{"id":40969,"date":"2026-03-25T19:00:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T19:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40969\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T19:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T19:00:18","slug":"2%e6%9c%88%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e6%9c%88%e5%ba%a6%e5%87%ba%e5%8f%a3%e5%83%b9%e6%a0%bc%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8%e4%b8%8a%e5%8d%871-5%ef%bc%8c%e9%ab%98%e6%96%bc0-5%e7%9a%84%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40969\/","title":{"rendered":"2\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6708\u5ea6\u51fa\u53e3\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u53471.5%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc0.5%\u7684\u9810\u6e2c"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\uff08Export Price Index\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff092 \u6708\u6708\u589e 1.5%\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u7684 0.5%\u3002\n\n\u516c\u5e03\u7d50\u679c\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u9ad8 1.0 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u767c\u5e03\u5c07\u5be6\u969b\u6578\u5b57\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7576\u6708\u7684\u9810\u671f\u4f5c\u6bd4\u8f03\u3002\n\n<h3>\u51fa\u53e3\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u6f32\u986f\u793a\u901a\u81a8\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u5728<\/h3>\n2 \u6708\u51fa\u53e3\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\u6708\u589e 1.5%\uff0c\u662f\u660e\u986f\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff08Inflation\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u589e\u5e45\u9054\u5230\u9810\u671f\u7684 3 \u500d\u3002\u9019\u8868\u793a\u50f9\u683c\u58d3\u529b\u6c92\u6709\u5982\u6211\u5011\u539f\u5148\u9810\u4f30\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u660e\u986f\u964d\u6eab\u3002\u9019\u9805\u6578\u64da\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u66f4\u64d4\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u5ea6\u8b8a\u5f97\u96e3\u4ee5\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\n\n\u9019\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u4e5f\u63a5\u7e8c\u8fd1\u671f 2 \u6708 CPI\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8cfc\u7269\u6210\u672c\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u6578\u64da\uff1bCPI \u5e74\u589e 3.4%\uff08year-over-year\uff0c\u8207\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u76f8\u6bd4\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u6a23\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u3002\u672c\u6708\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5b98\u54e1\u614b\u5ea6\u8f49\u8da8\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5728 1 \u6708\u4e00\u5ea6\u62bc\u6ce8\u7684\u300c\u504f\u5bec\u9b06\u300d\uff08dovish\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u653e\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u8f49\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u5f80\u5f8c\u5ef6\uff1b\u4f9d CME FedWatch\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6a5f\u7387\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c6 \u6708\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u5df2\u4f4e\u65bc 20%\u3002\n\n\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff08bond market\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u501f\u6b3e\u7528\u7684\u50b5\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u5e02\u5834\uff09\u4e5f\u5728\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u6700\u654f\u611f\u7684 2 \u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08Treasury yield\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u516c\u50b5\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff09\u56de\u5347\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1 4.95%\uff0c\u70ba 2025 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u672a\u898b\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u53d7\u76ca\u65bc\u300c\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6a94\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\uff08higher-for-longer\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u6613\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u8abf\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8ce3\u51fa\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff08short-term interest rate futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u70ba\u6a19\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff09\uff0c\u5982 SOFR \u671f\u8ca8\uff08\u4ee5\u9694\u591c\u64d4\u4fdd\u878d\u8cc7\u5229\u7387 SOFR \u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u3002\u4e5f\u53ef\u8cb7\u5165\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u671f\u8ca8\u7684\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08put options\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\uff09\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c96\uff08hedge\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u964d\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\n\n\u901a\u81a8\u6301\u7e8c\u504f\u9ad8\u3001\u4e14\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u50be\u5411\u5347\u606f\u6216\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u6703\u58d3\u6291\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u7b49\u6210\u9577\u578b\u985e\u80a1\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5df2\u770b\u5230 VIX\uff08\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u5834\u6050\u614c\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5f9e 1 \u6708\u4f4e\u9ede 13 \u5347\u81f3 10 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