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futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u9280\u884c\u540c\u696d\u62c6\u501f\u5229\u7387\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u66f2\u7dda\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u9686\u8d77\u300d\uff08hump\uff0c\u6307\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u9810\u671f\u8f03\u9ad8\u3001\u4e4b\u5f8c\u56de\u843d\u7684\u5f62\u72c0\uff09\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u5f8c\u7e8c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u5411\u8abf\u6574\u3002\n\n\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5728\u8a0a\u606f\u50b3\u9054\u4e0a\u9762\u81e8\u53d6\u6368\uff1a\u82e5\u8a9e\u6c23\u504f\u9d3f\u6d3e\uff08dovish\uff0c\u6307\u8f03\u50be\u5411\u5bec\u9b06\u3001\u8f03\u4e0d\u6025\u8457\u5347\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u82e5\u4e0a\u79fb\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u9577\u7aef\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08long-end yields\uff0c\u6307\u9577\u5929\u671f\u50b5\u5238\u5229\u7387\uff09\uff1b\u82e5\u8a9e\u6c23\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u6307\u8f03\u50be\u5411\u7dca\u7e2e\u3001\u8f03\u7a4d\u6975\u5347\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u53ef\u80fd\u8f49\u5411\u6210\u9577\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u4f3c\u4e4e\u76f8\u4fe1\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11\u6703\u5347\u606f 2 \u6b21\uff0c\u4e14\u5c0d 4 \u6708\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u606f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5b9a\u50f9\u9ad8\u9054\u7d04 60%\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u901a\u81a8\u521d\u503c\uff08flash estimate\uff0c\u6307\u5148\u884c\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u4f30\u8a08\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3 2.8%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u80fd\u6e90\u5e36\u52d5\uff0c\u8b93\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u5347\u9ad8\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u504f\u5f37\u786c\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u4ee3\u8868\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u70ba\u504f\u9df9\u884c\u52d5\u505a\u6e96\u5099\u3002\n\n<h3>Euribor \u66f2\u7dda\u4ea4\u6613<\/h3>\n\u4e3b\u8981\u8b8a\u6578\u4ecd\u662f\u6cb9\u50f9\uff0c\u9019\u8b93\u592e\u884c\u9677\u5165\u5169\u96e3\u3002\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u7ad9\u4e0a\u6bcf\u6876 92 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u82e5\u4f9b\u7d66\u518d\u53d7\u5e72\u64fe\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u66f4\u679c\u65b7\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u50f9\u683c\u87ba\u65cb\u3002\u9019\u8207\u62c9\u52a0\u5fb7\u5148\u524d\u300c\u5ffd\u7565\u77ed\u671f\u885d\u64ca\u300d\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u5f62\u6210\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\n\n\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u904b\u7528 Euribor \u671f\u8ca8\u5e8f\u5217\uff08futures strip\uff0c\u6307\u4e00\u4e32\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u300c\u9686\u8d77\u300d\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u77ed\u671f\u6703\u5347\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6703\u90e8\u5206\u56de\u843d\u3002\u505a\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\uff1a\u653e\u7a7a\u8fd1\u6708\u671f\u8ca8\uff08shorting near-term futures\uff0c\u6307\u62bc\u6ce8\u8fd1\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u8f03\u9577\u5929\u671f\u5408\u7d04\uff08buying longer-dated contracts\uff0c\u6307\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5229\u7387\u56de\u843d\u3001\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e03\u5c40\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u964d\u606f\u6216\u8f49\u5bec\u9b06\uff08easing\uff0c\u6307\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u6216\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u9b06\uff09\u3002\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u66f2\u7dda\u5f62\u72c0\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u731c\u5229\u7387\u55ae\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u4e0b\u3002\n\n\u8003\u91cf\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u9700\u8981\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u8207\u907f\u514d\u8870\u9000\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u6ce2\u52d5\uff08volatility\uff0c\u6307\u50f9\u683c\u8d77\u4f0f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u503c\u5f97\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u8207\u592e\u884c\u8a0a\u865f\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u5e36\u4f86\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff08options\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u671f\u9650\u5167\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u8cb7\u5165\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u82e5\u5728 4 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u524d\uff0c\u5c0d\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\uff08German Bund futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u5fb7\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u8de8\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\uff08straddle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u9032\u540c\u5c65\u7d04\u50f9\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u4f46\u4e0d\u62bc\u65b9\u5411\uff09\uff0c\u82e5\u592e\u884c\u610f\u5916\u504f\u9d3f\u6216\u504f\u9df9\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u3002\n\n\u9577\u5929\u671f\u901a\u81a8\u4ea4\u63db\u4ecd\u76f8\u5c0d\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u5834\u76f8\u4fe1\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u6709\u5de5\u5177\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u81a8\uff1b\u9019\u7a2e\u4fe1\u8b7d\u4f86\u81ea\u5148\u524d\u5f37\u52e2\u5347\u606f\u5faa\u74b0\uff08aggressive hiking cycle\uff0c\u6307\u5feb\u901f\u4e14\u5e45\u5ea6\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u5347\u606f\u968e\u6bb5\uff09\uff0c\u8a72\u5faa\u74b0\u5728 2025 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