{"id":43579,"date":"2026-03-27T17:42:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T17:42:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43579\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T17:42:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T17:42:39","slug":"%e9%ba%a5%e5%8f%af%c2%b7%e5%b7%b4%e7%88%be%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e5%84%98%e7%ae%a1%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e9%9f%8c%e6%80%a7%e4%bb%8d%e5%9c%a8%ef%bc%8c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e7%9a%84%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43579\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9ea5\u53ef\u00b7\u5df4\u723e\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u5118\u7ba1\u7d93\u6fdf\u97cc\u6027\u4ecd\u5728\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u885d\u64ca\u6050\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u3001\u5ef6\u5f8c\u964d\u606f"},"content":{"rendered":"\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u7406\u4e8b Michael Barr \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u885d\u64ca\u4e0b\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u97cc\u6027\uff08\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u58d3\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4e9b\u885d\u64ca\u8b93\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u66f4\u96e3\u9054\u6210 2% \u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff08inflation\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u9ad8\u65bc 2% \u7684\u6642\u9593\u62d6\u5f97\u8d8a\u4e45\uff0c\u8d8a\u53ef\u80fd\u300c\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u300d\uff08entrenched\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\u5927\u5bb6\u7fd2\u4ee5\u70ba\u5e38\u3001\u5f88\u96e3\u964d\u4e0b\u4f86\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u5f88\u5feb\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u9650\uff1b\u4f46\u82e5\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u7bc4\u570d\u53ef\u80fd\u64f4\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u82e5\u518d\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u6b21\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\uff08price shock\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u8df3\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u8b93\u901a\u81a8\u66f4\u96e3\u56de\u843d\uff08inflation persistence\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u9ecf\u8457\u5ea6\u9ad8\u3001\u964d\u5f97\u6162\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8b39\u614e\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u7a69\u5b9a\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\nBarr \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5728\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8abf\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u524d\uff0c\u82b1\u6642\u9593\u8a55\u4f30\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b8a\u5316\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u76e3\u7ba1\u8abf\u6574\u8207\u4eba\u529b\u7e2e\u6e1b\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u964d\u4f4e\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7a69\u5b9a\uff08financial system stability\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u4e0d\u6613\u51fa\u554f\u984c\uff09\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e26\u8b93\u9280\u884c\u7684\u97cc\u6027\uff08resilient\uff0c\u6297\u58d3\u80fd\u529b\uff09\u8b8a\u5dee\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u5c31\u696d\u6210\u9577\u8207\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff08labour force\uff0c\u9858\u610f\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff09\u6210\u9577\u5927\u81f4\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u4f46\u62db\u52df\u504f\u4f4e\u8b93\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u5831\u5c0e\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8ac7\u8a71\u652f\u6490\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u800c\u8207\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\uff08geopolitics\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u885d\u7a81\uff09\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4ecd\u5728\u3002\n\n\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6b63\u5728\u91cb\u51fa\u300c\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52d5\u300d\uff08prolonged pause\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u5148\u4e0d\u52d5\uff09\u7684\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u61c9\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u300c\u5f88\u5feb\u6703\u964d\u606f\u300d\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684 2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u4ecd\u70ba 3.1%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u9ad8\u65bc 2% \u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u964d\u606f\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\uff08pricing\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u4e2d\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u904e\u5ea6\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u82e5\u8981\u62bc\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u73fe\u72c0\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u7531\u57fa\u790e\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u5ef6\u4f38\u51fa\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728 SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\uff08SOFR futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387 SOFR \u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u4e0a\u8ce3\u51fa\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff0c\u8b93\u8cb7\u65b9\u6709\u6b0a\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\uff09\u3002\n\n\u9019\u4e9b\u8ac7\u8a71\u51f8\u986f\u5c40\u52e2\u8106\u5f31\uff1a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8d77\u4f0f\uff09\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u9ad8\u3002CBOE \u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578 VIX\uff08\u53cd\u6620\u6a19\u666e 500 \u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u7d04\u5728 15 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7576\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u4f4e\u6c34\u6e96\u5f80\u5f80\u96e3\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165 VIX \u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u6a19\u666e 500\uff08S&#038;P 500\uff09\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u8de8\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\uff08straddle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce2\u52d5\u8b8a\u5927\uff09\u4ee5\u5e03\u5c40\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5e03\u5c40\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f37<\/h3>\n\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u5f37\u662f\u660e\u78ba\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u4f86\u81ea\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u8b39\u614e\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u907f\u96aa\uff08safe-haven\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u5b89\u6642\u8cc7\u91d1\u504f\u597d\uff09\u7279\u6027\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578 DXY\uff08\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u5c0d\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u903c\u8fd1 106\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u81ea 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u4f86\u5c11\u898b\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u7528\u5916\u532f\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\u7dad\u6301\u505a\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u90e8\u4f4d\u8f03\u70ba\u7a69\u5065\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165 DXY \u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u6216\u900f\u904e\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff08futures contracts\uff0c\u7d04\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u653e\u7a7a\uff08shorting\uff0c\u62bc\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09EUR\/USD\uff08\u6b50\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4e5f\u8981\u7559\u610f\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u9ede\uff1a\u6700\u65b0 JOLTS\uff08\u8077\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u8207\u52de\u52d5\u6d41\u52d5\u8abf\u67e5\uff09\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u62db\u52df\u7387\uff08hiring rate\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u88ab\u96c7\u7528\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u964d\u5230 3.5%\uff0c\u662f 2025 \u5e74\u653e\u7de9\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u7684\u4f4e\u9ede\u3002\u82e5\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca0\u9762\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u53ef\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u62d6\u7d2f\u6d88\u8cbb\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u7372\u5229\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u907f\u96aa\uff08hedging\uff0c\u7528\u80a1\u7968\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\u964d\u4f4e\u640d\u5931\uff09\u65b9\u5f0f\u4fdd\u8b77\u9577\u671f\u6301\u80a1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8cb7\u5165 SPX \u6216 NDX\uff08\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5e02\u5834\u6307\u6578\uff09\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u8b93\u8cb7\u65b9\u6709\u6b0a\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5c0d\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u660e\u78ba\u8b66\u544a\u4e5f\u63d0\u9192\uff1a\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7a81\u767c\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u3002WTI\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u7d04\u6bcf\u6876 85 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u82e5\u60c5\u52e2\u5347\u7d1a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8f15\u6613\u7a81\u7834 2025 \u5e74\u7dca\u5f35\u6642\u671f\u898b\u5230\u7684 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8cb7\u5165 WTI \u6216 Brent\uff08\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\uff09\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u50f9\u5916\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08out-of-the-money call\uff0c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u73fe\u50f9\u3001\u6210\u672c\u8f03\u4f4e\uff09\u53ef\u7528\u8f03\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u62bc\u6ce8\u9019\u985e\u9ad8\u5f71\u97ff\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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