{"id":43717,"date":"2026-03-30T08:43:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T08:43:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43717\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T08:43:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T08:43:03","slug":"%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e5%ae%88%e5%9c%a8-100-%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e4%bb%a5%e4%b8%8a%ef%bc%8c%e4%be%9b%e6%87%89%e9%a2%a8%e9%9a%aa%e5%8a%a0%e5%8a%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/analysis\/43717\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cb9\u50f9\u5b88\u5728 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u98a8\u96aa\u52a0\u5287"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2026\/03\/Oil3-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41758\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>WTI\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u7d1a\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u5347\u81f3 100.98 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff1bBrent\uff08\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u4e0a\u6f32 <strong>2.6% \u81f3\u6bcf\u6876 115.45 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brent \u672c\u6708\u5df2\u4e0a\u6f32\u8fd1 <strong>60%<\/strong>\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u4f9b\u7d66\u98a8\u96aa\u660e\u986f\u5347\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5e02\u5834\u95dc\u6ce8\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8f38\u6cb9\u7ba1\u7dda\u65e5\u8f38\u9001\u91cf<strong>600 \u842c\u6876<\/strong>\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6cb9\u50f9\u5728\u65e9\u76e4\u6301\u7e8c\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c<strong>WTI \u7dad\u6301\u5728 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5831 100.98 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff1bBrent \u4e0a\u6f32 <strong>2.6% \u81f3\u6bcf\u6876 115.45 \u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u6ce2\u4e0a\u6f32\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u6182\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u8449\u9580\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88dd\uff08Houthi rebels\uff0c\u8449\u9580\u7684\u6b66\u88dd\u7d44\u7e54\uff09\u4e5f\u52a0\u5165\u884c\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u4e0d\u518d\u53ea\u770b\u300c\u4f9b\u61c9\u4e2d\u65b7\u300d\uff0c\u4e5f\u958b\u59cb\u64d4\u5fc3\u300c\u66ff\u4ee3\u51fa\u53e3\u8def\u7dda\u300d\u662f\u5426\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u662f\u5426\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u653b\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5\u885d\u7a81\u7e7c\u7e8c\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u6216\u5f71\u97ff\u91cd\u8981\u8a2d\u65bd\uff08\u5982\u7ba1\u7dda\u3001\u6e2f\u53e3\uff09\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u6a94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8377\u83ab\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u95dc\u9589\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u6539\u8d70\u5176\u4ed6\u8def\u7dda<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8377\u83ab\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u9023\u63a5\u6ce2\u65af\u7063\u8207\u5916\u6d77\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u822a\u9053\uff09\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7121\u6cd5\u901a\u884c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7522\u6cb9\u570b\u6539\u7528\u5176\u4ed6\u8f38\u9001\u8def\u5f91\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6539\u7528\u6771\u897f\u5411\u8f38\u6cb9\u7ba1\u7dda\uff08east-west pipeline\uff0c\u5f9e\u6771\u5cb8\u6cb9\u7530\u901a\u5f80\u897f\u5cb8\u7d05\u6d77\u7684\u7ba1\u7dda\uff09\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u53ef\u904b\u8f38\u6700\u591a <strong>600 \u842c\u6876<\/strong>\u81f3\u7d05\u6d77\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Iran war has thrown conventional pricing for Saudi Arabian crude into disarray <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CGEwP7Z9BI\">https:\/\/t.co\/CGEwP7Z9BI<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2038517866199200060?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 30, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u689d\u8def\u7dda\u6210\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u66ff\u4ee3\u901a\u9053\uff0c\u53ef\u5206\u64d4\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u65b7\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u6539\u9053\u4e5f\u5e36\u4f86\u65b0\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u885d\u7a81\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u8a2d\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u653b\u64ca\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82e5\u7ba1\u7dda\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u5ea6\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u885d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u52a0\u6df1\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\uff08geopolitical\uff0c\u6307\u570b\u5bb6\u8207\u5730\u5340\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u8207\u5229\u76ca\u885d\u7a81\uff09\u7dca\u5f35\u5347\u6eab\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5831\u5c0e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b63\u8003\u616e\u9032\u884c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f9e\u4f0a\u6717\u53d6\u51fa\u8fd1 <strong>1,000 \u78c5\u7684\u923e<\/strong>\u3002\u923e\uff08uranium\uff09\u53ef\u7528\u65bc\u6838\u80fd\u8207\u6838\u6b66\u76f8\u95dc\u7528\u9014\uff0c\u9019\u4f7f\u5c40\u52e2\u5347\u7d1a\u98a8\u96aa\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US considers idea of special operation to seize Iran\u2019s uranium, Bloomberg News reports <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Yl838wChRX\">https:\/\/t.co\/Yl838wChRX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Yl838wChRX\">https:\/\/t.co\/Yl838wChRX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2030789441346781466?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 8, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8207\u5340\u57df\u52e2\u529b\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u653b\u64ca\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u8a2d\u65bd\u8207\u822a\u904b\u8def\u7dda\uff08shipping routes\uff0c\u8239\u96bb\u904b\u8f38\u822a\u7dda\uff09\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6cb9\u5e02\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u300c\u98a8\u96aa\u6ea2\u50f9\u300d\uff08risk premium\uff0c\u56e0\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u800c\u984d\u5916\u52a0\u4e0a\u7684\u50f9\u683c\uff09\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08traders\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5e02\u5834\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u5c07\u9577\u671f\u4e2d\u65b7\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7d0d\u5165\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u52a0\u5287\u901a\u81a8\u58d3\u529b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6cb9\u50f9\u5927\u6f32\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u9ad8\u5168\u7403\u901a\u81a8\uff08inflation\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\u666e\u904d\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u8ca8\u5e63\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brent \u672c\u6708\u4e0a\u6f32\u8fd1 <strong>60%<\/strong>\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u660e\u986f\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u8b93\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff08central banks\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u5229\u7387\u8207\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u66f4\u96e3\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8f03\u9ad8\u901a\u81a8\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u5ef6\u5f8c\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u300c\u5bec\u9b06\u300d\uff08easing\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u6216\u589e\u52a0\u5e02\u5834\u8cc7\u91d1\u3001\u8b93\u501f\u9322\u8b8a\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u8a08\u756b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d50\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u91d1\u878d\u689d\u4ef6\u6536\u7dca\uff08financial conditions tightening\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u63d0\u9ad8\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u66f4\u96e3\u53d6\u5f97\uff09\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u58d3\u6291\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6cb9\u76ee\u524d\u4ea4\u6613\u5728 <strong>102.00<\/strong> \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u5728\u5148\u524d\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u885d\u81f3 <strong>119.40 \u9ad8\u9ede<\/strong>\u5f8c\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u7a69\u5b9a\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u95dc\u5361<strong>100<\/strong>\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u6025\u6f32\u5f8c\u51fa\u73fe\u6574\u7406\uff08consolidation\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u5340\u9593\u5167\u4f86\u56de\u3001\u66ab\u505c\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u9ad4\u4ecd\u504f\u591a\uff08bullish\uff0c\u770b\u6f32\uff09\uff0c\u9022\u4f4e\u4ecd\u6709\u8cb7\u76e4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8da8\u52e2\u4ecd\u504f\u591a\u3002\u50f9\u683c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc\u5404\u689d\u300c\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u7dda\u300d\uff08moving averages\uff0c\u628a\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5e73\u5747\u5f8c\u756b\u6210\u7dda\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u770b\u8da8\u52e2\uff09\u3002<strong>5 \u65e5\u5747\u7dda\uff0895.30\uff09<\/strong>\u8207<strong>10 \u65e5\u5747\u7dda\uff0895.20\uff09<\/strong>\u5728\u73fe\u50f9\u4e0b\u65b9\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u8fd1\u7aef\u652f\u6490\u3002<strong>20 \u65e5\u5747\u7dda\uff0890.97\uff09<\/strong>\u8207<strong>30 \u65e5\u5747\u7dda\uff0882.70\uff09<\/strong>\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u63da\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u4e2d\u671f\u8da8\u52e2\u4ecd\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-35-1024x494.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-45838\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u91cd\u8981\u50f9\u4f4d\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u652f\u6490\uff1a<\/strong>100.00 \u2192 95.00 \u2192 90.00\uff08\u652f\u6490\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u6b62\u8dcc\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u963b\u529b\uff1a<\/strong>102.00 \u2192 105.00 \u2192 110.00\uff08\u963b\u529b\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u9047\u5230\u8ce3\u58d3\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u50f9\u683c\u76ee\u524d\u5728 <strong>100\u2013102 \u5340\u9593<\/strong>\u4e0a\u65b9\u6574\u7406\uff0c\u9019\u88e1\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u95dc\u9375\u5340\uff08pivot\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\u77ed\u671f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u80fd\u7ad9\u7a69\u4e26\u7a81\u7834 <strong>105.00<\/strong>\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e36\u52d5\u6f32\u52e2\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3 <strong>110.00<\/strong>\uff0c\u8cb7\u76e4\u589e\u5f37\u5247\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u518d\u4e0a\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0b\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c<strong>100.00<\/strong>\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u9053\u652f\u6490\u3002\u82e5\u8dcc\u7834\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u56de\u6a94\uff08pullback\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4fee\u6b63\uff09\u81f3 <strong>95.00<\/strong>\uff1b\u4f46\u9664\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u7dd2\u660e\u986f\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8f03\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u4fee\u6b63\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u8981\u770b\u4ec0\u9ebc<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6cb9\u5e02\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6d88\u606f\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u91cd\u9ede\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u66ff\u4ee3\u51fa\u53e3\u8def\u7dda\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u7684\u8f38\u6cb9\u7ba1\u7dda<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u80e1\u585e\u7b49\u5340\u57df\u52e2\u529b\u662f\u5426\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5347\u7d1a\u885d\u7a81<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u53ca\u5176\u5c0d\u4f9b\u61c9\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u8207\u592e\u884c\u53cd\u61c9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5e38\u898b\u554f\u984c<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p><strong>\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6cb9\u50f9\u6703\u5728 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u4e2d\u6771\u7dca\u5f35\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u4e14\u8377\u83ab\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u7b49\u95dc\u9375\u904b\u8f38\u8def\u7dda\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6cb9\u50f9\u6700\u8fd1\u6f32\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brent \u672c\u6708\u4e0a\u6f32\u8fd1 <strong>60%<\/strong>\uff1bWTI \u7d04\u5728 <strong>\u6bcf\u6876 100.98 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