{"id":40939,"date":"2026-03-25T08:59:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T08:59:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40939\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T08:59:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T08:59:04","slug":"inging-%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%e5%a0%b1%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9anbh-%e5%b0%87%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e7%b6%ad%e6%8c%81%e5%9c%a8-6-25%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e6%9d%b1%e6%88%b0%e7%88%ad%e5%be%8c%e8%bd%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40939\/","title":{"rendered":"INGING \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5831\u544a\uff1aNBH \u5c07\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728 6.25%\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u6230\u722d\u5f8c\u8f49\u8da8\u9df9\u6d3e\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"ING \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6 Peter Virovacz \u8207 Zolt\u00e1n Homolya \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u570b\u5bb6\u9280\u884c\uff08NBH\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u5728 2026 \u5e74 3 \u6708 24 \u65e5\u5c07\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\uff08\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 6.25%\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u6771\u6230\u722d\u8207\u76f8\u95dc\u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u76ea\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7acb\u5834\u8f49\u70ba\u66f4\u504f\u300c\u9df9\u6d3e\u300d\uff08\u504f\u5411\u6536\u7dca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u504f\u597d\u5347\u606f\u6216\u5ef6\u5f8c\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u6291\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u5011\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2 \u6708\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u81a8\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u80fd\u6e90\u8207\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6240\u6709\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u901a\u81a8\uff09\u964d\u81f3 10 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band\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6ce2\u52d5\u7bc4\u570d\uff09\u5167\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u4e5f\u9810\u671f\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u7d93\u7531\u8377\u83ab\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u904b\u8f38\u822a\u9053\uff09\u7684\u822a\u904b\u6d41\u91cf\uff08flows\uff0c\u8239\u8236\u8207\u8ca8\u7269\u6d41\u52d5\uff09\u5728\u590f\u5b63\u524d\u53ef\u6062\u5fa9\u6b63\u5e38\u3002\n\n\u5728\u9019\u689d\u8def\u5f91\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u6e2c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u672b\u6709\u7a7a\u9593\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5e74\u5e95\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u70ba 6.00%\u3002\u5728\u300c\u9577\u671f\u6230\u722d\u300d\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff08\u4ed6\u5011\u7d66 30% \u6a5f\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u9810\u671f\u798f\u6797\uff08forint\uff0c\u5308\u7259\u5229\u8ca8\u5e63\uff09\u9700\u8981\u984d\u5916\u652f\u6490\uff0c\u4e14 NBH \u6703\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u5b63\u6bd4\u7167\u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff0c\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff09\u9032\u884c\u5169\u6b21\u5347\u606f\u3002\n\n\u672c\u6587\u4f7f\u7528 AI \u5de5\u5177\u7522\u51fa\u4e26\u7531\u7de8\u8f2f\u5be9\u6838\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5e02\u5834\u7126\u9ede\u8f49\u5411\u98a8\u96aa<\/h3>\n\u76ee\u524d\u8655\u65bc\u76f8\u5c0d\u6709\u5229\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba 2 \u6708\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u81a8\u70ba 3.5%\uff0c\u662f 10 \u5e74\u65b0\u4f4e\uff0c\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u5c0d\u6297\u5916\u90e8\u50f9\u683c\u885d\u64ca\u7684\u7de9\u885d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\u683c\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u4e00\u5ea6\u98c6\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876 110 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u89e3\u91cb\u4e86\u592e\u884c\u70ba\u4f55\u8f49\u70ba\u66f4\u504f\u9df9\u6d3e\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u8a55\u4f30\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u570b\u5167\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7de9\u3002\n\n\u798f\u6797\u5df2\u51fa\u73fe\u58d3\u529b\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u4e0a\u9031\u514c\u6b50\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u5230 405 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u8b93\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77 2022 \u5e74\u7684\u5287\u70c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u532f\u7387\u8d70\u5f31\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u592e\u884c\u7dad\u6301\u5f37\u786c\u7acb\u5834\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\u3002\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u8a18\u5f97\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6559\u8a13\uff1a\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u628a\u901a\u81a8\u63a8\u5347\u5230\u5169\u4f4d\u6578\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u5927\u5e45\u6536\u7dca\u3002\n\n\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u8207\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5347\u606f\u7684\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7b56\u7565\uff08options strategies\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b0a\u5229\u91d1\u63db\u53d6\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u689d\u4ef6\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6b50\u5143\/\u798f\u6797\uff08EUR\/HUF\uff09\u532f\u7387\u7684\u8de8\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\uff08straddle\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u8cb7\u6b0a\u8207\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u8cfa\u53d6\u4e0d\u8ad6\u6f32\u8dcc\u3001\u53ea\u8981\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u884c\u60c5\uff09\u3002\u798f\u6797\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u7684\u96b1\u542b\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7528\u9078\u64c7\u6b0a\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u300c\u9810\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u300d\uff09\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u9031\u5df2\u4e0a\u5347 15%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u7a2e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\n\n\u9060\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5354\u8b70\uff08forward rate agreement, 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