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\u7684\u898f\u6a21\u8207\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u8b93\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9707\u76ea\u66f4\u5927\u3002\n\n\u95dc\u9375\u662f\u907f\u514d 2019 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u56de\u8cfc\u5e02\u5834\uff08repo market\uff1b\u4ee5\u50b5\u5238\u4f5c\u62b5\u62bc\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u501f\u8cb8\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u5229\u7387\u98c6\u5347\u91cd\u6f14\u3002\u7576\u6642\u9280\u884c\u6e96\u5099\u91d1\u904e\u5c11\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u8cc7\u91d1\u7dca\u5f35\u3002\u653e\u5bec\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9650\u5236\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u964d\u4f4e\u9019\u7a2e\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u65e6\u91cd\u555f QT\uff0c\u53c8\u6703\u628a\u6e96\u5099\u91d1\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5e36\u56de\u4f86\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u9280\u884c\u5728 Fed \u7684\u6e96\u5099\u91d1\u7d04 3.1 \u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u300c\u8db3\u5920\u591a\u300d\uff08ample\uff1b\u8db3\u4ee5\u8b93\u652f\u4ed8\u8207\u8cc7\u91d1\u5e02\u5834\u9806\u66a2\u904b\u4f5c\uff09\u7684\u4e0b\u9650\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u964d\u6703\u5f88\u654f\u611f\u3002\n\n\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u61c9\u5bc6\u5207\u89c0\u5bdf\u77ed\u671f\u8cc7\u91d1\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73fe\u58d3\u529b\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 SOFR\uff08Secured Overnight Financing Rate\uff1b\u4ee5\u516c\u50b5\u4f5c\u62b5\u62bc\u7684\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f5c\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u662f\u5426\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd1\u5e7e\u9031\u5df2\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230 SOFR \u5728\u6708\u5e95\u6642\u5076\u723e\u6bd4 Fed \u76ee\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u51fa 3 \u5230 4 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis point\uff0cbp\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede = 0.01%\uff09\u3002\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u8cc7\u91d1\u9b06\u7dca\u66f4\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u82e5 QT \u91cd\u555f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u64f4\u5927\u70ba\u66f4\u660e\u986f\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002\n\n\u76e3\u7ba1\u55ae\u4f4d\u60f3\u964d\u4f4e\u8cbc\u73fe\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u6c61\u540d\u5316\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u300c\u5b89\u5168\u95a5\u300d\uff08\u5728\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u53ef\u5feb\u901f\u4f9b\u61c9\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u5931\u63a7\uff09\u3002\u56de\u9867 2023 \u5e74\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u56e0\u4e0d\u9858\u7528\u8cbc\u73fe\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u624d\u4fc3\u6210 BTFP\uff08Bank Term Funding Program\uff1b\u9280\u884c\u5b9a\u671f\u878d\u8cc7\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u8b93\u9280\u884c\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u689d\u4ef6\u5411 Fed \u501f\u8f03\u9577\u5929\u671f\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u8a72\u8a08\u756b\u5df2\u65bc 2024 \u5e74\u5230\u671f\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u6210\u529f\u964d\u4f4e\u6c61\u540d\uff0c\u5c0d\u91d1\u878d\u985e ETF\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4ea4\u6613\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u7684\u300c\u6df1\u5ea6\u50f9\u5916\u8ce3\u6b0a\u300d\uff08deep out-of-the-money puts\uff1b\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u6975\u7aef\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4fdd\u96aa\uff09\u4f5c\u70ba\u9577\u671f\u907f\u96aa\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\n\n\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\uff0c\u8f03\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u504f\u5411\u300c\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u8b8a\u9661\u300d\uff08steeper yield curve\uff1b\u9577\u5929\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5e45\u5ea6\u5927\u65bc\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u5229\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba QT \u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u9577\u5929\u671f\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u800c Fed \u82e5\u7dad\u6301\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u77ed\u7aef\u76f8\u5c0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08options on Treasury 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