2\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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