{"id":43866,"date":"2026-03-31T20:42:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T20:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43866\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T20:42:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T20:42:37","slug":"%e8%a5%bf%e6%96%b9%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%ef%bc%88occidental-petroleum%ef%bc%89%e8%82%a1%e5%83%b9%e8%bf%91%e6%97%a5%e5%9c%a8%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e4%ba%8b%e4%bb%b6%e6%8e%a8%e5%8b%95%e4%b8%8b%e8%b5%b0%e5%bc%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43866\/","title":{"rendered":"\u897f\u65b9\u77f3\u6cb9\uff08Occidental Petroleum\uff09\u80a1\u50f9\u8fd1\u65e5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u4ef6\u63a8\u52d5\u4e0b\u8d70\u5f37\uff0c\u827e\u7565\u7279\u6ce2\u6d6a\u5206\u6790\u986f\u793a\u6709\u671b\u4e0a\u6f32\u81f3 100 \u7f8e\u5143"},"content":{"rendered":"\u897f\u65b9\u77f3\u6cb9\uff08Occidental Petroleum\uff0cNYSE: OXY\uff09\u81ea 2022 \u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\u4e0b\u8dcc 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extension\uff0c\u7528\u524d\u4e00\u6bb5\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u63a8\u4f30\u4e0b\u4e00\u6bb5\u53ef\u80fd\u5230\u54ea\u88e1\u7684\u5e38\u898b\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u5728 77\u201387 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u82e5\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7834\u4e26\u7ad9\u7a69\u7b2c\uff08I\uff09\u6d6a\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u5c07\u78ba\u8a8d\u9031\u7dda\u5c64\u7d1a\u65b0\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u9806\u5e8f\uff08weekly upward sequence\uff0c\u6307\u4ee5\u9031\u7dda\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\u7d50\u69cb\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4e00\u65e6\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u6703\u4e0a\u79fb\u81f3 103\u2013119 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u300c\u7b49\u5e45\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u300d\uff08equal-legs zone\uff0c\u6307\u4e0b\u4e00\u6bb5\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u63a5\u8fd1\u524d\u4e00\u6bb5\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u3002\u5206\u6790\u4e5f\u63a8\u4f30\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5411\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\n\n\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u52d5\u80fd\u8207\uff08III\uff09\u6d6a\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c III \u6d6a\u555f\u52d5\u6709\u95dc\uff08wave III of (III)\uff0c\u6307\u66f4\u5927\u7d1a\u5225\uff08III\uff09\u6d6a\u88e1\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u6d6a\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u6700\u5f37\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\uff09\u3002\u9810\u671f\u8a72\u6d6a\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e0a\u6f32\u529b\u9053\u6703\u66f4\u5f37\u3002\n\n\u81ea 2025 \u5e74 4 \u6708 34.78 \u7f8e\u5143\u898b\u5e95\u5f8c\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u77f3\u6cb9\u7dad\u6301\u5f37\u52e2\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u80a1\u50f9\u6b63\u63a5\u8fd1\u521d\u59cb\u76ee\u6a19\u5340 77\u201387 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e0a\u7de3\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u9019\u4e00\u6ce2\u7b2c\u4e00\u6bb5\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u95dc\u5361\u3002\u9019\u6bb5\u8d70\u52e2\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230 WTI \u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u652f\u6490\uff08WTI crude\uff0c\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u662f\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\u683c\uff09\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u56e0\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u7591\u616e\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\n\n<h3>\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e09\u6d6a\u505a\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u5e03\u5c40<\/h3>\n\u5c0d\u64cd\u4f5c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivative\uff0c\u6307\u7531\u6a19\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u5982\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u539f\u6cb9\u300c\u884d\u751f\u300d\u51fa\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u7684\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u8868\u793a\u77ed\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u5148\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u518d\u8fce\u4f86\u4e0b\u4e00\u6bb5\u4e3b\u8981\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u8ce3\u51fa\u300c\u50f9\u5916\u300d\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money puts\uff0c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u4f4e\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u3001\u8f03\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u7acb\u523b\u88ab\u5c65\u7d04\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff09\u4e14\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7d04 75 \u6216 80 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u6642\u6536\u53d6\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff08premium\uff0c\u6307\u8cb7\u65b9\u652f\u4ed8\u7d66\u8ce3\u65b9\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\/\u8cbb\u7528\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe\u77ed\u7dda\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u9032\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u6642\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\n\n\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5728\u65bc\u5e03\u5c40\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u7b2c III \u6d6a\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u6307\u5411 103\u2013119 \u7f8e\u5143\u5340\u9593\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u8cb7\u9032\u5269\u9918\u671f\u9593\u7d04 3 \u5230 6 \u500b\u6708\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08duration\uff0c\u6307\u5230\u671f\u524d\u5269\u9918\u6642\u9593\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 2026 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u5230\u671f\u3001\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9 95 \u6216 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u662f\u638c\u63e1\u9810\u671f\u52a0\u901f\u884c\u60c5\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u8b93\u5b8c\u6574\u591a\u982d\u6ce2\u6bb5\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u300c\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\u6d41\u5931\u300d\uff08time decay\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u96e2\u5230\u671f\u8d8a\u8fd1\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\u901a\u5e38\u8d8a\u5feb\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u3002\n\n\u9019\u500b\u6280\u8853\u89c0\u9ede\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u516c\u53f8\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u8868\u73fe\u652f\u6490\uff1a\u897f\u65b9\u77f3\u6cb9\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u7b2c 4 \u5b63\u76c8\u9918\u512a\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4e26\u516c\u5e03\u8d85\u904e 21 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\uff08free cash flow\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u71df\u904b\u7522\u751f\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u6263\u9664\u5fc5\u8981\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u7528\u65bc\u9084\u50b5\u3001\u5206\u7d05\u6216\u56de\u8cfc\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\uff09\u3002\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7d04 35% \u7684\u300c\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u300d\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc 2022 \u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u98c6\u5347\u6642\u8d85\u904e 50% \u7684\u9ad8\u9ede\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u4ee5\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u4ecd\u7b97\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u8207\u8a72\u80a1\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u6f5b\u529b\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b97\u6602\u8cb4\u3002\n\n\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\uff0c\u95dc\u9375\u8a0a\u865f\u662f\u660e\u78ba\u7a81\u7834\u4e26\u5b88\u4f4f\u8fd1\u671f\u7b2c\uff08I\uff09\u6d6a\u9ad8\u9ede\uff08\u76ee\u524d\u63a5\u8fd1 87 \u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u78ba\u8a8d\u6709\u6548\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u5c07\u9a57\u8b49\u6574\u9ad4\u591a\u982d\u7d50\u69cb\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u65b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u8cb7\u76e4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u70ba\u6b64\u50f9\u4f4d\u8a2d\u5b9a\u63d0\u9192\uff08alerts\uff0c\u7528\u7cfb\u7d71\u901a\u77e5\u4f86\u638c\u63e1\u89f8\u50f9\uff09\u5c0d\u65bc\u6293\u9032\u5834\u6642\u9ede\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u5b89\u6392\u66f4\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u504f\u591a\u90e8\u4f4d\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p 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