{"id":43785,"date":"2026-03-31T01:43:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T01:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43785\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T01:43:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T01:43:00","slug":"aud-usd-%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8b%e8%b7%8c-0-42-%e5%be%8c%e6%8c%81%e7%a9%a9%e6%96%bc-0-6850-%e9%99%84%e8%bf%91%ef%bc%8c%e9%80%a3%e7%ba%8c%e4%ba%94%e6%97%a5%e4%b8%8b%e8%b7%8c%e4%b8%a6%e5%9b%9e%e8%90%bd-300","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43785\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD \u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.42% \u5f8c\u6301\u7a69\u65bc 0.6850 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u4e94\u65e5\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e26\u56de\u843d 300 \u9ede"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD \u9031\u4e00\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.42% \u81f3\u7d04 0.6850\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c 5 \u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u532f\u50f9\u8f03 3 \u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u63a5\u8fd1 0.7190 \u7684\u4eca\u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\u5df2\u56de\u843d\u8d85\u904e 300 \u9ede\uff08pip\uff0c\u5916\u532f\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u5831\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\u55ae\u4f4d\uff09\uff1b\u9031\u4e00\u5927\u81f4\u5728 0.6870\u20130.6830 \u5340\u9593\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\n\n\u6fb3\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08RBA\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5728 3 \u6708\u4ee5 5 \u7968\u5c0d 4 \u7968\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u5c07\u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08cash rate\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u4e0a\u8abf 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff0cbp\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede=0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff09\u81f3 4.10%\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c 2 \u6b21\u5347\u606f\u3002\u9031\u4e8c\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u8981\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u900f\u9732 5 \u6708\u662f\u5426\u6703\u8003\u616e\u7b2c 3 \u6b21\u5347\u606f\uff1b\u5148\u524d\u6709\u8a55\u8ad6\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\uff08\u4f9b\u7d66\u7a81\u7136\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u5e38\u6307\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u81a8\uff08\u7269\u50f9\u666e\u904d\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u8207\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\uff08\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u653f\u7b56\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u91cd\u8981\u6578\u64da<\/h3>\n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5728 3 \u6708\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u65bc 3.50% \u81f3 3.75%\u3002\u5176\u9ede\u9663\u5716\uff08dot plot\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5b98\u54e1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f91\u7684\u9810\u4f30\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u4ecd\u6307\u5411\u4eca\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u5373\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6578\u64da\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u9031\u4e09\u7684 ISM \u88fd\u9020\u696d PMI\uff08\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u8207\u9031\u4e94\u7684\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\uff08NFP\uff0cNon-Farm Payrolls\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u6bcf\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u4f30 NFP \u70ba 55K\uff08\u7d04 5.5 \u842c\u4eba\uff09\uff0c\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u70ba\u8ca0\u503c\uff1b\u800c\u8036\u7a4c\u53d7\u96e3\u65e5\uff08Good Friday\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff08liquidity\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u6210\u4ea4\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u8207\u8cb7\u8ce3\u76e4\u6df1\u5ea6\uff09\u8b8a\u8584\u3002\n\n\u5728 5 \u5206\u9418\u5716\u4e0a\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u7d04\u5728 0.6846\uff0c\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc 200 \u671f EMA\uff08\u6307\u6578\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u8f03\u91cd\u8996\u8fd1\u671f\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5747\u7dda\uff09\u7d04 0.6857\u3002\u963b\u529b\uff08resistance\uff0c\u4e0a\u65b9\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u9047\u5230\u8ce3\u58d3\u7684\u50f9\u4f4d\u5e36\uff09\u5728 0.6855\u20130.6860\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u662f 0.6875\u3002\u652f\u6490\uff08support\uff0c\u4e0b\u65b9\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73fe\u8cb7\u76e4\u7684\u50f9\u4f4d\uff09\u5728 0.6844\u30010.6835\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u662f 0.6825\u3002\n\n\u5728\u65e5\u7dda\u5716\u4e0a\uff0c\u532f\u50f9\u7d04\u5728 0.6848\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc 50 \u65e5 EMA\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u7d04 0.67 \u7684 200 \u65e5 EMA\u3002\u963b\u529b\u5728 0.6920\/0.6950\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u662f 0.7050 \u8207 0.7120\uff1b\u652f\u6490\u5728 0.6800\u30010.6750\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d04 0.6735\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5229\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\u8207\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u6b67<\/h3>\n\u76ee\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u843d\u5dee\u5df2\u660e\u986f\u64f4\u5927\uff1aRBA \u73fe\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5728 4.35%\uff0c\u800c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Fed funds rate\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\u9593\u9694\u591c\u62c6\u501f\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\uff09\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u70ba 5.25% \u81f3 5.50%\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u5229\u5dee\uff08interest rate differential\uff0c\u5169\u570b\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u8b93\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u6bd4\u6301\u6709\u6fb3\u5e63\u66f4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u5c0d AUD\/USD \u5f62\u6210\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u963b\u529b\uff08fundamental headwind\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry trade\uff0c\u501f\u5165\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8ca8\u5e63\u3001\u8cb7\u5165\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u8ca8\u5e63\u4ee5\u8cfa\u53d6\u5229\u5dee\uff09\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e3b\u984c\u3002\n\n\u9019\u4e5f\u8207 2026 \u5e74\u521d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6b67\u76f8\u547c\u61c9\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u65b0\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u65b0\u589e\u8d85\u904e 20 \u842c\u4eba\uff1b\u6fb3\u6d32\u5931\u696d\u7387\uff08unemployment rate\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u6bd4\u7387\uff09\u5247\u5347\u81f3 4.1%\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f03\u5177\u97cc\u6027\u3001\u6fb3\u6d32\u964d\u6eab\u7684\u5c0d\u6bd4\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u6fb3\u5e63\u504f\u5f31\u3002\n\n\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u6700\u5927\u8cbf\u6613\u5925\u4f34\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4ecd\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u8b8a\u6578\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u8fd1\u671f\u88fd\u9020\u696d PMI \u5f98\u5f8a\u5728 50 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