{"id":43781,"date":"2026-03-31T00:43:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T00:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43781\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T00:43:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T00:43:12","slug":"wti%e5%8e%9f%e6%b2%b9%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%9c%a8100%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e4%bb%a5%e4%b8%8a%ef%bc%8c%e5%b7%9d%e6%99%ae%e5%b0%8d%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e7%9a%84%e5%a8%81%e8%84%85%e6%8e%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43781\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI\u539f\u6cb9\u7dad\u6301\u5728100\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\u5c0d\u4f0a\u6717\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u63a8\u5347\u50f9\u683c\u5f8c\uff0c\u572898\u81f3101\u7f8e\u5143\u9593\u9707\u76ea"},"content":{"rendered":"\u9031\u4e00\uff0cWTI\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e00\u5ea6\u63a5\u8fd1 101 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\u6708\u521d\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u5c01\u9589\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08\u4f7f\u6b63\u5e38\u904b\u8f38\u91cf\u6bcf\u65e5\u6e1b\u5c11 1,780 \u842c\u6876\uff0c\u53e6\u6709\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5c0d\u5916\u8cc7\u71df\u904b\u6cb9\u7530\u5ba3\u5e03\u300c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6297\u529b\u300d\uff08force majeure\uff0c\u6307\u56e0\u6230\u722d\u7b49\u4e0d\u53ef\u63a7\u4e8b\u4ef6\u800c\u7121\u6cd5\u5c65\u7d04\uff09\u3002OPEC+\uff08\u77f3\u6cb9\u8f38\u51fa\u570b\u7d44\u7e54\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\uff09\u793a\u610f 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\uff08Q3\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\uff09\u524d\u4e0d\u589e\u7522\uff0c\u800c 4 \u5104\u6876\u7684\u7dca\u6025\u91cb\u653e\uff08emergency release\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u91cb\u51fa\u6230\u7565\u5132\u5099\u6cb9\u4ee5\u58d3\u4f4e\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u4ecd\u672a\u6d88\u9664\u4f9b\u61c9\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u570b\u80fd\u6e90\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7f72 EIA\uff08Energy Information Administration\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u80fd\u6e90\u6578\u64da\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u9810\u6e2c\uff1aBrent \u8fd1\u671f\u5728 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u82e5\u885d\u7a81\u7d50\u675f\u4e14\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u91cd\u958b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u7d04 80 \u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u5e74\u5e95\u7d04 70 \u7f8e\u5143\uff1bWTI \u5728 3 \u6708\u4e0a\u6f32\u7d04 48%\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703 Fed\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u65bc 3 \u6708 18 \u65e5\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.50%\u20133.75%\uff0c\u4e26\u6697\u793a 2026 \u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff1b\u800c CME FedWatch\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6a5f\u7387\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u986f\u793a 2026 \u5e74\u5176\u9918\u6642\u9593\u4e0d\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e14 4 \u6708\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba 80%\u3002\n\n\u5ddd\u666e\u5728\u5ef6\u9577 10 \u5929\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c07\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u91cd\u958b\u671f\u9650\u8a02\u5728 4 \u6708 6 \u65e5\u3002\u54c8\u683c\u5cf6\u8655\u7406\u7d04 90% \u7684\u4f0a\u6717\u77f3\u6cb9\u51fa\u53e3\uff1b\u9ad8\u76db\u8868\u793a\u82e5\u9577\u671f\u5c01\u9589\uff0cBrent \u53ef\u80fd\u6e2c\u8a66 2008 \u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\u9644\u8fd1\u7684 147 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u9031\u4e09\u7684 EIA \u5831\u544a\u5c07\u986f\u793a\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0b\u964d 120 \u842c\u6876\uff08draw\uff0c\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u4e00\u9031\u70ba\u589e\u52a0\uff08build\uff0c\u5eab\u5b58\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\n\nWTI \u539f\u6cb9\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6642\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8df3\u52d5\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u5f9e CBOE \u539f\u6cb9\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578 OVX\uff08Crude Oil Volatility Index\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u539f\u6cb9\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u770b\u51fa\uff1aOVX \u4e00\u76f4\u5728 55 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c6c\u6b77\u53f2\u504f\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u6975\u5ea6\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u6b0a\/\u671f\u8ca8\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\uff08option premium\uff0c\u8cb7\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8981\u4ed8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u975e\u5e38\u6602\u8cb4\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u8cb7\u9032\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u6216\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u6210\u672c\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\n\n\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u8207\u5fb7\u9ed1\u862d\u7684\u65b0\u805e\u98a8\u96aa\uff08headline risk\uff0c\u7a81\u767c\u6d88\u606f\u9020\u6210\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u8df3\u52d5\uff09\u4f7f\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u660e\u986f\u7684\u6b63\u504f\u614b\uff08positive skew\uff0c\u6307\u540c\u6a23\u8ddd\u96e2\u73fe\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u6bd4\u8ce3\u6b0a\u66f4\u8cb4\uff09\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u96e2\u73fe\u50f9\u4e00\u6bb5\u8ddd\u96e2\u6642\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u6015\u7a81\u7136\u66b4\u6f32\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5d29\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u8cb7\u6b0a\u66f4\u6602\u8cb4\u3002\u6211\u5011\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u985e\u4f3c\u504f\u614b\u662f\u5728 2022 \u5e74\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u885d\u7a81\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u7576\u6642 WTI \u4e4b\u5f8c\u885d\u5411 120 \u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\n\n<h3>\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u65b9\u5f0f<\/h3>\n\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u4f86\u7684 4 \u6708 6 \u65e5\u671f\u9650\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08binary event\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5927\u81f4\u53ea\u6709\u300c\u6210\/\u4e0d\u6210\u300d\u5169\u7a2e\uff0c\u6703\u8b93\u50f9\u683c\u5287\u70c8\u8df3\u52d5\uff09\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u601d\u8003\u5982\u4f55\u5e03\u5c40\u3002\u82e5\u5916\u4ea4\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e7e\u4e4e\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u9593\u62b9\u53bb\u6bcf\u6876 14 \u5230 18 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6230\u722d\u6ea2\u50f9\uff1b\u82e5\u653b\u64ca\u54c8\u683c\u5cf6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u52d5\u50f9\u683c\u671d 115 \u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u6602\u8cb4\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5782\u76f4\u50f9\u5dee\uff08vertical spreads\uff0c\u540c\u5230\u671f\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff09\u5982\u725b\u5e02\u8cb7\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bull call spread\uff09\u6216\u718a\u5e02\u8ce3\u6b0a\u50f9\u5dee\uff08bear put spread\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u8868\u9054\u65b9\u5411\u770b\u6cd5\u4e0b\uff0c\u628a\u98a8\u96aa\u9650\u5b9a\u4f4f\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u524d\u671f\u6210\u672c\u3002\n\n\u4f9b\u7d66\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5be6\u8cea\u5c01\u9589\u4f7f\u5927\u91cf\u539f\u6cb9\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u800c\u91cb\u653e\u6230\u7565\u5132\u5099\u4ecd\u7121\u6cd5\u88dc\u4e0a\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\u56de\u9867 2019 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\uff0c\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u8a2d\u65bd\u906d\u653b\u64ca\u5f8c\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u4f46\u8f03\u8f15\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u885d\u64ca\uff0cBrent \u55ae\u65e5\u8df3\u7a7a\uff08gap up\uff0c\u958b\u76e4\u76f4\u63a5\u5927\u5e45\u9ad8\u65bc\u524d\u6536\uff09\u8fd1 20%\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5e72\u64fe\u6642\u9593\u66f4\u9577\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u652f\u6490\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5f37\u52e2\u3002\n\n\u4e5f\u9700\u8003\u616e\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u80cc\u666f\uff08macro-economic backdrop\uff09\uff1a\u80fd\u6e90\u63a8\u5347\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff08energy-driven inflation\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u5e36\u52d5\u7269\u50f9\uff09\u4f7f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5e7e\u4e4e\u96e3\u4ee5\u63a1\u53d6\u5bec\u9b06\u3002CME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\u986f\u793a 2026 \u5e74\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\uff0c\u9ad8\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u6b63\u5f37\u5316\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u81a8\uff08stagflation\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u75b2\u5f31\u8207\u9ad8\u901a\u81a8\u540c\u6642\u767c\u751f\uff09\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0a\u6708\u75b2\u5f31\u7684 2 \u6708\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u50c5\u589e\u52a0 92,000 \u500b\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u51f8\u986f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u9b91\u723e\uff08Powell\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff09\u8a66\u5716\u62ff\u634f\u7684\u96e3\u984c\u3002\n\n\u5c31\u77ed\u7dda\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u7528\u95dc\u9375\u6280\u8853\u50f9\u4f4d\uff08technical 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