{"id":43765,"date":"2026-03-30T20:42:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:42:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43765\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T20:42:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:42:47","slug":"%e6%b3%95%e5%9c%8b%e8%88%88%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e9%a0%90%e6%9c%9f%e8%8b%b1%e5%9c%8b%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%9c%a82026%e5%b9%b4%e5%b0%87%e9%99%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43765\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u57282026\u5e74\u5c07\u964d\u606f70\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5b98\u54e1\u4ecd\u6301\u53cd\u5c0d\u7acb\u5834\uff1b\u4eca\u5e74\u9810\u8a08\u4e0d\u6703\u964d\u606f"},"content":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u53cd\u6620\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c\uff08BoE\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u964d\u606f\u7d04 70 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis points\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u55ae\u4f4d\uff1b1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff1d0.01 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff1d0.0001\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08MPC\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff09\u5167\u90e8\u6709\u4eba\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\uff08Societe Generale\uff09\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0d\u6703\u964d\u606f\u3002\n\n2 \u6708\u6574\u9ad4 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u70ba 3%\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u5f6d\u535a\uff08Bloomberg\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5e73\u53f0\uff09\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u9810\u4f30\u8207\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c 2 \u6708\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6578\u64da\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\uff08energy price shock\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u77ed\u671f\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff09\u4e4b\u524d\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\n\n<h3>\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u81a8\u5c55\u671b<\/h3>\n\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u71c3\u6599\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6703\u628a 3 \u6708\u6574\u9ad4 CPI \u63a8\u5347\u5230\u7d04 3.2%\uff08\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff0cyear on year\uff0c\u8207\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u76f8\u6bd4\uff09\u3002\u9019\u6bd4\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c 2 \u6708\u300a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5831\u544a\u300b\uff08MPR\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u5b9a\u671f\u8a55\u4f30\u5831\u544a\uff09\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u9ad8\u7d04 0.5 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002\n\n\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u524d\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3\u20133.5% \u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u5f8c\u7e8c\u52a0\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u9592\u7f6e\uff08economic slack\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u504f\u5f31\u3001\u7522\u80fd\u8207\u4eba\u529b\u672a\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u4f7f\u4f01\u696d\u96e3\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u552e\u50f9\u3002\n\n\u672c\u9031\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u9810\u8a08\u8f49\u5411\u6b21\u8981\u6578\u64da\uff08second-tier data\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u8f03\u4f4e\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\uff09\u30023 \u6708\u300c\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u5c0f\u7d44\u300d\uff08Decision Makers\u2019 Panel\uff0c\u5c0d\u4f01\u696d\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff09\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u6703\u63d0\u4f9b\u6279\u767c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u5c0d CPI \u8207\u85aa\u8cc7\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff08expectations\uff0c\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\u65e9\u671f\u8a0a\u865f\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; 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