{"id":43569,"date":"2026-03-27T16:44:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T16:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/43569\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T16:44:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T16:44:29","slug":"%e5%9c%a8%e5%8e%9f%e6%b2%b9%e5%8b%95%e7%9b%aa%e4%b9%8b%e9%9a%9b%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%ef%bc%8f%e6%97%a5%e5%9c%93%e9%80%bc%e8%bf%91160%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%89%e9%80%b1%e5%85%a7%e8%87%aa152-10%e9%a3%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/43569\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5728\u539f\u6cb9\u52d5\u76ea\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\uff0f\u65e5\u5713\u903c\u8fd1160\uff0c\u4e09\u9031\u5167\u81ea152.10\u98c6\u5347\u5f8c\u5347\u81f3159.70"},"content":{"rendered":"\u9031\u56db USD\/JPY\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\u514c\u65e5\u5713\uff09\u4e0a\u6f32\u7d04 0.1%\uff0c\u5230\u7d04 159.70\uff0c\u76e4\u4e2d\u4e00\u5ea6\u89f8\u53ca\u7d04 159.85\u3002\u5b83\u5f9e 3 \u6708\u521d\u7d04 152.10 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\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u9032\u53e3\u4f86\u81ea\u4e2d\u6771\u3002\u8def\u900f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\u6b63\u5728\u8a55\u4f30\u662f\u5426\u5e72\u9810\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\uff08oil futures\uff1a\u7528\u4f86\u9396\u5b9a\u672a\u4f86\u8cb7\u8ce3\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5408\u7d04\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6e1b\u7de9\u65e5\u5713\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\n\n\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\uff08Bank of Japan\uff09\u5728 3 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 0.75%\u3002\u5f6d\u535a\u8abf\u67e5\u986f\u793a\uff0c37% \u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f 4 \u6708\u6703\u5347\u606f\uff08hike\uff1a\u8abf\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u5169\u500b\u6708\u524d\u7684 17%\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5169\u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08two-year yields\uff1a\u6301\u6709\u5169\u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u7684\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff09\u4e5f\u5347\u81f3 1996 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u9ad8\u9ede\u3002\n\n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Federal Reserve\uff09\u5728 3 \u6708 18 \u65e5\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.50% \u5230 3.75%\uff0c\u9ede\u9663\u5716\uff08dot plot\uff1a\u5b98\u54e1\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u5716\u8868\uff09\u6307\u5411\u4eca\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u628a 2026 \u5e74\u6838\u5fc3 PCE\uff08core PCE\uff1a\u4e0d\u542b\u98df\u54c1\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0a\u4fee\u81f3 2.7%\uff0c\u9031\u4e94\u5c07\u516c\u5e03\u5bc6\u897f\u6839\u5927\u5b78\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff08sentiment\uff1a\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u8207\u4e00\u5e74\u671f\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff1a\u6c11\u773e\u9810\u4f30\u672a\u4f86\u7269\u50f9\u6f32\u5e45\uff09\u7684\u6578\u64da\u3002\n\n<h3>\u65e5\u5713\u8207\u6ce2\u52d5\u7b56\u7565\u542b\u610f<\/h3>\n\u81ea\u65e5\u672c\u7576\u5c40\u53bb\u5e74\u51fa\u624b\u652f\u6490\u65e5\u5713\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u60c5\u52e2\u5df2\u6709\u8b8a\u5316\u3002USD\/JPY 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\u52d2\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\uff08strangle\uff1a\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u8207\u770b\u6f32\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u7d04 150.00 \u8207 156.00 \u7684\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u5f9e\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6ce2\u52d5\u9810\u671f\uff09\u5df2\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u8d85\u904e 14% \u964d\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\u63a5\u8fd1 9%\u3002\n\n\u82e5\u770b\u6cd5\u66f4\u504f\u65b9\u5411\u6027\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u505a\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\uff08carry trade\uff1a\u501f\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8ca8\u5e63\u3001\u8cb7\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u8ca8\u5e63\u4ee5\u8cfa\u5229\u5dee\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u9000\u5834\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u65e5\u5713\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8f49\u5f37\u8f03\u70ba\u4fdd\u5b88\u3002\u8cb7\u5165 USD\/JPY \u770b\u8dcc\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08puts\uff1a\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\uff0c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9 150.00\u3001\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u5728 4 \u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u6216 5 \u6708\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u6709\u9650\u98a8\u96aa\uff08defined-risk\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u640d\u5931\u53ef\u5148\u78ba\u5b9a\uff09\u65b9\u5f0f\u628a\u63e1\u9019\u500b\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u628a\u532f\u50f9\u63a8\u5411 160.00 \u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\u5df2\u660e\u986f\u53cd\u8f49\u3002\n\n\u66f4\u7d30\u7dfb\u7684\u4f5c\u6cd5\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u504f\u7a7a\u98a8\u96aa\u9006\u8f49\uff08bearish risk 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