{"id":40917,"date":"2026-03-25T06:59:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T06:59:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40917\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T06:59:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T06:59:27","slug":"%e8%8a%9d%e5%8a%a0%e5%93%a5%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e7%b8%bd%e8%a3%81%e5%a5%a7%e6%96%af%e5%9d%a6%e3%83%bb%e5%8f%a4%e7%88%be%e6%96%af%e6%af%94%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40917\/","title":{"rendered":"\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u806f\u6e96\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u5967\u65af\u5766\u30fb\u53e4\u723e\u65af\u6bd4\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u5a01\u8105\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u8207\u5c31\u696d\uff0c\u5371\u53ca\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6cd5\u5b9a\u4f7f\u547d"},"content":{"rendered":"\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u806f\u6e96\u9280\u884c\uff08Chicago Fed\uff09\u7e3d\u88c1\u5967\u65af\u5766\u30fb\u53e4\u723e\u65af\u6bd4\uff08Austan Goolsbee\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u5e45\u8b8a\u52d5\uff08energy shocks\uff0c\u6307\u6cb9\u6c23\u7b49\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u5287\u70c8\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u6703\u540c\u6642\u5f71\u97ff\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u7684\u5169\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6a19\uff1a\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u8207\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u592e\u884c\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1b\u662f\u5426\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6230\u4e8b\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u591a\u4e45\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u81a8\u662f\u5426\u6301\u7e8c\u6539\u5584\u3002\n\n\u622a\u81f3\u767c\u7a3f\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\uff08US Dollar Index\uff0cDXY\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5c0d\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff09\u4e0a\u6f32 0.09%\uff0c\u5831 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Committee\uff0cFOMC\uff1b\u8ca0\u8cac\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u6a5f\u69cb\uff09\u4e3b\u5c0e\u3002FOMC \u5171\u6709 12 \u4f4d\u5b98\u54e1\uff1a7 \u4f4d\u7406\u4e8b\uff08governors\uff09\u3001\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u6e96\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca 4 \u4f4d\u63a1\u4e00\u5e74\u8f2a\u503c\u7684\u5730\u5340\u806f\u6e96\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u3002\n\n\u5728\u5371\u6a5f\u6216\u901a\u81a8\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u6642\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\uff08Quantitative Easing\uff0cQE\uff1b\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u9032\u9ad8\u4fe1\u7528\u7b49\u7d1a\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u628a\u8cc7\u91d1\u6ce8\u5165\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u58d3\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u8b93\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u91cf\u5316\u7dca\u7e2e\uff08Quantitative Tightening\uff0cQT\uff1b\u8207 QE \u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7e2e\u6e1b\u8cb7\u50b5\u6216\u964d\u4f4e\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u898f\u6a21\uff09\u5247\u5e38\u652f\u6490\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\n\n\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5287\u70c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u6b63\u8b93\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u9762\u81e8\u91cd\u5927\u96e3\u984c\uff1a\u65e2\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u5f31\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5f88\u68d8\u624b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff08monetary policy\uff1b\u592e\u884c\u7528\u4f86\u5f71\u97ff\u5229\u7387\u8207\u8cc7\u91d1\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u56de\u61c9\u4e26\u4e0d\u660e\u78ba\uff0c\u8b93\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5229\u7387\u52d5\u4f5c\u8b8a\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u4e5f\u5df2\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u6620\uff1a\u8fd1\u671f\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u7dca\u5f35\u4f7f WTI \u539f\u6cb9\uff08WTI crude oil\uff1b\u7f8e\u570b\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8cea\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u6e96\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5927\u6f32\u8d85\u904e 15%\uff0c\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876\u7d04 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u5f71\u97ff\u4e86 2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0cCPI\uff1b\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u822c\u5bb6\u5ead\u8cfc\u8cb7\u5546\u54c1\u8207\u670d\u52d9\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u901a\u81a8\u4ecd\u5728 3.8% \u7684\u9ad8\u6a94\uff0c\u8b93\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u9031\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u66f4\u5927\u3002\n\n<h3>\u9019\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u4ee3\u8868\u4ec0\u9ebc<\/h3>\n\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u671f\u5f85\u4eca\u5e74\u964d\u606f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u8981\u770b\u5230\u901a\u81a8\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u591a\u6539\u5584\u3002\u6839\u64da CME FedWatch\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240 FedWatch\uff1b\u7528\u671f\u8ca8\u50f9\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u5347\u964d\u606f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d 6 \u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u5df2\u964d\u5230 20% \u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8207\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u524d\u8d85\u904e 70% \u76f8\u6bd4\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u8f49\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6b63\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u6703\u300c\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u6a94\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\u3002\n\n\u5c0d\u884d\u751f\u6027\u5546\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff1b\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u6a19\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u5982\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u6307\u6578\u3001\u532f\u7387\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u7f8e\u5143\u504f\u5f37\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u76ee\u524d\u7d04\u5728 99.23\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f\u88ab\u5ef6\u5f8c\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u652f\u6490\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8003\u616e\u8cb7\u5165\u8ffd\u8e64\u7f8e\u5143\u7684 ETF\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4ea4\u6613\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u7684\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff08call options\uff1b\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8cb7\u5165\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u63e1\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u7834 100 \u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\n\n\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u5347\u9ad8\u4e0b\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u8b8a\u5927\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u65b0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u5287\u70c8\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u9069\u5408\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u8cb7\u5165\u8ce3\u6b0a\uff08puts\uff1b\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7d04\u5b9a\u50f9\u683c\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u6b0a\u5229\uff09\u6216\u8cb7\u6b0a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u55ae\u62bc\u67d0\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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