{"id":40729,"date":"2026-03-23T16:58:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T16:58:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/40729\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T16:58:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T16:58:54","slug":"%e6%b3%95%e5%9c%8b%e8%88%88%e6%a5%ad%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e5%9c%a8%e7%b7%8a%e7%b8%ae%e7%96%91%e6%85%ae%e4%b8%8b%e8%8b%b1%e5%9c%8b%e5%85%ac%e5%82%b5%e6%ae%96%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/live-updates\/40729\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6cd5\u570b\u8208\u696d\u9280\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u7dca\u7e2e\u7591\u616e\u4e0b\u82f1\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u89f8\u53ca5%\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08MPC\uff09\u5c07\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u81f32026\u5e74"},"content":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u570b 10 \u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\uff08gilt\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u767c\u884c\u7684\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff08\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u5831\u916c\u7387\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8868\u793a\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u6ce2\u62cb\u552e\uff08\u5927\u91cf\u8ce3\u51fa\u5c0e\u81f4\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u5f8c\u5347\u81f3 5%\uff0c\u5275 2008 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u4e0a\u5347\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5347\u606f\uff08tightening\uff0c\u6536\u7dca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09 \u7684\u9810\u671f\u5b9a\u50f9\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u8b8a\u52d5\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u82f1\u570b\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52e2\uff08path of interest rates\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u5982\u4f55\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff09\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u51fa\u73fe\u8abf\u6574\u3002\n\n\u6700\u65b0\u9810\u6e2c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08MPC\uff0cMonetary Policy Committee\uff0c\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c\u8ca0\u8cac\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u8def\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff08staying on hold\uff0c\u4e0d\u5347\u4e5f\u4e0d\u964d\uff09\u76f4\u5230 2026 \u5e74\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\uff08energy shock\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u53d7\u5e72\u64fe\u6216\u50f9\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u5f71\u97ff\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u3002\u5831\u5c0e\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4e2d\u6771\u5730\u5340\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\uff08energy infrastructure\uff0c\u5982\u6cb9\u6c23\u7530\u3001\u7ba1\u7dda\u3001\u7149\u6cb9\u8a2d\u65bd\uff09\u906d\u653b\u64ca\uff0c\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u80fd\u6e90\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\n\n<h3>Market Expectations Shift<\/h3>\n\u672c\u9031\u5c07\u6709\u591a\u4f4d MPC \u6210\u54e1 Greene\u3001Taylor \u8207 Breeden \u7684\u8ac7\u8a71\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u6703\u516c\u5e03\u65b0\u7684\u82f1\u570b\u6578\u64da\u30023 \u6708\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6578\uff08PMI\uff0cPurchasing Managers\u2019 Index\uff0c\u4ee5\u554f\u5377\u8861\u91cf\u4f01\u696d\u666f\u6c23\uff1b50 \u4ee5\u4e0a\u4ee3\u8868\u64f4\u5f35\u300150 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u4ee3\u8868\u840e\u7e2e\uff09\u5373\u5c07\u767c\u5e03\uff0c\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u89c0\u5bdf\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efd\u6307\u6a19\u3002\n\n\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u9280\u884c\u9810\u4f30 3 \u6708\u901a\u81a8\uff08inflation\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u6f32\uff09\u70ba\u5e74\u589e 3.5%\uff08year on year\uff0c\u8207\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u76f8\u6bd4\uff09\uff0c\u9ad8\u65bc\u5148\u524d\u9810\u4f30\u7684\u5e74\u589e 3.1%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u8207\u71c3\u6599\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4f7f\u7528 AI \u5de5\u5177\u7522\u51fa\u4e26\u7531\u7de8\u8f2f\u5be9\u95b1\u3002\n\n\u5e02\u5834\u628a 10 \u5e74\u671f\u82f1\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u63a8\u5230 5% \u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u904e\u5ea6\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a5f\u6703\u3002SONIA \u9060\u671f\u66f2\u7dda\uff08SONIA forward curve\uff0c\u4ee5 SONIA \u5229\u7387\u63a8\u7b97\u672a\u4f86\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\uff1bSONIA \u662f\u82f1\u938a\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6a19\u5229\u7387\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u628a\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u81f3\u5c11\u5169\u6b21\u5404 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff08basis point\uff0cbp\uff1b1 bp = 0.01%\uff0c25 bp = 0.25%\uff09\u7684\u5347\u606f\u7d0d\u5165\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u500b\u770b\u6cd5\u4e0d\u5c0d\u3002\u9019\u8b93\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6709\u660e\u78ba\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u5e03\u5c40\u82f1\u570b\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\u6216\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u9ede\u64ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u9019\u88e1<\/a>\u5275\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5be6\u8cec\u6236 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u82f1\u570b10\u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u98c6\u78345%\u527508\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\uff01\u5e02\u5834\u62bc\u6ce8\u82f1\u592e\u884c\u518d\u5347\u606f\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u98a8\u96aa\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u81a8\uff1b\u4f46\u5206\u6790\u7a31\u53cd\u61c9\u904e\u5ea6\uff0c\u53cd\u6210\u5e03\u5c40\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u6ed1\u826f\u6a5f\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40729\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}