{"id":43804,"date":"2026-03-31T05:43:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T05:43:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43804\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T05:43:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T05:43:25","slug":"%e5%9c%a8%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%9c%83%e8%ad%b0%e7%b4%80%e8%a6%81%e6%9a%97%e7%a4%ba%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e9%80%b2%e4%b8%80%e6%ad%a5%e7%b7%8a%e7%b8%ae%e5%be%8c%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e5%85%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43804\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5728\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u8981\u6697\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7dca\u7e2e\u5f8c\uff0c\u6fb3\u5143\u8d70\u5f37\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5\u6fb3\u5143\uff0f\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\u903c\u8fd1 0.6860"},"content":{"rendered":"\u6fb3\u5143\uff0f\u7f8e\u5143\uff08AUD\/USD\uff09\u7d50\u675f\u9023\u8dcc\u4e94\u5929\uff0c\u9031\u4e8c\u4e9e\u6d32\u6642\u6bb5\u5728 0.6860 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\u6708\u7684 7.7% \u5c0f\u5e45\u5347\u81f3 7.8%\u3002\n\n\u8a72\u8ca8\u5e63\u5c0d\u4e5f\u56e0\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u800c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u9023\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f32\u4e94\u5929\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u82e5\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u60c5\u52e2\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff08safe-haven assets\uff1a\u52d5\u76ea\u6642\u8cc7\u91d1\u504f\u597d\u505c\u653e\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u65e5\u5713\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\uff09\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5c0d\u901a\u81a8\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7684\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u8f49\u5f37\u3002\n\n\u9031\u4e00\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u723e\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9577\u671f\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\uff08well anchored\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u76f8\u4fe1\u901a\u81a8\u53ef\u88ab\u63a7\u5236\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u653f\u7b56\u8b93\u5b98\u54e1\u80fd\u8a55\u4f30\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\uff08Iran conflict\uff09\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\n\n<h3>Policy Divergence And Trade Implications<\/h3>\n\u5982\u4eca\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0d\u540c\uff1aRBA \u904e\u53bb\u56db\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u628a\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08cash rate\uff1aRBA \u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 4.35%\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u5b63\u5ea6 CPI \u986f\u793a\u901a\u81a8\u5df2\u660e\u986f\u964d\u5230 3.1%\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5148\u524d\u8981\u6c42\u66f4\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u6e1b\u8f15\u3002\u7acb\u5834\u5f9e\u504f\u9df9\u8f49\u5411\u8f03\u4e2d\u6027\uff08neutral\uff1a\u4e0d\u6025\u8457\u5347\u606f\u6216\u964d\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u964d\u606f\u800c\u975e\u5347\u606f\uff0cAUD \u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\n\n\u76f8\u8f03\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u614b\u5ea6\u8f03\u5f37\u786c\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Fed Funds Rate\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\u9694\u591c\u62c6\u501f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 5.50%\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1 25 \u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\uff08core inflation\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u5f8c\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u4ecd\u504f\u9ecf\u8457\uff08sticky\uff1a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u964d\u4e0b\u4f86\uff09\u5728 2.8%\uff1b\u6700\u65b0\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\uff08non-farm payrolls\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u6bcf\u6708\u5c31\u696d\u65b0\u589e\u4eba\u6578\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0d\u542b\u8fb2\u696d\uff09\u589e\u52a0 21.5 \u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u6709\u97cc\u6027\uff08resilience\uff1a\u627f\u53d7\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u8868\u73fe\uff09\u3002\u9019\u8b93\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7f3a\u4e4f\u964d\u606f\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u8207 RBA \u7684\u8d70\u5411\u5f62\u6210\u660e\u986f\u5206\u6b67\u3002\n\n\u5169\u570b\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u9810\u671f\u5dee\u8ddd\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u5229\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5c0d\u6fb3\u5143\u8d70\u5f37\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u53ef\u8a55\u4f30\u504f\u5411 AUD\/USD \u8d70\u4f4e\u7684\u5e03\u5c40\u3002\u53ef\u7528\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff1a\u7531\u532f\u7387\u7b49\u6a19\u7684\u300c\u884d\u751f\u300d\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165 AUD\/USD \u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff1a\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u7a7a\u982d\u8ce3\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bear put spreads\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8f03\u9ad8\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8ce3\u6b0a\u3001\u8ce3\u51fa\u8f03\u4f4e\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u3001\u4f46\u4e5f\u9650\u5236\u6700\u5927\u7372\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0b\u53d6\u5f97\u4e0b\u8dcc\u90e8\u4f4d\u3002\n\n\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\uff08Commodity prices\uff1a\u539f\u7269\u6599\u50f9\u683c\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5f71\u97ff\u6fb3\u5143\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002WTI 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